Research report text
【View】
The inventory on the supply side remains low, and the V-shaped reversal of coal prices will continue to restrain the progress of recovery in the future. The start-up of the external market has not changed much from the previous month, and multiple sets of equipment in Iran have not yet restarted, and the forecast for the two-week arrival in Hong Kong is still at a low level of about 430,000 tons.
On the demand side, the traditional weighted start-up seasonally rebounded to a mid-to-high level in the same period; the start-up of emerging demand fell month-on-month, and Ningbo Funde short-term cashed in. The current MTO raw material inventory is generally low.
To sum up, the supply in the mainland continues to be low, and the inventory pressure is not great. There is little pressure on port arrivals, high basis and low circulation inventory, and the mentality of reluctance to sell under the import cost is obvious. The short-term market will follow the coal price for valuation restoration. In the medium term, internal and external supply will gradually recover, or there may be pressure.
【Fundamentals】
supply:
Domestic supply: The operating rate was 69% (70.2%). Northwest China and North China started to decline. International supply: The operating rate was 64.99% (63.61%). Iran maintained the previous stage, and multiple sets of equipment have not been restarted.
need:
Traditional demand: The weighted operating rate is 38.05% (36.81%). Formaldehyde starts to pick up Emerging demand: MTO operating rate is 72.97% (74.34%) Ningbo Fude parking, Datang Duolun integrated full-line parking.
in stock:
Port inventory: 50.2 (55.5) Arrivals to Hong Kong are low and shipments are also high. Inland sample inventory: 41.12 (46.41) Northwest production and sales are good, and the volume of pending orders has rebounded.
profit:
MethanolProduction profit: Northwest 137 (72) mainland enterprises’ profits temporarily turned positive downstream profits: a port MTO enterprise -301 (-291); formaldehyde -44 (-8); acetic acid 433 (464); dimethyl ether -40 (107); The MTO cash flow of MTBE-487 (-585) ports has not changed much, and the economy is still poor; traditional downstream profits generally fall, and DME turns into a loss.
Spread:
Futures 5-9: 65 (47)
Spot – paper goods in a row: 20(40)
May basis: 96 (136)
Import Theoretical Profit: -20(-9)
Factory Warehouse Receipt (converted board): Shandong 2870 (2730); Henan 2770 (2780); Hebei 2760 (2690)
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