The short-term weak reality is more obvious, and the urea disk continues to adjust_Sina Finance_Sina.com

Source: CCB Futures Author: CCB Futures

Research report text

1. Market review and outlook

Market performance:Urea WorkhorseFutures contract prices are weak. The closing price of UR2305 was 2,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.77%. The transaction volume was 112,350 lots, and the open interest was 158,612 lots, a net increase of 3,907 lots.

Spot quotation:The ex-factory price of urea (small particles) has loosened. The ex-factory price of Henan Jinkai is 2,740 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of Henan Xinlianxin is 2,805 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of Yangmei Plain is 2,770 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of Hualu Hengsheng is 2,760 yuan/ton; The ex-factory price of orchids in Shanxi is 2,750 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of Hebei Dongguang is 2,700 yuan/ton (-20); the ex-factory price of Hebei Zhengyuan is 2,700 yuan/ton (-20).

Market outlook:On the supply side, the stable operation of coal-based plants, the gradual resumption of production of gas-based plants, and the gradual recovery of supply; on the demand side, agricultural demand will gradually start, but it will still take time for centralized release; the company’s advance orders are stable, and there is a short-term loosening, and supply and demand are wrong. The distribution pressure is still reflected on the inventory side, but the market outlook is still dominated by active destocking. The 05 contract price is still expected to have a strong support, and the short-term weak reality is more obvious. The continuous adjustment of the market will take the lead in cashing out the negative factors.

risk warning:Macroeconomic risks, export policy shifts, and large-scale plant shutdowns.

2. Data overview

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