Sichuan’s power supply guarantee this summer is expected to face less pressure compared to last year, despite the potential for a power gap of about 7.5 million kilowatts during peak hours, according to the Sichuan Supervision Office of the National Energy Administration. The increase in precipitation in many parts of Sichuan has improved hydropower supply, and although the average rainfall is slightly lower than previous years, it is higher than last year, indicating a potentially better supply of hydropower.
Last year, extreme high temperatures and drought caused a significant power shortage in Sichuan of nearly 20 million kilowatts. This is concerning as Sichuan heavily relies on hydropower, which accounts for approximately 80% of its power generation. The reduction in hydropower generation due to decreased rainfall has added to the pressure on power supply in Sichuan.
The Sichuan Energy Supervision Office expects a medium-to-high speed growth in electricity load this summer, with a maximum power demand load of 66 million kilowatts, compared to 59.1 million kilowatts last year. While there is still pressure on power supply guarantee in Sichuan, it is lower than the same period last year.
The demand for electricity in Sichuan has continued to rise this year, with a 6.1% year-on-year increase in electricity consumption from January to May, exceeding the national average growth rate. The Sichuan Energy Supervision Office estimates a power shortage of about 7.5 million kilowatts during the Chengdu Universiade, highlighting the challenging situation in ensuring the safe and stable operation of the power grid.
However, there are several factors contributing to reduced pressure on power supply this year. The average temperature during the flood season is expected to be higher than normal but lower than last year. Additionally, the estimated power gap of 7.5 million kilowatts is significantly smaller than the 20 million kilowatts experienced last year. Measures such as cross-regional regulation and the rapid growth of local thermal power have helped alleviate the pressure. Sichuan has also implemented a market-based response plan to adjust the time-of-use electricity price mechanism and guide power customers to actively shift peaks and adjust production.
Despite these improvements, Sichuan recently experienced heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding, affecting over 148,000 people in several cities. However, the Sichuan Provincial Meteorological Service Center predicts that water supply during the flood season will improve this year, potentially guaranteeing a certain level of water and electricity supply.
Overall, while the pressure on power supply in Sichuan remains, this year’s situation is expected to be less severe than last year. The government’s preparations, lower coal prices, increased cross-regional cooperation, and the growth of thermal power generation have all contributed to easing the strain on power supply.