Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 30th Question: The foundation of the recovery still needs to be consolidated, and the general trend of improvement has not changed——interpretation of the PMI data in April
Xinhua News Agency reporters Wei Yukun and Qu Lingyan
The Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released data on April 30. In April, China’s manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), non-manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.2% , 56.4% and 54.4%, although lower than last month’s 2.7, 1.8 and 2.6 percentage points, but the overall output continued to expand, and the production and operation activities of enterprises continued to recover and develop.
“In April, due to factors such as insufficient market demand and the rapid recovery of the manufacturing industry in the first quarter to form a high base, the manufacturing PMI fell below the critical point, and the level of prosperity fell month-on-month.” said Zhao Qinghe, senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics. .
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China held on April 28 pointed out that “economic development is showing a positive trend”, but at the same time emphasized that “the current improvement in my country’s economic operation is mainly restorative” and “to promote high-quality development still needs to overcome many difficulties and challenges” .
According to expert analysis, although the manufacturing PMI dropped in April, judging from the changes in the comprehensive sub-indexes, the positive changes in economic operation are obvious, and the general trend of continuous recovery has not changed.
——Manufacturing production continued to expand overall.
In April, the production index and new order index were 50.2% and 48.8% respectively, down 4.4 and 4.8 percentage points from the previous month, but the production index was still above the critical point.
The equipment manufacturing industry continued to expand. In April, the PMIs of equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, high-tech manufacturing and high energy-consuming industries were 50.1%, 49.8%, 49.3% and 47.9% respectively, down from 2.9, 2.1, 1.9 and 3.2 percentage points in the previous month. Among them, the equipment manufacturing PMI is still higher than the critical point, and its production index and new order index are both higher than 51%.
——The cost of production factors fell.
Wen Tao, an expert from the China Logistics Information Center, said that in April, the drop in international bulk commodity prices led to a decline in the price of raw materials in my country’s manufacturing industry. The purchase price index of major raw materials was 46.4%, a decrease of 4.5 percentage points from the previous month, marking the 7th consecutive month. After running above 50%, it fell into the contraction range.
The enterprise survey shows that in April, the proportion of enterprises reflecting high raw material costs was 43%, a decrease of 4.2 percentage points from the previous month, which was the lowest point since 2021; the proportion of enterprises reflecting high logistics costs and labor costs were 27.5% and 30%, down 1.9 and 1.1 percentage points from the previous month.
——The financial situation of enterprises is getting better, and the human resource guarantee and logistics efficiency are improved.
According to the survey of enterprises, the proportion of enterprises reflecting difficulties in financing continued to decline, falling to 4.8% in April, the lowest value in recent years. The proportion of enterprises reflecting the shortage of funds decreased slightly month-on-month for three consecutive months.
“The supplier delivery time index has remained above 50% for three consecutive months. According to the survey, the proportion of companies reporting labor shortages in April fell to the lowest value in recent years.” Wen Tao said that human resource protection and logistics efficiency have improved, which is the key to continuously relieving supply. Shock pressure tamps the foundation.
——Market expectations remain stable.
In April, the production and business activity expectation index was 54.7%, which continued to be at a relatively high level, and enterprises had stable confidence in the recent market development. Among them, the expected index of production and operation activities of equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry increased by 1.4 and 2.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month.
The non-manufacturing business activity index continued to be in a relatively high economic range. In April, although the non-manufacturing business activity index fell, it was the second highest point in the year, and the non-manufacturing industry maintained a relatively high level of prosperity.
The foundation for the recovery of the service industry continued to be consolidated. Zhao Qinghe said that in April, the business activity index of the service industry was 55.1%, 1.8 percentage points lower than the previous month, but 15.1 percentage points higher than the same period of the previous year, and it was in a relatively high boom range for three consecutive months. From the perspective of market demand and expectations, the new order index was 56.4%, remaining in a relatively high level of prosperity; the business activity expectation index was 62.3%, staying within a high level of prosperity for four consecutive months.
The construction industry maintained rapid expansion. In April, the business activity index of the construction industry was 63.9%, staying in the high-level boom range for three consecutive months, and the production activities of the construction industry continued to expand rapidly. In terms of market expectations, the business activity expectation index was 64.1%, 0.4 percentage points higher than last month.
“In April, the comprehensive PMI output index was 54.4%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the previous month, but still at a relatively high operating level, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises continued to expand.” Zhao Qinghe said.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that on the whole, the drop in the PMI index in April is a short-term phenomenon in which the economy has shifted from restorative growth to a comprehensive recovery. At present, it is necessary to maintain concentration, continue to increase efforts, and do a good job in the implementation of various established policies.
“We must speed up the construction of a modern industrial system supported by the real economy”, “we must consolidate the foundation of self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, and cultivate and grow new kinetic energy” “continuously boost the confidence of business entities and help enterprises recover their vitality”… The meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee made economic work Series of important deployments.
“On the basis of in-depth investigation and research, we will solidly do a good job in economic operation monitoring, situation analysis and countermeasure research, and timely introduce practical and effective policy measures to consolidate the positive momentum of expansion and promote the continued overall improvement of economic operation.” News from the National Development and Reform Commission Spokesman Meng Wei said.
[Responsible editor: Lu Xiaofan]