Home Business The Fed’s decision to shrink its debt will complicate the long-short gold price dilemma

The Fed’s decision to shrink its debt will complicate the long-short gold price dilemma

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On the evening of Friday (October 8), the non-agricultural employment data released by the United States was upset and fell short of expectations.MidlandThe next debt reduction action of the Reserve Bank has once again raised doubts. Spot gold once soared 20 US dollars to 1,781.29 US dollars, the highest level since September 22. But then dived under the pressure of huge selling orders, and the price of gold went out of a V-shaped reversal trend, and the overnight gains were swallowed up, and finally closed at 1756.99 US dollars per ounce.

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At 20:30 on Friday evening, the US September seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment report was released. The increase in non-agricultural employment in that month was significantly lower than expected, the smallest increase since January this year; and the unemployment rate was also better than expected, a record since March 2020. New low.

Specific data show that the number of newly-increased jobs in the month was only 194,000, which was far below the expected 500,000; the unemployment rate announced at the same time was 4.8% in September, which was far below the expected 5.1%;

In addition, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in August was revised up from 235,000 to 366,000; the number of new non-agricultural jobs in July was revised up from 1.053 million to 1.091 million.

Non-agricultural data is upset, letMidlandThe next decision of the Reserve Bank to reduce the scale of bond purchases has been complicated.Deteriorating employment situation may causeMidlandThe Reserve has stalled, and the Fed is currently preparing to slow down its $120 billion monthly bond purchase program.

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Last month, the Federal Reserve’sinterest rateThe resolution has already released a clear hawkish signal, that is, to start reducing debt purchases in November, and even start the process of raising interest rates.

Previously, some agency analysis indicated that if the increase in non-agricultural employment in September is less than 240,000, the improvement in the US job market before November may not reach the standard of “substantial progress.”

A lotAnalystSaid that although the employment data was worse than expected, the September employment report may still be enough to trigger the Fed to start reducing the scale of debt purchases. But others said that a significant drop in non-agricultural employment data may cause the central bank to suspend interest rate hikes.

  Goldman SachsIt was pointed out that the lower than expected employment in September was affected by the delta strain. Taking into account the better-than-expected unemployment rate and salary data, we believe that this report will not affect the Fed’s announcement of a reduction in debt purchase plans. The plan was announced at the November meeting.

Judging from the rise and fall of gold prices on Friday night, investors who still agree that the Fed will take action in November have the upper hand.

Spot gold once again fell into a range shock. After the highest reached above 1781, it retreated. It also made the bears falsely alarmed. The short-term shocks of long and short are also obvious. The advent of non-agricultural raised the upside break zone, but it did not break. The trend of interval fluctuations. The short- and medium-term moving averages formed an intricate cross pattern, which also made the market more afraid of it. The bardo, whose daily line closed on the lower lead, was the opposite of the previous day, which also showed the short-term long-term anxious pattern. In line with the market’s desire to struggle, gold’s long and short positions are currently in a certain decision. The upper pressure area is above 1780, and the lower support has not broken through the 1745 area, forming a long-short dilemma;

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It should be noted that the price of gold has been hindered in the form of rising, especially the sharp rise and breakthrough stimulated by non-agricultural data, and short-term corrections are needed. At present, the daily chart has risen and fallen, an inverted hammer is positive, and the top has basically been confirmed. At the four-hour level, the Yinxian of Shangying has just formed, and the rise of spot gold is blocked, and the uptrend is blocked; The bullish trend in the gold price is gone. Next Monday, the resistance above the gold price will first focus on the area around 1766-1770, and the support below it will focus on the area around 1745-1750.

  Tips:Non-agricultural people are “stunned”, and the gold market is surprised to see a V-reversal! Please pay attention to the Jintou.com APP for specific operations. The market is changing rapidly and investment needs to be cautious. The operation strategy is for reference only.

(Source: Jintou.com)


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