Reporter Xu Jie, trainee reporter Chen Xiao
Recently, with the gradual release of policy effects, the transaction activity of real estate markets in many places has increased. On February 19, a number of second-hand housing salespeople in Beijing told the “Securities Daily” reporter that they have been very busy recently as customers came out to view houses one after another.
“The number of viewings must have increased. Usually it’s okay, but I’m so busy on weekends.” A salesperson from Lianjia in Fengtai District, Beijing, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that the houses he mainly maintains in a residential area have been on the market since February. The transaction volume reached 17 or 18 sets, while the transaction volume in the previous few months was not obvious.
In addition, from the changes in sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in January announced by the National Bureau of Statistics on February 16, it can also be seen that the property market in many places is likely to bottom out. Judging from the local new housing market in key cities, there are also many real estate visits that have increased.
In this regard, Xiao Yunxiang, a senior analyst at the Tongce Research Institute, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that since the Spring Festival, the market heat has indeed gradually picked up, showing the trend of Xiaoyangchun. In addition to the continuous release of positive policies from the policy side, which stimulates the demand side to enter the market, the backlog of demand during the Spring Festival month has been released intensively in the near future, so the ring ratio is relatively high. In addition, residents’ expectations have also changed. In general, all parties in the market are working hard to rebuild confidence.
The transaction activity of the real estate market in many places has increased
“The second-hand housing market has become hotter in the past month, and the transaction volume has been significantly higher. On weekends, Beijing Lianjia’s single-day transaction volume is about 500 to 600 units, which is relatively high.” A Lianjia salesperson in Fengtai District, Beijing, told the “Securities Daily” reporter express.
In addition to Beijing, the real estate market in many places across the country has also sent good news one after another. On February 13, data from the Shenzhen Real Estate Intermediary Association showed that in the sixth week of 2023, 784 second-hand housing transactions were recorded in Shenzhen, a month-on-month increase of 40.0%. The volume has exceeded the highest weekly volume recorded in 2022.
On February 16, the National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that in January, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing rose in 36 and 13 cities respectively, an increase of 21 and 6 respectively from the previous month. indivual. According to the latest data from the Middle Finger Research Institute, the number of new commercial housing transactions in the seventh week (February 6-February 12) in key 50 cities across the country was 12,237, a month-on-month increase of 24.7% and a year-on-year increase of 116.4%.
In this regard, Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that the real estate market did have a Xiaoyangchun, but the increase in the month-on-month data in February was mainly due to the Spring Festival factor in the comparison range. In addition, this year’s Xiaoyangchun also benefited from the property market policy Relaxation, and the release of pent-up demand.
Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, told the “Securities Daily” reporter that if the month-on-month and year-on-year increases, it reflects a very good trend. In addition, compared to the previous discussion about the rise in demand due to the backlog, there have also been some changes. In the past, the backlog of demand in real estate led to good data, and it was not observed that the sales offices were very active, but this year not only the sales offices Get active, including second-hand housing sales and so on. Therefore, no matter what the data is, the property market has gradually resumed its activity, and it is moving in the direction of improving market confidence.
Is it expected to get out of the trough in the second quarter?
In the context of policy support and gradual recovery of market confidence, on February 17, Lian Ping, chief economist and director of the research institute of Zhixin Investment, said at the press conference of the 2023 real estate industry annual outlook report: “It is expected that in the second quarter of 2023 At the beginning, the real estate market is expected to gradually walk out of the “bottom”.
“There needs to be a process from the implementation of the policy to the effect.” Lian Ping said that the current operating characteristics of the real estate market are relatively close to those in 2012 to 2013, and belong to the recovery stage under a weak cycle. Housing sales and housing prices will stabilize and rise in the second half of the year. Sales in the real estate market may be low and then high, and housing prices may stabilize as a whole. Housing prices in key cities may be the first to bottom out by the end of the second quarter and rebound.
“According to the real estate market cycle change model of Tongce Research Institute, we believe that this round of down cycle will enter the up range in the second quarter of this year. At present, if the Xiaoyangchun market is established this year, it will be more conducive to the recovery of the market later, especially The recovery of the market in first-tier cities and core second-tier cities will have a better driving effect on the entire market.” Xiao Yunxiang said.
“I think the judgment of getting out of the trough in the second quarter is generally objective. In fact, I think the bottom is already slowly building up now, and the transaction volume of the property market in the second half of this year is expected to be much better.” Yan Yuejin said.