The world of open-air holidays is looking at summer 2022 with a certain optimism. According to forecasts, among campsites, villages and glamping sites there will be between 48 and 45.4 million presences along the Peninsula with a growth between 8% and 2% compared to 2021. Trend that points to the recovery of pre-pandemic levels but to recover there is a fork between -14% and -18% on 2019. The 2022 season, however, seems better than the previous one for the open sector air in the Peninsula, with Italy as the main market and a more or less marked recovery in international demand. Of the approximately 48 – 45.4 million expected presences, 54% are Italian with growth ranging from 8% in the best scenario to 2% in the worst. Thus continues the positive trend recorded in 2021 with a + 38% on 2020. The daily expenditure per capita is estimated at 53 euros for a turnover between 2.4 and 2.5 billion. There are signs of recovery in arrivals from the main foreign markets: Germany, Austria, Switzerland, France and the Netherlands. This is the picture that emerges from the forecasts of the new «Observatory of outdoor tourism» by Human Company, a Florentine group leader in Italy in outdoor hospitality, created in collaboration with Thrends, a company specializing in analysis and strategies in the tourism & hospitality sector.
Forecasts
«Our estimate for the summer of 2022 is based on the model of the forecasts made in 2021 which, compared to the final balance, have proved to be well founded. If there is no escalation in the ongoing conflict, it will be a very positive outdoor summer, with an almost total recovery of pre-pandemic volumes in terms of attendance – between -14% and -18% compared to 2019 for the whole camping and village sector – and an even higher turnover. In this two-year period 2021-2022, the propensity to spend seems much higher than in the past: a sort of awareness / acceptance of higher rates in tourist services has formed in the demand, a dynamic which however opens the door to greater expectations and to the search for more articulated experiences. and authentic »explains Giorgio Ribaudo, director of Thrends. This year the analysis focuses on a smaller segment: that of outdoor travel and camping and villages as reference accommodation facilities. Starting from the current macro-economic framework, primarily influenced by the war in Ukraine and complicated by a pandemic context that is still uncertain, although in the process of normalization, and using Istat and Eurostat sources for the historian of the sector, the 2022 Observatory assumes two possible scenarios for open-air tourism: the resolution of the conflict by 15 May with a significant increase in the flow of presences from Germany, Austria and Switzerland and from central-northern European countries or the perpetration of the war with a consequent increase in instability, insecurity and generalized state of alert. The best hypothesis sees 48 million admissions with a growth forecast compared to last year (+ 8%) and close to the pre-Covid results of 2019 (-14%), with a total expenditure generated equal to 2.55 billion euros against an average cost of 53 euros per day per guest. In this scenario, the Italian market stands at 26 million presences in campsites and villages, with a decline of only 5.2% compared to the pre-pandemic results of 2019. A figure that is part of the recovery and growth path: if in 2021 had been moderate (+ 0.5% due to the lack of confidence in moving between May and June), in 2022 the presence of Italians can increase by more than 12 percentage points, recovering the first part of the season, stabilizing in the peaks of summer and confirming a growing trend towards the end of the season. In the worst-case scenario assumed by the report, the estimated attendance stands at 45.4 million, marking a substantial stalemate compared to the levels of last summer (+ 2%) and with a more marked decline compared to 2019 (-18%) due to an impact economic amount of 2.41 billion euros. In this case, it is the foreign market that slows down attendance, while the Italian market remains substantially stable with 25 million (+ 8% compared to 2021 and the same percentage but down on 2019). The incoming will be essential to give further impetus to the season. In the best forecast for the summer of 2022, the foreign market sees an increase of almost 8% compared to 2021, which brings it to around 22 million admissions. In the most pessimistic scenario for international markets, a tourist flow is estimated in line with what was recorded in 2021 (-0.4%) for a total of about 20 million visitors. As for the forecast of the presences of the top 5 foreign markets (Germany, Austria, Switzerland, the Netherlands and France represented 88% of all international presences in 2021) the best hypothesis estimates a general increase in the next summer with a average of over 9% more presences (equal to approximately 19.5 million presences of the top 5 foreign markets) and volumes that tend to return very close to 2019 for the DACH markets (range between -4% and -5% ). The Netherlands and France remain further apart from the last year before Covid 2019 (-31.8% and -36.6% respectively). In the worst case, there will be a situation that stopped last season, which substantially confirms the 2021 volumes with around 18 million admissions.
The six new open air trends
To better understand what is happening in the open air tourism market, and more generally in the outdoor one, it is necessary to observe its evolution in recent years. If on the one hand the pandemic has brought people closer to a concept of experiential tourism, in contact with nature, more aware and of proximity, on the other the open air segment has changed its skin, offering quality services and every type of comfort. . Thanks to technology, today outdoor experiences have become mainstream: the outdoor universe is no longer considered as cheap, difficult and for the few, but it has become cool, easy and affordable for anyone. In the same way, the evolution of needs has made open air a service delivery to allow guests to better enjoy their stay both inside the structures, from the pitches to the restaurant and shopping offer, and outside, with an offer of broad and diverse experiences. This is how open air is also wellness, understood as natural well-being that leads to greater self-care and relaxation: a goal that outdoor tourism already carries in its DNA. Just like its green nature: and if it is true that the concept of sustainable travel is on everyone’s lips, it is equally true that today travelers want to find solutions that are already sustainable and that allow it to be sustainable in turn. The sharing economy is one of the most recent outdoor trends: this confirms the boom in the last two years of sharing economy platforms applied to outdoor tourism, such as Yescapa (camper rental platform), Goboony (platform for camper rental) and Click & Boat (boat rental platform). Among the latest trends there is also the contamination of classic hospitality formats, which take inspiration from others to innovate their offer. Examples are glamping – the last frontier of open air tourism that combines camping with the glamor of full comfort accommodation – or the new hotel accommodation formulas, which explore the outdoors including typical elements of the open air, such as rooms or wellness areas. connected with the surrounding space.