Original title: The new energy vehicle market is hot and the short-term supply of lithium carbonate is tight Source: China Securities Journal · China Securities Network
According to Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network (SMM) data, on January 11, the average spot price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 313,000 yuan / ton, a single-day increase of 5,000 yuan / ton. According to statistics, since January 2022, the average spot price of lithium carbonate has risen by 12.59%. Industry insiders said that the imbalance between supply and demand of lithium salts due to lack of minerals and seasonal production cuts, coupled with the continued hot demand for new energy vehicles, has pushed up the spot price of raw materials for power batteries such as lithium carbonate.
supply reduction
Guosheng Securities believes that at the end of 2021, some manufacturers will shut down for maintenance, lithium carbonate production has declined for nine consecutive weeks, and the gap between supply and demand is still widening. It is expected that the short-term price of lithium carbonate will rise strongly.
According to the analysis of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, as the Spring Festival approaches, the maintenance of lithium salt manufacturers has led to a decrease in lithium salt production, but the demand for downstream stocking is strong, and the price of lithium salt continues to rise. In January 2022, the production schedule of the cathode material factory has not changed much, and the market supply is relatively small. It is expected that battery-grade lithium carbonate may exceed 350,000 yuan / ton by April.
Shengang Securities said that the rapid development of new energy vehicles has greatly increased the demand for lithium carbonate, especially battery-grade lithium carbonate, which is the core raw material for the production of lithium battery cathode materials. It is estimated that the demand for lithium carbonate in 2022 will reach 540,000 tons, while the supply of lithium carbonate in my country in 2021 is only about 229,000 tons, and the gap between supply and demand is huge.
Demand
The strong demand growth in the new energy vehicle consumer market is the main reason for pushing up the price of lithium carbonate, a raw material for power batteries.
According to data from the Passenger Federation, in December 2021, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 505,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 138.9% and a month-on-month increase of 17.8%. From January to December 2021, 3.312 million new energy passenger vehicles were wholesaled, a year-on-year increase of 181.0%. In December 2021, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 475,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 128.8% and a month-on-month increase of 25.4%. From January to December 2021, the retail sales of new energy vehicles was 2.989 million, a year-on-year increase of 169.1%.
The China Passenger Transport Association pointed out that the trend of new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles is strongly differentiated, which realizes the partial substitution effect of new energy vehicles on the fuel vehicle market, and proves the changes in consumer demand through the market-oriented choices of users, and drives the auto market to accelerate. The pace of transition to new energy.
Previously, the market was once worried that due to the decline of state subsidies for new energy vehicles, the sales of new energy vehicles and the profits of car companies will be under pressure in 2022. According to the newly released policy, the current purchase subsidy technical index system framework and threshold requirements will remain unchanged in 2022, and the subsidy scale will not be locked from the original expected 2 million subsidy scale, which will run through 2022. subsidy. With the doubling of the scale of the new energy industry chain and the improvement of cost reduction capabilities, it is expected that the increase in new energy vehicles by the end of 2022 will be strong.
The Federation of Passenger Transport Associations also adjusted the sales forecast of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022, from 4.8 million to more than 5.5 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach about 25%; the sales of new energy vehicles are expected to exceed 6 million, and the penetration rate will be around 22%.
source:China Securities Journal · China Securities Network
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