(Original title: Crazy counterattack! The Hong Kong stocks reversal signal is clear? The Hang Seng Index rarely broke the net, only three times in history, this time is very different? Fund manager: the bottom has reached)
After the index broke the net and Hong Kong stock funds ranked first and second, the Hong Kong stock index ushered in a landmark rebound.
On August 24, the Hang Seng Technology Index surged 7.06%, the second largest one-day gain in history. This was only one trading day after the Hang Seng Index’s price-to-book ratio fell to 0.98 times and fell below net assets. Considering that the Hong Kong stock market has transformed into a new economic market dominated by high-tech rather than bank real estate, this phenomenon of falling below net assets has particularly highlighted the attractiveness of the mistaken killing.
Dacheng Fund Ran Linghao believes that the early stagflation of Hong Kong stocks provides sufficient space for future supplementary gains, and there will also be multiple momentum to drive Hong Kong stocks to rise in the future. In the long run, the trend of the Hong Kong stock market is entirely determined by the profitability of listed companies; in the next two years, the earnings of Hong Kong listed companies are expected to rise rapidly, which strongly supports the trend of Hong Kong stocks.
After a long drought, Hong Kong stocks finally broke out
After continuous adjustments, fund managers finally waited for an important rebound in Hong Kong stocks.
The Hang Seng Index surged 2.46% on August 24, and the Hang Seng State-owned Enterprise Index closed up 3.21%; the Hang Seng Technology Index surged 7.06%, the second largest one-day gain in history. In terms of fund holdings, Meituan rose 13.51%, Bilibili rose 10.22%, and Tencent Holdings rose 8.81%.
The surge of Hong Kong stocks on August 24 was more like a super counterattack by bargain-hunting funds. Just before this rebound, the Hang Seng Index of Hong Kong stocks fell below the price-to-book ratio. After a week of continuous decline last week, the P/B ratio of the Hang Seng Index fell to 0.98 times on August 20, falling below the net assets. This data is located at the 1% quantile level since 2002, which means that the Hang Seng Index The valuation of the price-to-book ratio is lower than 99% of the time since 2002.
It is worth mentioning that the Hang Seng Index also had three major “breaking” ranges before, which occurred during the Asian financial crisis in 1998, the A-share circuit breaker in early 2016, and the continued decline of Hong Kong stocks in 2020. However, this year’s net break is significantly different from the past three times. During the first three “break nets”, the Hang Seng Index was still dominated by financial sectors with low valuations and low price-to-book ratios. However, in recent years, following the Hong Kong stock market and index policies With continuous optimization, the proportion of Hong Kong stocks in the new economic sector will continue to increase.
Broker China reporters learned that the average daily turnover of the Hong Kong stock market from new economy companies increased from 4% in 2018 to 20% at the end of the first quarter of 2021. In the first quarter of this year, new economy companies The IPO funds raised in Hong Kong have reached a new climax. This proportion has risen to 95%. Hong Kong stocks are becoming more and more neo-economy and are shaping the new economic form of Hong Kong stocks.
In the context of the relatively high proportion of technology stocks in the Hong Kong stock market, the current “breaking net” signal may be more obvious than the previous three “breaking nets”. That is to say, Hong Kong stocks, such as Hong Kong stocks, may be significantly undervalued in a new economic market dominated by technology stocks. .
“The valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index is already very low, but its growth is still at a high level. Its PEG is lower than the ChiNext Index and the Nasdaq 100 Index.” Dacheng Fund Ran Linghao said that according to the current situation, Hang Seng The P/E ratio of the technology index in 2021 is 33 times, the P/E ratio in 2022 is 25 times, and the P/E ratio in 2023 is 20 times. The corresponding compound annualized profit growth rate will reach more than 30%. The PEG valuation is low, especially the main weight of the Hang Seng Technology Index. Stocks, such as the valuation level of some Internet giants, have been in the historically low range, which means that bad news has already been reflected in the stock price, and there is little room for future downside.
Hong Kong stock funds are difficult, and the fund manager judges that the bottom has reached
At the same time, when the Hang Seng Index fell below the net assets, the income of the Hong Kong stocks’ funds during the year was among the lowest. Data show that as of August 24, China Universal Hong Kong Hybrid Fund has lost 24.79% this year, ranking first among active equity funds in the year. The second largest loss during the year is E Fund Asia Select Fund, which lost 24.11% during the year. The fund’s main positions are also concentrated in the Hong Kong stock market.
However, whether it is China Universal Hong Kong Hybrid Fund or E Fund Asia Select Fund, the Hong Kong listed companies whose core positions are held are all high-quality new economic leaders. Therefore, the performance of related fund products of Shigekura Hong Kong stocks ranks in the bottom, which highlights that the adjustment of Hong Kong stocks seems to have entered a moment of panic and greed.
The Hang Seng Index’s fall below the price-to-book ratio is obviously a symbolic signal, but some bigwigs actually started buying bottoms as early as the beginning of the month.
On the evening of August 9, Li Ka-shing’s Hong Kong-listed company Changhe Company announced that it would repurchase 650,000 shares on August 9, 2021, at a cost of HK$37,508,900, with a maximum repurchase price of HK$58.05 and a minimum repurchase price of HK$57.45. On August 6, 900,000 shares were repurchased at a cost of 52.091 million Hong Kong dollars, and the price per share was also about 58 Hong Kong dollars. The cumulative number of shares repurchased by CKH Holdings in the past three months was 9,297,500 shares, accounting for 0.24% of the issued share capital.
It is worth noting that the repurchase of leading companies in Hong Kong stocks has further strengthened the confidence of bargain-hunting funds.
After August 19, Tencent Holdings continued to repurchase on the 20th, 23rd, and 24th. A total of 650,000 shares were repurchased for 4 consecutive trading days at a total investment of HK$290 million. Tencent Holdings announced that it repurchased 22,600 shares on the 24th at a cost of 10.205 million Hong Kong dollars. The repurchase price was between 450.6-451.6 Hong Kong dollars per share, which was the fourth consecutive trading day for the repurchase.
Guosen Securities also issued a research report stating that it maintains a “buy” rating for Tencent Holdings and assigns it to PE35-38x in 2022, corresponding to a target price of HK$700-750. The agency believes that online game business revenue was 43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Basically in line with consensus expectations. Among them, mobile game revenue (including social accounts) was 40.8 billion yuan, an increase of 13% year-on-year. The bank estimates that the turnover increased by about 3% year-on-year. Revenue from mobile games increased by 1% year-on-year to 11 billion yuan, exceeding consensus expectations by 1%. Overseas game revenue increased by 29% year-on-year to 10.8 billion yuan. After excluding the influence of currency exchange rates, the actual growth rate was 37%; accounting for 25% of online game revenue.
In the eyes of many institutions, the heavily discounted Hong Kong stocks have entered a range of gradual distribution. Everbright Securities believes that in the long run, due to the recent stock price adjustments of Internet companies, the investment value has become prominent. The intent of regulation is not to curb Internet companies from becoming bigger and stronger. In the future, policies will most likely be inclined to standardize the development of the industry rather than subvert the industry. The regulated Internet companies will continue to be the most potential and dynamic part of China’s economy in the future.
In addition, from the experience of the U.S. stock market, Internet companies have also faced multiple regulatory pressures, but the risk and probability of business splits are low. Most companies are still thriving after regulation and are rejuvenated. At present, the Internet giants in Hong Kong stocks are under the pressure of supervision, and there has been a rare low valuation level in history. This is a rare buying opportunity for long-term funds.
Ran Linghao, fund manager of Dacheng Hang Seng Technology ETF, believes that the performance of Hong Kong stocks in 2020 is obviously not as good as that of US stocks and A shares, but the stagflation of Hong Kong stocks in the early stage provides sufficient space for future supplementary gains. In the future, there will also be multiple momentum to drive Hong Kong stocks to rise. In the long run, the trend of the Hong Kong stock market is entirely determined by the profitability of listed companies; in the next two years, the earnings of Hong Kong listed companies are expected to rise rapidly, which strongly supports the trend of Hong Kong stocks.
Ran Linghao reiterated the view that the Hang Seng Technology Index has basically reached the bottom range, but believes that the rebound may not come so fast, because the market needs time to completely digest the policy impact and negative news, during which there may be a narrow fluctuation trend, but in the fourth quarter , Investors will gradually begin to re-evaluate the valuation of the Hang Seng Technology Index based on the performance in 2022. By then, they will find that the Hang Seng Technology Index still has good growth potential and the valuation is cheaper. This may promote the index to appear relatively low. Good increase.
Editor in charge: Tactical Constant
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