The price elasticity of bi-coke is relatively large, and the demand for coke in the later stage is weak | steel mills_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: Sinosteel Futures Author: Sinosteel Futures

Research report text

【logic】:

Yesterday, the ferrous metal plate operated in shock as a whole, and the shock in the night market was relatively strong.coking coalThe main force is changed to 2305 contract. It is worth noting that since 2304 and later contracts, coking coal will implement new delivery standards and delivery warehouse premiums and discounts. After calculation, it is found that taking a medium-sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi as an example, the cost of warehouse receipts under the new standard Compared with the old standard, it has dropped by more than 300 yuan/ton. On the spot side of the double coke, the coke price has risen after the second round and is temporarily stable; the coking coal auction situation is acceptable, the flow rate is relatively low, and the price is stable and rising.

fromCokeFrom a fundamental point of view, coke enterprises have not yet reversed the loss pattern. The average ton coke loss of independent coke enterprises surveyed last week was 168 yuan, and the market still has profit recovery expectations; the current utilization rate of coking production capacity remains at a low level, and there is no accumulation in the factory pressure. On the demand side, steel mills are also in a state of loss. Due to the pressure of losses, steel mills are still in the process of reducing production. Last week, the average daily molten iron in the blast furnace of steel mills remained at about 2.22 million tons. Looking at the later stage, the overall pressure to control crude steel production this year is not great, and steel mills have limited space for passive production reduction. Production reduction plans, while steel mills continue to adopt low raw material inventory strategies, it is expected that steel mills will also be weaker in coke replenishment than in previous years. Therefore, coke demand may remain weak in the later period, and it will be more difficult for coke companies to raise prices.

coking coalOn the one hand, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains relatively high. Recent data show that the daily customs clearance of Ganqimaodu Port is maintained at about 750 vehicles, and the customs clearance of AGV mode is maintained at about 60 vehicles. Among them, the current inventory in the supervision area has dropped to below 2.4 million tons, and it is expected to further recover with the relaxation of domestic epidemic prevention and control policies in the later period.

【View】:

Recently, domestic epidemic control policies tend to be relaxed in general, and the macro level continues to increase the stimulus of real estate stabilization policies, boosting market sentiment. The price of bifocals is relatively flexible and fluctuates violently. In the process of changing the main contract, it is recommended to be cautious and wait and see in the short term.

[Later attention/risk factors]:

Pay attention to changes in the pace of blast furnace production in steel mills; customs clearance of Mongolian coal and winter storage in steel mills.

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