This adjustment has not yet ended, and the turning point has not yet appeared. The second half of the year is still very critical.
(June 25, 2023)The summer is long and the heat is approaching.
The summer solstice has passed, and in the rare high temperature weather, the market is still waiting for possible favorable policies.
The trend of the general environment is not completely consistent with the temperature, and more and more voices are constantly predicting that a new round of real estate stabilization policies will be introduced soon.
But there is no doubt that the operating mode of the real estate market has undergone fundamental changes. Will the logic of the past still work?
On June 20, Beijing ushered in 7 housing land transfers, all of which were sold, with a total transaction value of 18.9 billion yuan. So far, all 23 land plots in the list of commercial residential land projects to be supplied in Beijing’s first round have been sold, with a transfer scale of about 98 hectares, a planned construction area of about 1.81 million square meters, and a total land transaction value of about 71.2 billion yuan.
From the perspective of June alone, a total of 17 lands have been sold; from the perspective of land acquisition companies, they are basically central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and urban investment companies.
Among them, Poly has won three lands individually or jointly, with a total investment of about 6.48 billion yuan; Beijing Investment Development has a cumulative amount of about 7.86 billion yuan; China Merchants Shekou, which has the largest number of land acquisitions, has a cumulative amount of about 8.78 billion yuan.
In addition, local state-owned enterprises such as Yuexiu and C&D have also maintained the pace of expansion in the current market.
This is only the performance of Beijing, a first-tier city.
On the whole, the “January-June New Land Reserve Report of Real Estate Enterprises” released by Guandian Index shows that during the reporting period, the top 50 real estate enterprises added 30.17 million square meters of land construction area, a year-on-year decrease of 29.7%.
The decline has narrowed a little, but it is still in the decline range.
For example, since the beginning of this year, there are only 8 real estate companies with a new full-caliber land reserve area of more than 1 million square meters, which is 3 fewer than in 2022; there are only 15 real estate companies with more than 500,000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.
According to statistics, Vanke currently has the largest land acquisition area, with a new full-caliber land reserve of 2.571 million square meters; China Resources Land has the largest land investment, and the corresponding land acquisition expenditure is 28.94 billion yuan.
Corresponding to the acquisition of land is naturally sales. Judging from the sales performance of real estate companies from January to May 2023 released by the Viewpoint Index at the beginning of the month, the total equity sales of the top 100 real estate companies in May were 363.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, and a month-on-month decrease of 10.8% %. From January to May, the cumulative equity sales of the top 100 real estate companies were 1,931.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%.
From the data of the most authoritative Bureau of Statistics, from January to May, the national real estate development investment was 4,570.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, and the decline increased by 1 percentage point from the previous month; the sales area of commercial housing was 464.4 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% ; The sales of commercial housing were 4,978.7 billion yuan, an increase of 8.4%, and the growth rate narrowed by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
In terms of single-month data, the national sales of commercial housing in May were 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the growth rate narrowed by 21.1 percentage points from the previous month.
Most analysts believe that the current real estate market has failed to continue the recovery trend, and this situation will also be maintained in June.
This is not a shot in the arm for the real estate industry and enterprises in transition.
So, the next step is to continue to wait for the introduction of favorable policies, or is there a better choice? At least from the current performance of the land market, the confidence of real estate companies is still not stable, and the demand for home purchases is still in the fantasy of the industry.
Obviously, this adjustment has not yet ended, and the turning point has not yet appeared, and the second half of the year is still very critical.
From August 7th to 10th, Viewpoint will continue to hold the 2023 Boao Real Estate Forum and a series of activities in Hainan. The Boao Real Estate Development Conference is the purest and most professional real estate exchange platform. There are many heavyweight industry guests here to discuss real estate way out of the market.