Original title: The total amount of credit issued in October was higher than market expectations. Financial support for the real economy increased
Source: Financial Times
Our reporter Lu Yuhang
On November 10, the financial data released by the central bank showed that in October, RMB loans increased by 826.2 billion yuan, an increase of 136.4 billion yuan year-on-year; the increase in social financing was 1.59 trillion yuan, 197 billion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of the month, social financing increased by 10% year-on-year, which was the same as the end of the previous month.
Experts generally believe that the total amount of credit issued in October was higher than market expectations, and financial support for the real economy has increased. Although corporate credit demand is still weak, retail loans have performed better than corporate loans, and personal housing mortgage loans have gradually recovered.
Social financial growth has stabilized
“Overall, the growth rate of credit and social financing stabilized at a low level in October, reversing the previous continued downward trend. Both new credit and social financing increased year-on-year in the month, which means that the marginal credit process has started.” Chief macro analyst Wang Qing said.
In October, Social Finance ended the previous three consecutive months of year-on-year decline. “Since September, in accordance with the Ministry of Finance’s requirement that the issuance of new special bonds should be completed by the end of November, the issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with a year-on-year increase, which has brought some support to social finance. Other projects, such as entrusted Loans, trust loans, etc. continue to maintain a downward trend.” Bank of ChinaResearcher Liang Si said.
existMinsheng BankAccording to lead researcher Wen Bin, the growth rate of credit and social financing stabilized in October, and the increase was slightly higher than expected, reflecting the increased financial support for the real economy.
From the perspective of rhythm, the volatility of credit supply in October has increased, showing the characteristics of “low in the beginning and high in the latter”. The reason,Everbright SecuritiesWang Yifeng, chief analyst of the financial industry, believes that, on the one hand, the central bank has recently strengthened window guidance and demanded a year-on-year increase in loan increments in the fourth quarter; The coming amortization effect will cause the loan increment to be negative first and then positive. However, the volatility of loans increased in October this year. The negative growth trend in the first half of the month was prominent, while the momentum of the second half was more obvious.
Banks force retail loans
In October, residents’ short-term loans increased by 42.6 billion yuan, an increase of 15.4 billion yuan year-on-year. Long-term and medium-term loans to residents increased by 422.1 billion yuan, an increase of 16.2 billion yuan year-on-year, ending the five consecutive months of declining year-on-year growth. These data also reflect the good prosperity of retail loans, and the tightness of residents’ new credit has been eased.
“Among them, credit cards are still the focus of efforts. As for mortgage loans, large banks and joint-stock banks have put in force, and some areas have increased more, financing demand has improved, and pricing has also declined. Follow-up, as the policy is transmitted With the addition of small and medium-sized banks, mortgage loan placement in November is expected to be more optimistic.” Wang Yifeng said.
Recently, the bank’s retail business has performed well. As of the end of September,Postal Savings BankManaged retail customer assets of 12.2 trillion yuan, an annual increase of nearly one trillion yuan; VIP customers exceeded 40 million, and the scale of wealth customers was 3.46 million, an increase of 20.59% over the end of the previous year.China Merchants BankIn the first three quarters, net non-interest income was 100.772 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.57%, accounting for 40.08% of operating income; net fee and commission income was 75.734 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.69%. As of the end of September,Bank of BeijingThe total number of credit card customers reached 4.416 million, an increase of 20% year-on-year, and the activation rate of new cards increased by 6 percentage points year-on-year.
At the end of September, the Central Bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly convened a real estate financial work symposium, and for the first time proposed “accurately grasp and implement the real estate financial macro-prudential management system.” At the press conference of the State Council Information Office on October 21, Liu Zhongrui, head of the Statistical Information and Risk Monitoring Department of the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said that it is necessary to ensure the credit needs of those in need, and support first-home buyers in terms of loan down payment ratio and interest rate.
“The regulatory authorities have corrected the problems in real estate credit of financial institutions from the perspective of preventing risks and ensuring rigid demand, and it is less difficult for residents to obtain medium- and long-term loans. From July to September, the year-on-year reduction in new credit in the residential sector was controlled. 10 Compared with the same period last year, there was a slight increase of about 30 billion yuan.”Bank of CommunicationsSaid Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Financial Research Center.
At the same time, the continuity and stability of housing finance policies are also playing a role. Wang Qing said that since October, the credit risk of real estate companies has continued to be exposed, and banks have been more cautious in lending credit to real estate companies.
“The increase in real estate loans is mainly mortgage loans. The consensus on the increase in development loans is not high. Real estate companies’ back-end financing is more certain than the front-end. In the next stage, the real estate market needs to stabilize sales as soon as possible, accelerate fund recovery, and hedge Shrinking demand has eased the pressure on cash flow.” Wang Yifeng said.
Monetary policy will continue to maintain a sound tone
“Macro policies must continue to make cross-cyclical adjustments and intensify efforts to boost domestic demand. Monetary policy will continue to maintain a sound tone. On the one hand, a combination of multiple monetary policy tools will maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and on the other hand, structural monetary policy tools must be used well. , To increase support for key areas and weak links such as inclusive finance, technological innovation, green development, and rural revitalization, and maintain economic operations within a reasonable range.” Wen Bin said.
In Tang Jianwei’s view, the three major order indexes, including new orders, orders in hand, and new export orders in October, are still below the rise and fall lines, indicating a slowdown in demand. Regarding real estate market transactions, the regulation will still not relax. However, the central bank has recently emphasized maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity, enhancing the stability of total credit growth, and guiding commercial banks to appropriately increase credit allocation. In addition, the central bank has recently announced the launch of carbon emission reduction support tools, and will use incremental funds to increase support for investment and construction in key areas such as clean energy. It is expected that credit and social financing may improve in the future.
“Financial Times” reporters recently learned from a number of banks that the banking industry will continue to increase credit allocation to support the high-quality development of the real economy. ICBC President Liao Lin in 2021Financial StreetAt the annual meeting of the forum, it was stated that it is necessary to benchmark against the watch manufacturing strategy, focus on the main direction and focus, and do a good job in the planning, design and forward-looking layout of manufacturing finance. Grasp the investment direction, scale and quality of investment and financing, give full play to the leverage and guiding role of financial resources, promote the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, promote the development of high-end, intelligent, and green manufacturing, expand the supply of high-quality products, and cultivate new growth drivers.
(Financial Times)
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