Source: Huarong Rongda Futures Author: Huarong Rongda Futures
Research report text
【Spot overview】
February 22,cottonThe spot index CCI3128B is quoted at 15,481 yuan/ton (-11), the price difference between futures and current prices is -1036 (05 contract closing price-spot price), the price of polyester staple fiber is 7,180 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of viscose staple fiber is 13,100 yuan/ton Ton (+0) CYIndexC32S quotation is 23450 yuan/ton (+25), FCYIndexC32S quotation is 25158 yuan/ton (-16);Zheng MianThe warehouse receipt is 11975 (+133), and the effective forecast is 2640 (+76). The price of EMOTM in the United States is 97 cents/lb (+0.5); the price of M in Brazil is 96.5 cents/lb (+0.4). According to statistics, as of February 22, 2023, the cumulative total processing of lint in Xinjiang was 5.6319 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.02%.
【Market analysis】
According to expectations, the global supply and demand in 2023/24 is expected to show a slight increase in total output and a recovery in consumption, which will lead to a decline in inventory at the end of the period. The slight increase in production is mainly reflected in the expected increase in the total output of the United States and Pakistan. Global cotton consumption is expected to be slightly higher than production expectations, and ending stocks are expected to decline. For the United States, the expected increase in US cotton production and exports in 2023/24 and the decline in ending stocks.
In terms of production, although the cotton planting area in the United States will decrease in the new year, the market expects that the subsequent abandonment rate will also decrease due to the impact of rainfall. The main 05 contract of ICE cotton futures overnight closed at 82.26 cents/lb on the positive line, and the futures price rose by 0.32 cents/lb compared with the previous trading day. From a technical point of view, the green column of MACD is shrinking, DIFF and DEA are fitted with a dead fork, and the KDJ indicator is fitted with a golden fork. The technical indicators are in a weak position.
Yesterday’s forecast for China’s 2023/24 supply and demand is as follows. It is predicted that China’s output is expected to decline to 5.94 million tons in the context of a decline in cotton planting area. In terms of consumption, based on the IMF’s expectation that China’s economic growth will continue to recover in 2023 and 2024, it is expected that China’s consumption will continue to recover and return to the annual consumption level of more than 8 million tons. This report predicts that the overall situation will be positive.
【technical analysis】
Yesterday Zhengmian main force 05 contract cross star closed at 14445 yuan / ton, the futures price fell 20 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 271 lots to 704,000 lots. Judging from the technical aspects of Zhou’s Chaoying, the ck model, the F2 indicator and the capital flow indicator are empty, and the technical indicators have weakened.
【Operation strategy】
In the short and medium term, the cotton price may be mainly fluctuated in a wide range, and it is advisable for cotton enterprises that have not participated in value preservation to actively maintain value.
【market Overview】
【Spread structure and arbitrage analysis】
On February 23, the price difference between the Zhengmian 2305 contract and the CCI3128B index futures was -1036 yuan/ton, a drop of 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
On February 23, the contract price difference of Zhengmian 2305-2309 was -165 yuan/ton, which remained unchanged from the previous trading day.
On February 23, the price difference between CCI index and FCIndex RMB index was -605 yuan/ton, which was 87 yuan/ton lower than the previous trading day; the ZCE2305-ICE2303 contract price difference was 2023 yuan/ton, and the price difference was 119 yuan lower than the previous trading day /Ton.
【Warehouse receipt and effective forecast】
As of February 23, Zhengmian’s warehouse receipts were 11,975 (515,000 tons), an increase of 133 (24,000 tons), and the effective forecast volume was 2,640 (114,000 tons), with a total of 628,000 tons of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts.
【technical analysis】
Yesterday Zhengmian main force 05 contract cross star closed at 14445 yuan / ton, the futures price fell 20 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, and the position decreased by 271 lots to 704,000 lots. Judging from the technical aspects of Zhou’s Chaoying, the ck model, the F2 indicator and the capital flow indicator are empty, and the technical indicators have weakened.
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