The contradiction between supply and demand has increased, and the rebar may fluctuate in a range.

The text of the research report

Quotes Review

Recently, the profits of steel mills have been under pressure, and electric furnace steel mills have turned into a comprehensive loss.

On the whole, the current demand performance is still sluggish, the output is at a relatively high level, and the trend of inventory has turned to rising after the end of the 12 consecutive decline, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased.

However, the recent policy level has continued to release easing expectations, which has boosted market sentiment to a certain extent. Short-term demand for replenishment before the National Day, raw materials are stronger than finished materials.

1. Fundamental Tracking

(1) Supply side, Since the end of July, the resumption of production of steel mills is more obvious, and it has rebounded for 7 consecutive weeks. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.41%, an increase of 0.43% from last week and an increase of 3.26% from last year.

The utilization rate of blast furnace ironmaking capacity was 88.32%, an increase of 0.76% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 4.73%; the profit rate of steel mills was 52.81%, a month-on-month increase of 0.43% and a year-on-year decrease of 35.50%; A year-on-year increase of 134,100 tons.

Steel mills still have plans to resume production in September. At present, Tianjin has begun to receive a notice of environmental protection production restrictions. Tangshan will follow up with a high probability, and the increase in thread supply will be limited.

(2) On the demand sideNational Bureau of Statistics data show that from January to August, the national real estate development investment was 9,080.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4%; of which, residential investment was 6,887.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.9%.

From January to August, the housing construction area of ​​real estate development enterprises was 8,686.49 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 4.5%. Among them, the residential construction area was 6,136.04 million square meters, down 4.8%. The newly started housing area was 850.62 million square meters, down 37.2%.

Among them, the newly started residential area was 624.14 million square meters, down 38.1%. The completed housing area was 368.61 million square meters, down 21.1%. Among them, the completed residential area was 267.37 million square meters, down 20.8%.

Many departments have introduced measures to promote “guaranteing the handover of buildings” and “stabilizing people’s livelihood”. Macro expectations may pick up again. In the game between weak reality and expected restoration, we will pay attention to whether real estate sales can stabilize and rebound in the medium and long term.

Zhengzhou City requires “work hard for 30 days to ensure the full resumption of construction of the city’s suspended buildings”.

(3) Inventoryas of September 15,RebarThe total inventory of 7.2162 million tons rose by 180,000 tons from the previous month, ending the previous 12 consecutive decline and turning to an increase.

The social inventory was 4,962,700 tons, up 159,800 tons from last week, and the factory warehouse was 2,253,500 tons, up 20,200 tons from last week. Inventory destocking has slowed down. Recently, steel mills have continued to resume production, and supply has continued to rise, which has hindered destocking in peak seasons.

2. Conclusions and Operational Recommendations

The profit on the disk is low, and the steel is in the cost support stage, waiting for the demand to increase. If the demand is highly limited, be alert to the emergence of a new round of negative feedback.

The property market policies in many places have been loosened. Zhengzhou City has a special campaign to ensure the handover of buildings. The suspended real estate is ready to resume work in an all-round way.

The space for increasing production at the thread supply side is limited, and there are follow-up indicators of production reduction. The terminal demand has dropped significantly, and the contradiction between supply and demand has increased, and the thread range is mainly fluctuating. The demand for replenishment before the National Day, raw materials are stronger than finished materials.

risk point:Demand is lower than expected, and macro-positive policies are lacking.

Sina Statement: This news is reproduced from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, and does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.