The date chosen is not accidental: April 25, that is exactly four years after the announcement, surrounded by much skepticism, of the candidacy – which later proved to be successful – for USA 2020: Joe Biden no longer makes a secret of wanting to run for a second term and is preparing to officially take the field this week, almost certainly tomorrow. The US press agrees on this: an ‘election campaign-style’ video is ready to be released, triggering an aggressive ‘fundraising’ campaign, because without money you may go to Heaven, but not to the White House.
Naturally, unpredictable external events, in Ukraine o in Sudan or elsewhere, they can always get Biden to change the timing of the announcement, even at the last minute. But the decision to run as a candidate “is made,” a senior Democratic source tells CNN. The candidate president will put a WilmingtonDelaware, where he lives and where he spends most weekends, his campaign headquarters.
Born in Scranton in Pennsylvania, the president has lived in Delaware since the late 1960s: in 1972 he was elected senator of that state and was then confirmed for six terms, 36 years. As campaign manager, the names of Julie Chavez Rodriguez, director of a White House office and deputy manager in 2020 are mentioned; by Jenn Ridder, formerly on Biden’s team in 2020; and Sam Cornale, executive director of the Democratic Party National Committee.
A candidacy without enthusiasm or opponents
According to polls, Biden’s candidacy is not unanimous among Democrats, especially among young people and ‘liberals’: in part because the president has now turned 80 and will turn 82 two weeks after the 2024 presidential elections, on November 5 – and already when he was elected in 2020 he was the oldest president in US history; partly because his results have not so far been exciting, in the economy and in the fight against inflation and also in the defense of social, civil and gender rights, established by a highly conservative Supreme Court.
Ma the Democrats are ready to support it by a very large majority if he were to obtain, as is probable, the nomination, especially if his opponent were Donald Trump again, in a 2020 rematch that all progressives and moderates wish would be a ‘regain’.
Biden’s age has recently returned to a topic of discussion due to the health problems of 89-year-old Senator Diane Feinstein, a Democrat from California, the oldest of the US senators, who has been absent from courtroom work for months: a fugitive that underlines the risk of a “leadership geriatrica” and which hinders the agenda of the Administration, which is committed to raising the debt ceiling to avoid the first default in US history.
Among the knots that Biden will have to solve is that of his deputy: whether to confirm or not Kamala Harriswhose performance at the White House was lower than expected, due to some internal friction.
The democratic field is devoid of opponents and, once the president takes the field, he will remain so. In contention, there is Marianne Williamson, writer, gender rights activist, candidate for the nomination in 2020 – but few noticed -; and there could be Robert F. Kennedy, 69, strong name – he is the son of Robert Kennedy and nephew of John Kennedy -, but little more than a political caricature, environmental lawyer, ‘no vax’ activist, denier and conspiracy theorist.
The Republicans will aim to erode Biden’s image, with an investigation into his son Hunter, drug problems, a less than brilliant business history and a much talked about ‘pre-war’ connection with Ukraine (perhaps without reason).
The GOP hostage to Trump
The Republican camp is, for the moment, dominated by the cumbersome candidacy of Donald Trump, but it is becoming thicker with half figures, waiting for the governor of Florida Ron DeSantis decide whether or not to aim for the nomination. The former deputy of the tycoon president, Mike Pence, could also take the field, without much hope: in the meantime, he accentuates his critical position towards his former boss, against whom he intends to testify in the investigation relating to the revolt instigated by Trump on January 6, 2021 to induce Congress to overturn the outcome of the election.
Already in the field, there are Nikki Haley, 51 years old, already a friend of Trump, governor of South Carolina and US representative to the UN, Indian origins and great qualities, but a popularity to build; the businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, 37 years old, looking for some visibility; the former governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinson, 73, a ‘non-Trumpian’; and the conservative radio newscaster Larry Elder, who failed to become governor of California in 2021. Instead, the Senator from South Carolina Tim Scott58, the only black Republican senator, has set up a committee to explore the chances of his own candidacy and is beating Iowa, the state where the Republicans will open the primaries.
In polls among Republicans, Trump has a strong lead – 14 points – over his most dangerous potential rival, DeSantis. The formalization of Biden’s re-nomination will likely increase pressure on the governor of Florida and on the Republican party, where there is a widespread perception that the tycoon may win the nomination, but is then destined to lose the election. Biden has already beaten Trump in 2024 and the clash on issues such asabortion, gender rights and access to the vote of minorities could further help it.
Not to mention that, rather than campaigning, the ex-president tycoon is currently busy on the judicial front. Indicted in New York, he tries to exploit his vicissitudes by playing the role of political persecuted: in the United States, in recent weeks, a song that sings its deeds, featuring a chorus of inmates accused of the January 6, 2021 insurrection, has been at the top of a hit parade.
If Trump is also called to testify in theinquiry into the affairs of the Trump Organization, the family holding company, his loyalists in the House, where Republicans are in the majority, take it out on Alvin Bragg, the New York prosecutor who had the audacity to indict him for conspiracy, and summon his exes to the Capitol to testify collaborators. Bragg, however, does not remain passive: he accuses Jim Jordan, president of the Justice Commission, a Republican deputy, of intimidating him: “Congress – he points out – does not have the power to interfere in a criminal investigation”.
According to many observers, the worst for Trump will come from Georgia: in the fall of 2020, the then president tried to induce local authorities to overturn the election result in that state. It is widely believed that the New York trial and other inquiries will intersect the campaign. An example: in August, the first debate between Republican candidates for nomination could coincide with the next act of the New York debate.
Cover photo EPA/JIM LO SCALZO / POOL