(Original title: The planned total installed capacity of 455GW centralized photovoltaic power station in the Wind and Solar Base may welcome the development boom again)
Cailian News Agency (Hefei, reporter Liu Mengran), on February 26, the National Energy Administration issued a notice on the “Planning and Layout Plan for Large-scale Wind Power and Photovoltaic Bases Focusing on Deserts, Gobi and Desert Areas”. Industry analysts believe that under the promotion of policies, wind and solar energy equipment manufacturing will usher in greater development opportunities, relying on large new energy bases to develop new energy industry chains, attracting new energy equipment manufacturing such as photovoltaics, wind power, inverters, energy storage, and hydrogen energy. of high-quality manufacturers to invest in industrial projects.
The large-scale wind and solar base project is one of the important paths to achieve the dual-carbon goal. From the overall plan, by 2030, the total installed capacity of the planned construction of the wind and solar base is about 455GW. With the construction of the large-scale wind and solar base project, the centralized photovoltaic power station will usher in a new round of development boom.
The document mentions that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the total installed capacity of the wind and solar base is about 200 million kilowatts, including 150 million kilowatts for external delivery and 50 million kilowatts for local self-use. , including 165 million kilowatts for delivery and 90 million kilowatts for local use.
A reporter from the Financial Associated Press noted that by the end of December 2021, the first batch of large-scale scenery base projects in my country had started construction of about 75 million kilowatts. The first batch of large-scale scenery base projects involved 19 provinces including Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Gansu, Hunan, and Anhui, with a total scale of 97.05GW.
The second batch of large-scale scenery bases are concentrated in the Sanbei area. According to the plan, the planned installed capacity of Kubuqi, Ulanbuhe, Tengger, and Badain Jaran desert bases is 284 million kilowatts, the planned installed capacity of coal mining subsidence areas is 37 million kilowatts, and the planned installed capacity of other desert and Gobi areas is 134 million kilowatts. Industry analysts believe that the second batch of bases pays more attention to consumption. Combined with the existing coal power sources around the bases, the peak-shaving capacity of thermal power is used to carry out the joint delivery of “thermal power + new energy”, so this batch is mainly for external delivery.
For many years before, centralized photovoltaic power plants have been the “main force” of newly installed photovoltaic capacity. In 2021, affected by the price increase in the supply chain, the cost of centralized photovoltaic power station systems will increase instead of falling for the first time in 13 years, resulting in less than expected new installed capacity, and the proportion of distributed systems will exceed that of centralized systems for the first time.
An industry analyst told a reporter from the Financial Associated Press that with the continuous advancement of the scenery and large base policy, the development of centralized photovoltaic power plants may enter a new period of dividend development. In addition, CPIA predicts that with the gradual release of new production capacity in all links of the industrial chain in 2022, the price of components will return to a reasonable level, and the investment cost of ground photovoltaic power station systems will drop by 5.3% to 3.93 yuan / watt.
Driven by the huge reserves of photovoltaic power generation projects, domestic photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to grow significantly. CPIA predicts that it may increase to more than 75GW in 2022, and it is expected that my country’s annual new photovoltaic installed capacity will reach 83-99GW in 2022-2025.
The research report of Kaiyuan Securities believes that under the background of the dual carbon goals, the development pace of wind power and photovoltaic bases is accelerating, and they will become the main force of new energy installed capacity in the “14th Five-Year Plan” and for a long period of time in the future. Market + electricity market-oriented reform, components, inverters and other terminal links with better competition pattern, thermal field, plastic film, diamond wire and other auxiliary materials industry chain with better medium and long-term supply and demand, as well as technologically innovative heterojunction, particle Silicon etc.