Strong Supply and Demand Weak Basis Convergence Iron Ore Focuses on Short Short Opportunities | GF Futures_Sina Finance_Sina Network

Source: GF Futures Author: GF Futures

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[Spot]Qingdao Port PB powder is 682 yuan/ton, Newman powder is 700 yuan/ton.

[Basis]The current port PB powder warehouse receipt cost and Newman powder warehouse receipt cost are 731 yuan/ton and 734 yuan/ton respectively. The basis and basis rate of Newman powder night disk is 47.9 yuan / ton and 6.52%.

[Demand]Demand has turned an inflection point, and the average daily hot metal production peaked and fell -17,000 tons to 2.364 million tons per day. According to the Steel Federation, a total of 55 of the 126 sample blast furnaces in Tangshan have been overhauled, affecting about 836,500 tons of output per week, and the output is expected to peak and decline. The crude steel output in September was 86.95 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 17.6%; the cumulative value of crude steel output in September was 780.83 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%. The pig iron output in September was 73.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.0%; the cumulative pig iron output in September was 656.1 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%.

[Supply]The quarterly shipments of the four major mines increased month-on-month, superimposed on the stable operation of overseas non-mainstream mines, and the loose supply pattern has not changed. In terms of weekly data, arrivals and shipments this week decreased month-on-month, but the average was still at an upper-middle level. As of November 4, the arrivals to Hong Kong decreased by 2.918 million tons to 22.749 million tons, and the average value decreased by 947,000 tons to 23.306 million tons. tons to 25.69 million tons. Octoberiron oreThe import volume of stone decreased by 4.735 million tons from the previous month to 94.975 million tons, and increased by 3.365 million tons year-on-year; the cumulative import volume in October fell by 16.565 million tons to 918 million tons.

[Inventory]In this period, the port dredging volume decreased by 203,000 tons to 2.876 million tons; the port inventory increased by 909,000 tons to 132.843 million tons.

[Viewpoint]Supply is strong and demand is weak, basis is converging, and attention is paid to short-term opportunities. Fundamentally, this week’s arrivals and shipments decreased month-on-month, but the average was still at an upper-middle level. The overseas mines are operating stably, with the quarterly output of the four major mines increasing month-on-month, superimposed on the stable operation of overseas non-mainstream mines, and there is a loose supply expectation. The demand showed a downward trend, and the average daily hot metal production and port dredging volume decreased month-on-month. According to the steel federation, Hengshui City, Hebei Province is scheduled to start the level II emergency response to heavy pollution weather at 12:00 on November 7th. With the arrival of the winter production limit, the production of molten iron is expected to further decline, and the restraint effect of steel consumption on demand in the off-season will gradually be realized. . In October, the demand for steel was repaired month-on-month, which was in line with the seasonal law; however, the degree of release was less than expected, and the negative feedback reappeared. The profitability of the industry is not good. Most steel mills maintain low inventory of raw materials, and the superimposed terminal demand is lower than expected. It is expected that the replenishment of steel mills at the end of the year will have a limited boost to demand. At present, the cost of warehouse receipts is maintained at around 700 yuan/ton. As of the close of the night market on the 8th, the futures discount is 26.1 yuan/ton, which is a small discount and is a favorable short position.

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