According to the Financial Association (Beijing, reporter Zhang Xiaochong), the central bank announced the third quarter monetary policy implementation report on Friday, proposing that a prudent monetary policy should be flexible, precise, reasonable and appropriate, with me as the mainstay, steady words, and a good grasp of the intensity and pace of the policy. , To properly handle the relationship between economic development and risk prevention, do a good job of cross-cycle adjustment, maintain the overall stability of the economy, and enhance the resilience of economic development.
The keynote of the policy highlights “self-centeredness” and insists on “stability and stability”
Market participants pointed out that in the third quarter monetary policy implementation report, the “self-centeredness” was more prominent, and a column specifically elaborated on the monetary policy adjustments of developed economies and the “self-centeredness” response.
The column pointed out that this round of easing of monetary policies in developed economies is faster and more intense than the previous round. After the adjustment, it will promote the rise of the US dollar index and the rise of U.S. bond yields, which may have an impact on emerging economies. This round of easing of monetary policies by developed economies has a faster pace and greater intensity than the previous round. After adjustment, it will promote the rise of the U.S. dollar index and the rise of U.S. bond yields, which may have an impact on emerging economies. A good cross-cycle design of my country’s monetary policy can more effectively deal with the external shocks brought about by the adjustment of monetary policy in developed economies.
The central bank said that in the next step, we must continue to implement comprehensive policies and actively and prudently respond to the monetary policy adjustments of developed economies. A prudent monetary policy takes the lead, with self-centeredness, strengthening autonomy, and grasping the intensity and pace of the policy in accordance with the domestic economic situation and price trends. Deepen the market-oriented reform of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen the flexibility of the RMB exchange rate, strengthen anticipation management, improve the macro-prudential management of cross-border financing, guide market entities to adhere to the concept of “risk neutrality”, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. Continuously deepen the two-way opening up of finance and enhance the attractiveness of domestic RMB assets.
Maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity and enhance the stability of the growth of total credit
The report pointed out that improving the money supply control mechanism, maintaining reasonable and abundant liquidity, enhancing the stability of total credit growth, keeping the money supply and the growth rate of social financing basically matching the nominal economic growth rate, and keeping the macro leverage ratio basically stable. Closely track and judge price trends, stabilize social expectations, and maintain overall price stability.
Soochow Securities’ macro team stated to the Financial Association that the report pays more attention to stabilizing market expectations and strives to complete the main objectives and tasks of this year’s economic development. It does not mention the currency gate, but to enhance the stability of credit growth. On the basis of this, more emphasis is placed on stable credit and stable growth, and the liquidity environment will also serve this goal.
In the main policy thinking of the next stage, the report proposes to comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools such as medium-term lending facilities, open market operations, re-lending and rediscounting, to further improve the forward-looking, flexibility and effectiveness of monetary policy operations, and to maintain liquidity Reasonable abundance, and guide market interest rates to fluctuate around the policy interest rate center.
Market participants predict that the central bank’s monetary policy tools in the next stage will still be the medium-term lending facility (MLF), re-lending and rediscounting and other structural tools. The liquidity environment will still be reasonably sufficient. However, in response to the end of this year and the beginning of next year, the domestic economy will face The downward pressure on the monetary policy toolbox still cannot completely rule out RRR cuts.
The direction of real estate regulation has not changed, and the prudential management system of real estate finance has been implemented.
The report pointed out that the current real estate market risks are generally controllable, and the overall situation of the healthy development of the real estate market will not change. Persist in not using real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy, persist in stabilizing land prices, house prices, and expectations, maintaining the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies, implementing a prudential management system for real estate finance, and increasing financial support for housing leasing , Cooperate with relevant departments and local governments to jointly maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers.
Data in the Monetary Policy Report showed that the weighted average interest rate of personal housing loans reached 5.54% in September, an increase of 0.12 percentage points from the previous month, marking an upward trend for three consecutive quarters.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, told the Caixing News Agency that this reflects the policy intention of the previous real estate regulation to continue to increase, and it is also the direct reason for the five-month continuous year-on-year decrease in residents’ mid- and long-term loans. In addition, in the report, the central bank did not pay much attention to the current real estate “cold wave”, showing that the regulators still have strong confidence in controlling risks in the real estate industry.
Soochow Securities’ macro team believes that the central bank’s main tone for real estate is still risk prevention and will mainly support credit and liquidity. However, stabilizing real estate requires the cooperation of other departments and local governments, such as the supervision of pre-sale funds. , It needs to cooperate with the mortgage relaxation to achieve a better effect of alleviating the real estate liquidity plight.
Loan interest rates are still at a low level, and banks are not willing to lend
The weighted average interest rate of loans in September was 5%. Among them, the weighted average interest rate of general loans was 5.30%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.01%. The weighted average interest rate of corporate loans was 4.59%, a decrease of 0.04 percentage points year-on-year, and was at a historically low level.
However, from January to September, bill financing increased steadily, with financial institutions discounting a total of 2634.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.1%. At the end of September, the balance of bill financing was 9.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.9% year-on-year, accounting for 4.8% of all loans, an increase of 0.1 percentage point year-on-year.
Market participants pointed out that data shows that in an environment where the overall downward pressure on the economy is increasing and loan interest rates are generally not high, banks are more willing to provide companies with less risky short-term bill financing due to risk prevention and control considerations. In terms of granting loans Also more cautious.
Wang Qing believes that the continued decline in credit growth in the early stage is not entirely due to insufficient corporate loan demand. In the next step, the supervisory level may provide targeted incentives for banks to lend.