Source: Cinda Futures Author: Cinda Futures
Research report text
Related inquiries
1. Investors continue to weigh the outlook for energy demand and continue to pay attention to the European Union’s negotiations on the upper limit of crude oil prices in a certain European country. Crude oil futures fell for three consecutive days. Brent in January fell 1.71 to 83.63 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 2.00%.
2. The People’s Bank of China lowered the deposit reserve ratio by 0.25 percentage points, releasing a total of about 500 billion yuan of long-term funds.
3. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to October, industrial enterprises above designated size realized operating income of 111.78 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%; realized a total profit of 6,976.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.0%.
strategic advice
【PVC】
Disk performance: the 5-day moving average and the 20-day moving average turned upward, the 60-day moving average turned downward, and the price rebounded rapidly. Strong expectations underpin prices, which have strengthened in recent months.
Spot transaction: The domestic PVC market price continues to rise, the market atmosphere has improved, the futures fluctuate and rise, and the market point price has no advantage. It means that the transaction is acceptable, and most of them indicate that the enthusiasm of downstream chasing up is not high, and the transaction is not good. The mainstream price of Type 5 in East China is 6050-6120 yuan/ton.
Core logic: Optimism is fermenting, futures and spot prices are rapidly strengthening, and futures rebound to a higher height. Obviously, the dominant factor is expected to account for a larger proportion. As prices rise, new variables appear in supply and demand, mainly weak and stable demand, supply gradually recovers, and the import window gradually expands, supply and demand tend to weaken, and it is expected that the top will face greater pressure.
Suggested operation: wait and see, waiting for prompts.
1. Production profit
2. Inventory
3. Basis spread
【Polyolefin】
Disk performance: the 5-day moving average turns upward, the 20-day moving average slopes upward, the 60-day moving average moves flat, and the price shows an upward rebound trend. It is about to enter the peak period of shifting positions, and the delivery logic dominates.
Spot transactions: The trading atmosphere in the spot market was boosted, some petrochemicals raised their ex-factory prices, and some of the offers rose slightly. The mainstream price of LLDPE is 8100-8650 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of drawing in East China is 7750-7870 yuan/ton.
Core logic: The demand side weakens seasonally, the supply maintains a neutral position, the supply and demand flow is temporarily balanced, and the inventory continues to be mainly destocked. The price trends of raw materials and polyolefins have diverged in the near future, and profits will recover in the short term. The reality has not yet followed up the strong expectations, and the upside space is limited.
Suggested operation: wait and see, waiting for prompts.
1. Production profit
2. Inventory
3. Basis spread
Sina Statement: This news is reproduced from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, which does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in the Sina Finance APP