Source: Southwest Futures Author: Southwest Futures
The text of the research report
naturalrubber：On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber finished higher and fell.
The CPI data released by the United States last week was lower than expected, the US dollar index fell, commodities generally rose, and natural rubber fell.
Although the U.S. dollar index has fallen, natural rubber does not have a continuous upward drive from the perspective of supply and demand. The global peak production period superimposed on terminal consumption is subject to the epidemic and the decline in real estate. The export of rubber products is expected to fall. It is recommended to go short on rallies in batches.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on November 7, China imported a total of 643,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in October 2022, an increase of 25.6% from 512,000 tons in the same period in 2021.
From January to October, China imported a total of 5.861 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), an increase of 7.1% from 5.475 million tons in the same period in 2021. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in September 2022, the output of rubber tire casings in China was 75,454, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. From January to September, the output of rubber tire casings fell by 4.1% to 639.317 million from the same period of the previous year.
The mainstream price of SCRWF in Shanghai for 21 years is 11750-12050 yuan / ton; the reference price of SVR3L in Shanghai is 11500-11550 yuan / ton; the reference price of domestic 10# rubber in the Yunnan market is 10350-10550 yuan / ton.
In terms of strategy:It is recommended to go short on rallies in batches.
Urea:On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea fell by more than 2%, and the spot price continued to rise. The market began to resist the high price, and the basis widened. The upstream inventory of this announcement continued a slight accumulation trend and was at a high level year-on-year.
The recent performance of urea disk is relatively strong, mainly due to the increase in upstream orders driven by short-term demand for short-term storage, and the logic of production reduction in the future brought about by the increase in natural gas prices in the southwest region, but the market still needs to be alert to the realization of production reductions and weak demand after coal prices have fallen. We should pay attention to the fluctuation risk of Nissan and raw coal prices, and suggest that companies sell hedges in batches on rallies after the basis continues to narrow.
In terms of strategy:It is recommended to hold empty orders.
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