European stock exchanges in sharp decline following the announcement that the ECB will leave the cost of money around zero, but from March 2022 will put a stop to the anti-pandemic program, the so-called Pepp. Sales on the auto sector and on technology. Amsterdam (AEX) is the worst and even Piazza Affari (FTSE MIB) pays the sales in various sectors with Diasorin, Finecobank and StMicrolectronics most penalized.
Central banks in retreat on monetary stimulus
“From the week of the central banks, the will emerged on the part of the Institutes to reduce the extraordinary monetary stimuli pandemic to deal with the increasingly upward-oriented inflation risks” write the analysts of Mps Capital Services, then recalling the surprise that came from the Bank of England of an increase in rates of 15 basis points and the willingness to follow a “moderately restrictive” monetary policy. The maturity of the so-called four witches, ie the expiration of options and futures on indices and stocks.
At Piazza Affari waiting for Tim, good Poste on agreement with Cdp
In Piazza Affari, all eyes are on Telecom Italia, on the day of the company’s board of directors. Banca Pop Er is still down: the Interbank Fund for the protection of deposits reacted coldly to the offer for Banca Carige: the requests for intervention from Modena are higher than what is foreseen by the statutes of the Fund but an in-depth analysis on the proposal will be made. Attention also catalysed by Exor, after the holding company announced that it had signed an agreement for the sale of PartnerRe to Covea with the markets closed. Closing also for the merger between Nexi and Sia: the merger deed signed which gives birth to a group with almost 3 billion euros in revenues in the payments sector. The best of the Milanese list is Poste Italiane after the agreement until 2024 for the renewal of the alliance with Cassa Depositi e Prestiti on postal savings.
Ko Diasorin after the plan
Consistent sales on Diasorin after the industrial plan. The 2022-2025 industrial plan of Diasorin expects revenues to 2022 ex covid to grow by 24%, those overall to decrease by 2% (at constant exchange rates), with covid revenues to decrease to 150 million euros compared to about 370 million in 2021. In the period 2022-2025, ex-covid revenues should grow by 10% per year, those including Covid by 7% (covid turnover seen down to 50 million). The adjusted EBITDA margin next year will be 35%. By 2025, however, it will stand at 38%, in line with the trend recorded before the pandemic and the Luminex acquisition. The cumulative Free Cash Flow in the period 2022-2025 is expected to be approximately 1.1 billion.
BTp, government bonds recovering after sales for the ECB
The spread between BTp and Bund is slightly up in a day that reopens with European bonds recovering after the sales following the moves of the ECB. The yield differential between the ten-year benchmark BTp (IT0005436693) and the German bond with the same duration is indicated at 131 basis points, in line with the last closing. On the other hand, the yield of the benchmark ten-year BTp decreased, reaching 0.95%, from the 0.98% recorded at the end. The ECB has confirmed that the pandemic aid plan (that Pepp which in fact allowed it by way of exception in recent months to buy more BTp than Bund, arguing the principle of the “capital key”) will not be renewed after the March deadline. From April back to the “old” rules of quantitative easing, or the purchase of government bonds in proportion to the country’s participation in the capital of the ECB. Consequently, the plan will mathematically favor purchases of German bonds compared to those of other Eurozone countries (including Italy) which have a lower share (capital key) than the German one.