For stocks, look at the research report of Golden Unicorn analysts, authoritative, professional, timely and comprehensive, to help you tap potential thematic opportunities!
Original title: The military track is on fire again!The latest views of fund managers and brokers are here
In the context of continued white-hot market conditions in popular sectors such as new energy and chips, market uncertainty has increased, but the military sector, which has benefited from improved fundamentals, has continued to increase its attention.
There are many indications that for the military industry track with high prosperity and moderate valuation, more and more institutions are beginning to see more or more.
In the eyes of many fund managers, the long-term trend of the military industry has become clear. In the future, the investment logic of this sector will return from short-term games to industry prosperity and company fundamentals.
The military industry track is favored by many sources of funds
According to statistics,CSI China Aviation Military Industry Subject IndexSince May, the cumulative increase has exceeded 35%, of which 10.79% has risen in the past week alone, and the weekly increase has ranked first among all sectors. The tide has risen, and many national defense and military-industrial theme funds have increased their net value by more than 10% last week.
Obviously, as the market for popular sectors such as new energy and chips continues to heat up, differences have gradually increased and market uncertainty has increased. However, the attention of the military track with high prosperity and moderate valuation has been increasing.
There are many indications that not only brokerage analysts sing a lot, but public and private equity and other institutions also put out real money to stand in line.
FromOrient SecuritiesStatistics show that in the second quarter, the proportion of active fund military holdings and the market value both rebounded significantly. Among them, the market value of active fund holdings of military industry increased by 25.80% from the previous month, and the proportion of holdings increased by 0.20 percentage points from the previous month. At the same time, the range of over-allocation of active funds in the military industry sector expanded. The over-allocation in the second quarter was 0.42%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points compared to the first quarter.
It is worth mentioning that, in addition to the heavy holdings of public funds, the total market value of the shares held by the military industry has reached a record high. Recently, many national defense and military industry themed funds have also received net purchases of funds.
Take Cathay Pacific’s military ETF as an example. In the past month, the fund’s share has increased by 1.76 billion shares to 12.457 billion, an increase of more than 14%, of which the share has increased by 1.235 billion in the past two weeks. If estimated at an average transaction price of 1.227 yuan, the Cathay Pacific military ETF received a net purchase of 2.16 billion yuan in a month. It is worth mentioning that the net value of the fund has reached 16.6 billion yuan, which is a record high.
In addition to public funds, the published semi-annual reports of listed companies show that many military industry stocks are also favored by private equity and other institutional funds.
For example, the Gaoyi Linshan No. 1 Yuanwang Fund, a subsidiary of the well-known private equity Shanghai Gaoyi Assets, has newly entered in the second quarter.Western SuperconductorThe list of the top ten tradable shareholders, with a stock market value of 973 million yuan, holding 4.83% of the shares, and ranking the fifth largest floating shareholder; Shanghai Panyao Assets’ Phase III Securities Investment Fund has newly entered in the second quarterZhenxin TechnologyThe list of the top ten tradable shareholders, with a stock market value of 65 million yuan and a shareholding ratio of 0.66%, ranking the ninth largest tradable shareholder;Tunan sharesIn the list of the top ten tradable shareholders, in addition to public funds, there are also insurance funds and private equity institutions, but they are not new in the second quarter.
High-quality fund managers are optimistic about the long-term trend of military industry
In the eyes of many fund managers, the long-term trend of the military industry has become clear. In the future, the investment logic of this sector will return from short-term games to industry prosperity and company fundamentals.
Wang Xiaoli, Manager of China Security Military Industry Fund, said that the current market conditions of the military industry sector have not truly reflected the fundamentals of the military industry. He firmly believes that the main investment logic of the military industry sector will switch from a hot game to long-term fundamentals. The industry boom trend of the industry and the performance of listed companies.
“We have full confidence in military investment in the next six months to one year: From a fundamental point of view, the long-term trend of the military industry has been verified. The next ten years will be the golden age of leapfrog development of the military industry. Combined with the release of listed company statements and the second quarter According to the industry research, we judged that the military industry’s trend direction has become clear, the growth curve of aviation aircraft, missiles, informatization, and aero engines has entered a stage of rapid upward movement. All links of the industry chain have shown that leading companies are accelerating the gathering and platform companies. The emerging situation, of course, the current stage of corporate governance and other issues still exist objectively, Q3-Q4 in 2021 will form a boom in the upstream and downstream of the military industry chain; from the performance of the capital side, we observe that long-term funds are more used in the stock price of military assets Bottom buy pricing; from the perspective of the game, the current market’s divergence on the persistence and long-term performance of the military industry is gradually converging rather than expanding. The next quarter may become an important investment time for the military industry in 2021 or even the next two years. window.”
The second quarter report shows that during the period of China Security Military Industry, it maintained a high position operation, focusing on the long-term core assets and long-term track of the military industry, and managing outstanding technology growth stocks, and focusing on investing in the aviation industry chain, aero engine industry chain, and missile industry. Chain and national defense informatization.
Changxin National Defense and Military Industry Quantitative Fund Manager Sang Haian said that the defense and military industry sector is expected to maintain a high boom, and is optimistic about the performance release capabilities of upstream military electronic components and new materials, and is optimistic about the cash flow statements and cash flow statements of core companies in the mid- and downstream high-prosperity track The marginal increase in the income statement. After the adjustment in the first quarter, the current valuation of the military industry sector is at the historical central level, with more high-quality growth stocks PEG<1 and higher cost performance. With the gradual realization of performance, it is expected that the valuation switch market will be deduced in the second half of the year.
Zheng Xiaoxi, manager of the Southern Military Industry Reform Fund, said that the current global geopolitical situation is tightening, and the long-term prosperity of national defense construction is highly certain. The construction of a new generation of equipment drives a new round of demand. There is a large gap between the level of military modernization and national security requirements, and there is also a large gap between the level of the world’s advanced military. With regard to the construction of 5G and semiconductors, the mass production and installation of core new equipment is entering a countdown or acceleration period, and the attractiveness of national defense standards with core asset attributes is beginning to highlight. This year is the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan. The orders and performance of core military industry companies are expected to continue the high growth last year, supporting the continued improvement of industry fundamentals.
Zheng Ling, manager of the China Post Military-civilian Integration Fund, said that through industry chain research and feedback, the prosperity of listed companies in the military industry continues to support orders and performance. As the performance of listed companies is fulfilled quarter by quarter, the military industry will Gradually attract the attention of the market.
Li Xuan, manager of SDIC UBS National Security Fund, said that the fund positions in the second quarter were mainly concentrated in mainframe companies and important branch system companies whose financial reports may indicate good cash flow. In addition, some material companies with high technical content and long life cycles are also deployed.In his opinion, my country’s defense industry has a good start in 2021, and it is expected that the core military industry stocks will perform well in 2021.
Seller agencies collectively sing multiple military sectors
With the successive disclosures of the semi-annual reports of listed companies, due to the generally better performance of the military industry companies that have been disclosed in the interim reports, more and more sell-side analysts have recently sung the military industry sector. In the past weekend, several securities firm research departments have successively released research reports on the multi-military sector.
For example, 8thGuosen SecuritiesLooking forward to the release of the military industry’s mid-term report, it pays attention to the expected inflection point of the performance of the core OEMs in the downstream of the industrial chain. According to the report, in the early and mid-term strategy, a judgment of this year’s mid-term report was specifically mentioned: the high growth rate focused on the upstream target, the midstream began to release, and the downstream gradually entered an inflection point.
At present, we suggest that we pay attention to the gradual downward transmission process after the upstream capacity elasticity of the industrial chain is reflected. At present, we have observed that the downstream OEM’s guarantee supply capacity has gradually entered the upgrading stage, superimposing the high prepayment of the OEM on the balance sheet. Its balance sheet and profit statement are expected to enter a turning point for the better, especially the increase in net profit margins of OEMs.We think it’s similar to the one under the high-demand trackAero Engine、AVIC Shen FeiThe performance of other OEMs is expected to usher in an inflection point. Guosen Securities said.
On the same day, Debon Securities released a report that at present, the CITIC National Defense Military Industry Index PE-TTM is 83 times, which is 67.84% in the past 5 years. The Shenwan National Defense and Military Industry Index PE-TTM is 72 times, which is in the 59.61% quintile of the history of the past 5 years. Considering that the current valuation level of the military industry can be digested by the high growth of performance, the allocation value is still there.
“We believe that the boom in the military industry is just getting started, and it is both sustainable and certain in the medium and long term. Under the guidance of the goal of’building a world-class military’, the military industry has a vast market space and the weapons at the current point in time. Equipment construction is just the beginning.”
Debon Securities also said that as the market’s understanding of the military industry continues to deepen, the military industry is expected to emerge from a wave of “long bulls.” Looking to the future, as more military industry companies gradually disclose their performance forecasts, the industry’s prosperity will be further fully verified. In the future, industry investment opportunities will still focus on the improvement in both quality and quantity of weaponry and support equipment.
also,China Securities、GF Securities, Essence Securities,China Sea Securities、Southwest Securities, AVIC Securities, Guosheng Securities,Everbright SecuritiesMany brokerage companies have also released the latest reports on the military industry sector.
It’s worth mentioning that last week,Industrial SecuritiesGlobal chief strategist Zhang Yidong’s view that “the current military industry is very similar to the new energy vehicles of the previous two years” has received a lot of attention. Zhang Yidong said that some of the front-line military companies that were not listed on the market received feedback that they had never seen such a good order and prosperity in decades, but the market did not fully reflect the growth of military industry.
Sina statement: This news is reprinted from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, and does not mean that it agrees with its views or confirms its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
Massive information, accurate interpretation, all in Sina Finance APP
Editor in charge: Chen Youran
.