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[Fangzheng Viewpoint]The platform is still gaining momentum and the trend has not changed——0222
Source: Viagra on the market
core point of view
In the current situation where the market is in a heavy wait-and-see mood, the shift of funds on the market to the cyclical sector has a strong defensive meaning, and foreign capital has also shifted to the blue-chip sector with strong certainty. In the medium and long term, the mainline status of the technology growth sector has not been shaken.
Disk Analysis
Yesterday, the broader market failed to hit 3310 points again, and fell back again. However, theme stocks in late trading boosted market confidence. After the broader market rebounded, it continued to stand above 3300 points. In the end, the broader market closed up 0.49%, the GEM fell 0.44%, and the total trading volume of the two cities decreased by 2.99% compared with the previous trading day. Funds are mainly on the sidelines, sentiment is basically stable, and confidence is still relatively sufficient.
The amount of energy has decreased, the activity of individual stocks has not diminished, and the differentiation has increased. Yesterday, 15 stocks had a daily limit, 1 stock had a 20% daily limit, 19 stocks rose above the 10% daily limit, and 3 stocks fell within More than 10%, no individual stock limit down, there are 105 stocks with an increase of more than 5%, and 29 stocks with a decline of more than 5%. The Shenwanquan sector closed with an increase. Iron ore, coal, precious metals, new energy vehicles, phosphorus chemicals, rare earths, etc. had higher gains, while online games, liquor, ChatGPT concepts, catering and tourism, and special effects drugs for the new crown were the weakest performers. , The pro-cyclical sector continued its upward trend, the profit-making effect remained unabated, and the money-losing effect still existed.
technical analysis
From a technical point of view, the market opened higher on Tuesday and once rushed higher, and began to fall back and fluctuate around the previous closing point in the afternoon. It rebounded in late trading, and showed a trend of rising prices and shrinking volumes. The market closed barely above 3300 points, and all the moving averages were long, but they were far away from the 5-day moving average. Technically, there was an overbought situation. If it is difficult to release the energy, it is still difficult to break through the high point of the year in the short term.
The technical indicators of the time-sharing chart show that the 15-minute SKD indicator is golden crossing, and the 15-minute MACD indicator is about to be golden crossing. Strong callback pressure.
The price of the SSE 50 is rising and the volume is shrinking. All the moving averages are arranged in long positions. The 20-day moving average is supported. The price is rising and the volume is shrinking.
The price of the GEM has fallen and the volume has shrunk, and the short-term moving average continues to be short-term. The 5-day line is under pressure. The volume-price relationship between the price drop and the volume shrinkage means that the market is not strong enough. In addition, the 60-minute MACD indicator is about to cross, and there is a certain short-term rebound requirement. .
Based on comprehensive technical analysis, we believe that if it is difficult to continuously and effectively release the short-term market volume, it will be difficult for the market to break through the platform pressure. If you want to effectively stand above 3310 points, you first need to continuously release the volume energy, and secondly, the market needs 3 consecutive transactions The day stands firmly above 3310 points, otherwise the market will remain range-bound, trading time for space.
Fundamental analysis
On Monday, A-shares ushered in a long-lost surge. Thanks to the implementation of the comprehensive registration system, A-share stocks of all sizes and market capitalization rose together, and the blue-chip and theme growth sectors also ushered in a “resonant” rise. We have emphasized many times recently that the comprehensive registration system will have a far-reaching impact on the domestic capital market, and it also indicates that under the reform of the comprehensive registration system, it will be a major benefit to A shares in the medium and long term.
However, on Tuesday, the broader market failed to continue Monday’s strength and continue to rise. Although stimulated by news related to real estate on Monday night, funds poured into the real estate sector in the early trading, but dragged down by fundamentals, the sector did not go out of an obvious upward trend. The brokerage sector affected by the implementation also failed to continue Monday’s surge. We believe that the current positioning of securities companies is closer to the theme sector that has risen due to market news stimulation. Therefore, under the expected fulfillment, its sustainability comes from whether incremental funds continue to pour into the sector, and whether funds are willing to enter the market depends on Based on the position of the market’s risk preference, if the subsequent market continues to rise, break through the high point of the platform and continue to increase in volume, the brokerage sector is expected to become the “standard bearer” of the bull market again. Sustainability after cashing out remains to be seen.
This week, in addition to the strength of the brokerage sector stimulated by the good news of the implementation of the full registration system, the pro-cyclical and infrastructure sectors also strengthened significantly. We have emphasized before that under the strong expectation of economic recovery this year, infrastructure will continue to bear the previous burden. The economic task, as can be seen from the financial data and high-frequency data in January, after the funds are gradually in place, various infrastructure projects are also speeding up. From the perspective of the path of economic recovery, engineering projects are the first, and as demand increases The rise is gradually transmitted to upstream raw materials and midstream manufacturing. Finally, with the improvement of employment and the increase of residents’ income, the consumer side will gradually recover after experiencing a “retaliatory” recovery under the double improvement of residents’ consumption ability and willingness to consume. Return to pre-pandemic normalcy. However, there are many uncertainties in the realization of the above-mentioned path. Under the current background of “strong expectations and weak reality”, funds also have great doubts about it.
From the perspective of the recovery path of consumption, the number of trips by residents during the Spring Festival this year has recovered to 89% of that in 2019, and the willingness to consume has recovered significantly, but the consumption level in the same period is only 73% of that in 2019. The deviation lies in the residents In the absence of the “wealth effect”, the willingness to consume in the middle and high end has declined significantly. We expect that the social zero data in the first year will also clearly show the structural characteristics of mandatory consumption stronger than optional consumption. We have repeatedly emphasized the importance of the “wealth effect” to residents’ consumption in the report, and now that the biggest impact factor of the epidemic has disappeared, the decline in consumption intention caused by the lack of residents’ “wealth effect” is even more prominent , This is also one of the reasons for the current “weak reality”, and it is also one of the reasons why funds have doubts about whether “strong expectations” can be realized.
Judging from the current market, the concentration of capital holdings is not high. In the second half of last year, the relatively strong “new semi-army”, the Xinchuang sector that began to emerge at the end of last year, the large consumer sector stimulated by strong expectations, and the recent hot ChatGPT Conceptual sectors still have a lot of capital positions and have experienced a round of rises and participated in sector rotations. As for how the follow-up market will go and where the main line is, it is difficult for funds to get rid of the completely independent thinking of holding positions, which is why the current market It is difficult for funds to form a joint force, and the logic of the faster plate rotation lies. In this case, a short-term correction in the broader market will obviously impact market sentiment, market risk appetite will fall, and funds will show obvious risk aversion.
We believe that the recent strength of the cyclical industry is the concretization of the above logic. On the one hand, its strength lies in the certainty of the recovery of the pro-cyclical industry. Insufficient willingness to continue chasing higher levels, so there is a certain defensive demand. In the past, the large consumption and financial sectors with obvious defensive attributes have experienced a round of rise, while the valuations of coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals in the cyclical sector are still at low levels. Funds It is also reasonable to pour into the above-mentioned plates.
However, the strength of the current cyclical sector does not represent a change in the main line of the market or the end of the market. Its essence is still a defensive behavior under the demand for capital hedging. With the comprehensive registration system starting the second half of the A-share bull market, the growth of the technology growth sector The dominant trend of theme stocks has not changed. At present, the broader market still needs to continue to wash away floating chips in the early chip-intensive area. In the case that the amount of energy has not been continuously and significantly released, the time-for-space range shock is still the main operation In this way, the market is expected to go up more “easy” after the profit-making and locked-in orders gradually leave the market.
operating strategy
Yesterday, the net inflow of capital from Beijing was 1.854 billion yuan, of which the Shanghai stock market had a net inflow of 2.641 billion yuan, and the Shenzhen stock market had a net outflow of 787 million yuan. In the current situation where the market is in a wait-and-see mood, the shift of funds on the market to the cyclical sector has a strong defensive meaning. Foreign capital is also turning to the blue-chip sector with strong certainty. This is a normal rebalancing behavior of funds for short-term theme sectors with excessive growth. In the medium and long term, the mainline position of the technology growth sector has not yet been shaken. In terms of operation, when the systemic market is expected to appear, pay attention to the structural opportunities with trending market, and pay attention to the securities companies closely related to the registration system when the market is low. In industries such as the Internet, media entertainment, information technology, big data, etc., avoid junk stocks and stocks with “high” stock prices.
Timing Simulated Stock Portfolios
Exhibit 1: 2023 Simulated Stock Portfolio
Data Sources:Founder SecuritiesInstitute WIND Information
Chart 2: Portfolio relative to CSI 300 return chart
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