Source: GF Futures Author: GF Futures
The text of the research report
[Spot]According to Mysteel, the price of Wuxi Hongwang 304 cold rolling was 16,850 yuan/ton (burr) on November 14, compared with -150 yuan/ton; basis difference was 505 yuan/ton, and the chain was +390 yuan/ton.
[Supply]According to Mysteel’s research, the output of 300 series crude steel of 40 domestic stainless steel plants in October was 1.6512 million tons, an increase of 17.22% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 25.63%; the production in November was 1.6636 million tons, which is expected to increase by 0.8% month-on-month and 13.6% year-on-year. %. In October, Indonesia’s stainless steel crude steel output was 417,000 tons (300 series), an increase of 11.2% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.71%; the output in November is expected to be 420,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%.
[Demand]The peak season for traditional demand has passed, and demand has turned weak. Under the channel of interest rate hike, overseas demand is weak, and except for orders from Southeast Asia, export orders from other regions have shrunk.
[Inventory]According to Mysteel, the total inventory of 300 series in the national mainstream stainless steel market on November 10 was 385,700 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons or 0.34% from the previous issue.
[Logic]In October, the output of 300 series crude steel of 40 domestic stainless steel plants was 1.6512 million tons, an increase of 17.22% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 25.63%, and the supply pressure gradually emerged. Demand has not improved significantly, and downstream purchases are made to order. The inventory of the 300 series continued to rise slightly, and the factory inventory increased. On the raw material side, the prices of ferronickel, ferrochromium and scrap stainless steel have all loosened, and the cost has weakened, but recently, the price of ferronickel has begun to rise due to cost support. On the whole, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, the cost is still supported, and the range fluctuates.
[Operation suggestion]Take profit on dips with empty orders.
【Short-term view】Neutral.
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