Revenue growth slows down, profit scale shrinks:interest ratebottoming out, provision for impairment, fewshareholderIn 2021, the overall revenue of A-share listed real estate companies will increase by 8.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate will decrease by 2.3pct year-on-year.net profitA year-on-year decrease of 78.4%, a year-on-year decline of 62.5pct in growth rate. 29 of the 121 listed real estate companies are facing losses, an increase of 7 from 2020; the total loss is about 100.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 194.4%. Listed real estate companies by the end of 2021contractThe balance of liabilities was 3.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%.performanceThe guarantee level is 117.7%, and sufficient advance receipts provide a certain guarantee for revenue growth. However, due to the high land prices since 2017, the new house price limit policy, and price reductions and promotions since 2021H2, it is expected that the gross settlement will beinterest rateDownward pressure remains and will continue to have a negative impact on the profit side.
Gross profit margin accelerates to bottom, finance and sales expense ratio rises: Affected by price caps for new houses, high land prices, and rising building material costs, the gross profit margin and net profit margin of listed housing companies in 2021 will be 20.6% and 3%, down 6.2 and 6.4pct from 2020 . Although the gross profit margin of real estate companies has improved since the second batch of land supply in 2021, it will take time to reflect on the settlement side, and the short-term gross profit margin will continue to bottom out. In terms of expense ratio, since 2021H2, credit incidents of real estate enterprises have occurred frequently. Except for a few central state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises, the financing of most real estate enterprises has been blocked to varying degrees. In 2021, the financial expense ratio will increase by 0.5pct to 2.8% year-on-year; As a result, real estate companies rely more on channel distribution to speed up the demolition of projects. The sales expense ratio increased by 0.2pct to 2.9% year-on-year, driving the overall period expense ratio to increase by 0.8pct to 9.2% year-on-year.
The sales boom has not stabilized, and assets are intensively disposed of to reduce inventory: In 2021, the cash received by listed housing companies from selling goods and providing labor services will be 3.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%. However, due to the sharp decline in the sales boom since 2021H2, the year-on-year growth rate It has been narrowed by 30.9pct compared with 2021H1. Although the policy has turned warmer since September 2021, and the property market policies in various places have entered a stage of substantial improvement, the monthly sales of the top 100 real estate companies in April 2022 fell by about 60% year-on-year, and the sales boom was not yet stable. Seeing stabilization, the follow-up needs to be strengthened by the “stabilizing real estate” policy, and the second quarter may be an important observation window period. Due to the pressure on the capital side, housing companies have shrunk land acquisition and accelerated the removal of existing land reserves. The growth rate of the overall inventory of the sector has slowed down. In 2021, the overall inventory of the sector will reach 7.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate is higher than that of 2020. The annual decrease was 9.3pct; at the same time, some insurance companies and high-pressure housing companies actively sold their assets and transferred equity in cooperative projects, and the income from asset disposal of A-share listed housing companies increased by 207.1% year-on-year.
The capital side of housing enterprises is under pressure, and the battle for cash flow defense has started: In 2021, the short-term cash-to-debt ratio of A-share listed real estate companies will be 103.6%, the asset-liability ratio after excluding contract liabilities is 72.4%, and the net debt ratio is 74.4%. The asset-liability ratio after debt is slightly over the red line of 70%, and the other two indicators are all up to the standard. Listed real estate companies in 2021medium greenThere were 49 stall housing companies, the same as the previous year, but the total cash on hand of listed housing companies at the end of the period was 1.2 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%, and the total cash on hand was the lowest in the past four years. With the tightening of the financing environment and the increasing downward pressure on sales, and the frequent occurrence of credit incidents in some housing companies, strengthening financial security and ensuring cash flow are the current focus of each housing company.
Investment advice: Affected by the downturn in the industry’s prosperity, the bottoming out of gross profit margin, and the impairment of annual reports, the industry’s net profit in 2021 will shrink sharply, continuing the phenomenon of “increasing income without increasing profits”. defense. At present, under the background of stable growth, local finance and property market transactions are under pressure, and the property market is under great pressure to adjust the volume and price. It is imminent to resolve industry risks and stabilize market expectations. force, driving sector valuations to continue to repair.
The development mainly seizes two types of investment opportunities, one is the strong operation and high-credit enterprises that are expected to seize market share in the medium and long term, such as the relaxation of the short-term benefit policy and the improvement of the gross profit margin of the land acquisition end.Poly Development、Vanke A、Gemdale Group、China Merchants Shekou、Tianjian Group、Riverside GroupEtc.; one category is the relatively large adjustment in the early stage, the fundamentals have certain support, and the policy game is more elastic targets such asNewtown Holdings、Zhongnan Construction、Jinke sharesWait.At the same time, the current PE of mainstream material enterprises is only about 20 times in 2022, and the growth target of 25-50% is still set in the next few years. It is recommended to pay attention toCountry GardenServe,Poly Property、Investment surplus、Jinke Service、Xinchengyue Service、Xingsheng BusinessWait.
Risk reminder: 1) Supply sufficiency to reduce risks: If the local market continues to be cold, the new land reserves of various housing enterprises will be insufficient, which will have a negative impact on the subsequent supply of goods, which will affect industry sales, construction start, investment, and completion. 2) Large-scale impairment risk of real estate enterprises: If the pressure on the property market exceeds expectations, and the sales will be greatly exchanged for price, it will bring some significant impairment risks at high prices in the early stage. 3) Policy protection is less than expected risk.
(Article source: Ping Ansecurities）