Great aspiration, little behind it, that’s how one could increasingly characterize the actions of our country and its political class. One would like to be a pioneer, not only morally, great turning points are announced. Let’s take the state of the Bundeswehr and the “turning point” on the occasion of the Ukraine war with the confirmed goal of spending 2% of GDP on defense and also providing an additional “special fund” (or not additionally?) of €100 billion. Chancellor Scholz has just announced that in the next few years the expenditure from the “special fund” will be allocated to the regular defense budget. It seems that it is still unclear how Germany intends to meet the two percent target in the long term, if it wants to at all.
The Ifo Institute in Munich has calculated the consequences of this decision. According to the current economic forecast, Germany would have to spend around 80 to 85 billion euros on its defense in the coming year. That would mean that from 2024 onwards between 25 and 30 billion euros would have to flow out of the debt-financed “special fund”. Assuming continued constant economic growth, the 100 billion euros “special fund” would be used up in 2027.
The NZZ article by Marco Seliger (as part of a focus “The case of Germany – why the country is falling and how it can get back on its feet) paints a picture of our country’s defense capabilities that shocks me – although much of it was known.
The fact that Europe disarmed after the end of the East-West conflict was certainly right and proper. But the fact that the federal governments of all stripes were not able to keep the army defensible seems to me a political failure. Especially after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. At that point at the latest, Germany should have woken up in terms of defense policy. Vladimir Putin had made it clear how aggressively he intends to shape politics towards Western Europe. But Angela Merkel’s government failed to put the Bundeswehr back in position to defend itself. And this is how it looks today on the personnel page:
The Bundeswehr has almost 182,000 soldiers, including 214 generals and admirals, a good 39,000 officers, 95,000 non-commissioned officers and 46,000 soldiers with enlisted ranks. Never before has it had so few soldiers and at the same time so many organizational areas, staffs, commands and authorities as it does today. There’s a term for this: top-heaviness. It creates far too many interfaces and makes it difficult to assign and assume responsibility. This is a typical characteristic of a peace-accustomed army. It breeds bureaucrats and nurtures them.
Something that we encounter in many areas of our society – growing bureaucracies, rather declining decision-making and problem-solving skills. The Bundeswehr now spends half of its budget on personnel.
But an army with too many “chiefs” for too few “Indians” is overwhelmed by the new confrontation in Europe. The war in Ukraine shows what is important in a conflict on the eastern flank.
In an emergency, we wouldn’t really be able to react. Something that we also saw on a small scale in the disaster in the Ahr Valley.
In addition, there are the next weak points: the armament and the ammunition.
It’s not that the Bundeswehr doesn’t have modern weapons. Rather, the problem is that they are often not operational because two things are missing: spare parts and ammunition. Commanders say give us enough before you buy new, expensive weapons.
The Ministry of Defense tries to keep secret how big or small the ammunition stands really are with reference to national security – which is also understandable from a defense policy point of view. But when that leads to inaction, it becomes dangerous. The article enumerates a number of leaked and scary issues. An example is that warships like the Corvette 130 can only set sail with half the load of ammunition. Another recently made the “mirror” public.
Accordingly, the Bundeswehr only has 20,000 artillery shells. To put this into perspective, at the EU defense ministers’ meeting in Stockholm in March, Estonia presented a paper stating that Russia was using between 20,000 and 60,000 artillery shells a day.
A corresponding procurement of ammunition would be a fairly large chunk economically/financially. Procuring ammunition for 30 days of high-intensity combat, as NATO requires, would cost around 30 to 40 billion euros.
This is how the Berlin Ministry of Defense calculated it a few years ago, but did not draw the necessary conclusions.
Disturbingly, in NATO it is also the United States similar:
The Ukraine war showed how many rockets and shells are consumed in a modern war. To the surprise and dismay of the US, we are completely unable to keep up with the required shell production. We’re ramping up production, but only on a modest scale, and even that will take years.
Obviously we (like the West as a whole) live above our means economically in all areas. Socio-political, defense policy, infrastructure and climate protection – interest groups from the people are understandably demanding more money and resources everywhere. However, more and more debt is not a sustainable solution, and our options are also demographically limited. In this context, the question:
Where is the money supposed to come from to permanently finance 80 to 85 billion euros or, depending on the economic situation, even more for defense? The answer is obvious: either spending elsewhere would have to be cut, taxes increased, or further debts – for example for a second “special fund” – would have to be taken on.
A government, but also the media, would have to formulate this question and the alternatives clearly and precisely for the citizens in a democratic process. Also to be able to understand what the Germans actually value their security in comparison to other political areas. But instead, this cabinet muddles through. You buy yourself time with the debt-financed «special fund», but you postpone the actual problem – along with various others – into the future. No clear text anywhere. Is it any wonder that large parts of the population think they are living in a permanent crisis and then vote for the AfD?