Source: Guosen Futures Author: Guosen Futures
Research report text
Precious metals: The number of people applying for unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week rebounded and gold and silver fluctuated strongly
On Thursday evening, COMEX gold futures rose 0.6 percent to $1,826 an ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 1.7 percent to $24.250 an ounce. In domestic night trading, the main contract of Shanghai Gold 2302 was reported at 410.08 yuan/gram, an increase of 0.33%; the main contract of Shanghai Silver 2302 was reported at 5368 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.30%.
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose to 225,000 last week. The U.S. November existing home sales index fell 4% month-on-month, which was weaker than expected. The U.S. dollar index fell slightly overnight, and gold and silver fluctuated strongly. The Fed’s December meeting raised interest rates by 50bp as scheduled. Economic forecasts show that the terminal interest rate will be further raised to 5.1% in 2023. Powell said that he has not considered cutting interest rates at present, and the Fed is more hawkish than expected. However, considering that as the pressure on economic growth gradually emerges, while inflation falls from high levels at the same time, and central banks of various countries actively increase their holdings of gold, the long-term upward trend of precious metals has gradually become clear. property support. Precious metals lack an upward drive in the short term, and may need to wait for more clear signs of recession or weaker employment signals.
Operational recommendations, mainly buy every callback.
Zinc and nickel: Zinc is under pressure, nickel fluctuates at a high level
On Thursday night, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc fell by 0.86% compared with the previous trading day. The peak period of energy consumption in Europe will come in January, and the room for natural gas prices to continue to decline is limited. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee is high, and the production efficiency of refineries has been reduced due to the epidemic problem; in terms of inventory, LME inventory continues to decline, and domestic social inventory has accumulated during the week. On the demand side, the spot supply is tight, and the downstream procurement is mainly based on rigid demand. The peak period of the epidemic in some cities has passed, consumption has recovered strongly, and the market has strong expectations for the recovery of the domestic economy. After a short-term rapid rebound,Zinc priceThere is pressure to continue upward, and zinc should pay attention to stop profit.
thursday nightShanghai NickelThe main contract fell 0.18% from the previous trading day. In terms of ferronickel and supply, due to the large number of early transactions in the market, orders for Indonesian iron have basically been signed. Except for some traders who are optimistic about the new year and stock up a certain amount of ferronickel, the spot goods in the rest of the market are actually relatively small. In the near future, iron factories all have a certain attitude of holding up prices, one is due to the soaring price of nickel, and the other is due to the recovery of stainless steel plates. On the demand side, the procurement node is approaching recently, and there are inquiries from large steel mills. Due to the tight supply of goods in the market, certain concessions may be made, and the short-term ferronickel price fluctuates strongly. On the alloy side, it has entered the off-season of the alloy industry, and it is expected that the consumption of pure nickel in the pure nickel sector will decline in December. In terms of nickel sulfate, the recent production profit loss, MHP discount coefficient down. Russian nickel production cut news, import losses and delivery inventory continued to fall to support the market. Short-term macro sentiment boosted, nickel fluctuated at a high level.
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