Source: Southwest Futures Author: Southwest Futures
The text of the research report
PTA：On the previous trading day, the PTA2301 contract rose by 0.62%. The spot price in the East China market was 5,632 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 8.77%.
In terms of supply, Yizheng 350,000 tons were overhauled, Yisheng Dahua 375 dropped to 50%, Zhongtai 1.2 million tons recovered to 80%, and the load of individual devices dropped to 71.2% on Thursday.
In terms of demand, polyester load is still in range fluctuations, around 83.2%, down 0.9% month-on-month. According to CCF reports, large filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have been reducing the load one after another. Some factories in Ningbo have started or will soon reduce the load. One set of installations is scheduled to stop tomorrow; the epidemic has affected a set of installations in the northeast, and the power factor has reduced the load of a factory in Jiangsu. .
The short fiber load is generally stable, with a slight increase in some parts; in terms of bottle flakes, the first factory in Yangzhou has started routine maintenance, but the first factory in Haining is undergoing rotational maintenance, and the early production reduction device has temporarily recovered; the overall production and sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak, with a deviation of 50%. Down.
On the cost side, due to the poor benefit of aromatic hydrocarbons and the benefit of diesel oil is better than that of aromatic hydrocarbons, the PX load of a plant in East China of 9 million tons dropped to around 75-80%, the PX operating rate was 67.5%, a month-on-month decrease of 8.9%, and the PTA internal disk processing price difference was 244.45 yuan / ton, the processing difference continued to fall.
To sum up, the recent rebound of PTA disk is mainly due to the fact that after the previous PTA price oversold, upstream profits were transferred to downstream polyester factories, which eased the willingness of polyester factories to reduce negative costs.
In addition, due to the low processing fee of PTA, the PTA factory and the raw material side PX will have a negative expectation. The later trend of PTA price will follow the fluctuation of the raw material side, and the short-term low fluctuation is mainly. The turning point focuses on the production progress of the upstream device or the load change of the polyester factory.
In terms of strategy:Focus on short-term long-term opportunities.
Short fiber:On the previous trading day, the main contract of staple fiber 2212 rose slightly, or 1.11%. The mainstream spot price in the East China market was 7722 yuan / ton, and the basis rate was 10.96%.
In terms of supply, the operating rate of staple fiber was 76.22%, an increase of 1.57% compared with the previous period. The equipment that reduced production in the early stage of staple fiber is still recovering to a certain extent, and there is no clear adjustment plan for the operation of other staple fiber equipment.
In terms of demand, the polyester plant is basically running stably, with no load changes for the time being. The polyester load is around 83.2%. From November 1, 2022, the polyester production capacity base will be raised to 70.99 million tons. The transaction volume of China Textile City was 8.37 million meters, an increase of 1.58 million meters from the previous month, and an increase of 300,000 meters over the same period last year. The transaction center rebounded slightly; the production and sales of direct-spun polyester staples were average, with an average of 45%.
The comprehensive start-up of texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang dropped to 63%, the comprehensive start-up of looms dropped to 56%, and the comprehensive start-up of printing and dyeing dropped to 68%.
On the whole, the supply of staple fibers is expected to increase, the ethylene glycol and PTA at the raw material end fluctuate weakly, the seasonal destocking efforts at the weaving end are weak, the inventory of grey fabrics is higher than the same period in previous years, the spinning mills have declined, and the rigid demand for staple fibers is maintained. low.
The downstream is cautious to buy, but the cost side may be supported, and the spot basis is weakened. It is expected that the short fiber futures price will mainly follow the cost-end range consolidation. It is recommended to focus on long-term opportunities in operation. The risk points are mainly the cost-end trend and device dynamics.
In terms of strategy:Short-term attention to rallies opportunities.
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