The text of the research report
【Beneficial factors】
Yesterday, the national average price of live pigs was 23.92 yuan/kg, down 0.34 yuan/kg from the previous day. The resistance to prices at the northern breeding end became stronger, and the difficulty in reducing prices in slaughterhouses increased. , Northeast stable at 22.6-23.5 yuan / kg, Henan rose 0.1-0.2 yuan / kg to 24-24.5 yuan / kg.
Shandong rose 0.2 yuan/kg to 24-24.4 yuan/kg, Sichuan fell 0.6 yuan/kg to 24-24.6 yuan/kg, and Guangxi stabilized to 23.6-24 yuan/kg; after the rapid drop in pig prices, the enthusiasm of retail investors in northern China slowed down. Anti-price sentiment heats up.
This weekend, the whole country is about to experience a large-scale cooling. After the temperature drops, the consumption of salted sausages will start soon; the large discount on the futures market will limit the room for further decline; A single reduction of 177 shares.
【Bad factors】
The recent upgrade of epidemic prevention and control in many places has affected the rhythm of terminal consumption; the weight of live pigs has continued to increase; the price difference of standard fertilizer has narrowed, and the price difference of standard fertilizer in some areas has turned from positive to negative; the demand for secondary breeding has decreased significantly, and the centralized slaughtering of pigs in the later stage will increase the effective supply in the market .
【Variety view】
Pay attention to the support effect of downstream consumption on pig prices after the large-scale cooling over the weekend; the top 20 funds of futures main contracts have increased and decreased, and the disk continues to look for support downward. Whether it can stop falling and rebound still needs to wait for the pig price guidance after cooling, futures stickers Water limits the further downside of the disk.
【Operation suggestion】
The 2301 contract is mainly short-term wait-and-see, and the bottom supports 20800-21000, waiting for short-term opportunities after the rebound.
【Risk Factors】
New crown epidemic prevention and control, pig epidemic prevention and control, second breeding rhythm.
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