Recently, the Chinese peopleBank(Hereinafter referred to as “the central bank”) The party committee conveyed and learned the spirit of the tenth meeting of the Central Finance and Economics Committee. The meeting clearly stated that “promoting common prosperity as the starting point and focus of financial work” and made relevant arrangements.In addition, on August 23, the central bank held a financial institutioncurrencyCreditSituation analysis forum. Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, emphasized, “We must continue to do a good job in cross-cycle design, and link up credit work in the second half of this year and the first half of next year.”
So, combined with the cross-cycle design, how will “taking the promotion of common prosperity as the starting point and focus of financial work” affect the monetary policy and credit investment in the second half of this year and next year?
Minsheng BankChief researcher Wen Bin said in an interview with a reporter from the Securities Daily that generally speaking, credit has a seasonal release rhythm, which is usually allocated at a rate of 30% in the first quarter, 30% in the second quarter, and 20% in the third and fourth quarters. From last year’s point of view, due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, credit investment has played an important role in fighting the epidemic and maintaining the stable operation of the economy.
According to the financial statistics for 2020 released by the central bank previously, RMB loans increased by 19.63 trillion yuan last year, an increase of 2.82 trillion yuan year-on-year.
“Since the beginning of this year, my country’s macro leverage ratio has declined, but it has remained at a relatively high level. Therefore, we must adhere to a prudent monetary policy and not engage in’flood flooding’. Credit investment must pay more attention to structure and focus more on the real economy. Areas.” Wen Bin believes that credit supply will continue to accelerate in the next few months. Under the condition that the total amount maintains a reasonable growth, it is expected that the whole year of this yearNew creditThe scale will exceed 20 trillion yuan. From a structural point of view, since the promotion of common prosperity is taken as the starting point and focus of financial work, we will first increase support in the areas of inclusive finance and rural revitalization.
CITIC SecuritiesChief FICCAnalystObviously, he also believes that in the next step, the monetary policy that focuses on promoting common prosperity will become more structural and invest more in the weak links of the economy. “Strengthening inclusive finance, increasing structural support for small and micro enterprises and difficult industries, helping small and medium enterprises and difficult industries continue to recover, and alleviating employment pressure is one of the directions.” Mingming said.
The central bank made it clear at the above-mentioned communication and learning meeting that “we must continue to do a good job in financial services for rural revitalization and financial assistance, strengthen rural financial infrastructure and financial service system construction, and promote common prosperity for farmers and rural areas.” Prior to this, the Party Committee of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission also proposed to “optimize the allocation of financial resources, support weak links in the economy and society, and promote common prosperity. Continue to implement a series of relief policies and vigorously develop inclusive finance.”
In Wen Bin’s view, there is still a lot of room for growth in infrastructure investment. In the first half of this year, fiscal expenditures and the issuance of local special bonds slowed down compared with the past two years. In the coming months, fiscal expenditures and the issuance of local special bonds are expected to accelerate, which will also help expand infrastructure investment. This year is the beginning of the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. Some major infrastructure projects will accelerate their construction. This requires the concerted efforts of fiscal and monetary policies.BankThe credit funds of the company will also increase the investment in this field accordingly, as supporting funds for support.
“In the next stage, including the latter part of this year and the beginning of next year, credit investment will match the needs of the real economy and the progress of project investment, and will change the past seasonal investment rhythm.” Wen Bin said that we also need to see that in order to increase Support for the real economy, some small and medium-sizedBankFacing the pressure of funds, it also needs to further replenish capital through multiple channels to improve its credit allocation and anti-risk capabilities.
“In the future, more attention will be paid to the coordinated development of financial regions, and credit support to underdeveloped areas and areas with slow credit growth will be increased. At the same time, financial poverty alleviation needs to be expanded, and the amount of re-lending and rediscounting for supporting agriculture, supporting small businesses and poverty alleviation will be increased. .” Obviously said.
(Source: Securities Daily)
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