Every time by reporter Guo Rongcun Every time by trainee reporter An Yufei Every time by editor Wenduo
On the evening of January 17, Tinci Materials (002709, SZ) released its 2021 performance forecast. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 2.1 billion to 2.3 billion yuan attributable to the parent in this year, a year-on-year increase of 294.09% to 331.62%, and is expected to achieve a non-net profit of 20.59 From 100 million yuan to 2.259 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 289.72% to 327.57%.
The main products of Tinci Materials are lithium-ion battery materials, daily chemical materials and specialty chemicals. Among them, lithium-ion battery materials mainly include electrolyte and cathode material lithium iron phosphate.
The growth of Tinci Materials’ net profit last year is related to the current “volume and price rise” of electrolytes. The company stated in its performance forecast that during the reporting period, due to the strong growth in demand from the global new energy vehicle industry and downstream customers, the sales volume and price of the company’s lithium-ion battery material electrolyte products both increased significantly year-on-year.
So, as an important part of lithium batteries, how long will the electrolyte be “hot”? How long can the current situation of “both rising in volume and price” last?
The beneficiaries of electrolyte “volume and price rise”
The electrolyte, also known as the “blood of lithium batteries,” is responsible for conducting electrons between the positive and negative electrodes of the battery. At present, the production and sales boom of new energy vehicles in my country is driving the demand for electrolytes all the way up.
A research report from East Asia Qianhai Securities stated that under the background of the continuous high growth of new energy vehicle sales, my country’s electrolyte production level has also increased significantly. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, in November 2021, my country produced a total of 45,000 electrolytes. tons, an increase of nearly 50% year-on-year.
In addition to production volumes, electrolyte prices have also grown significantly over the past year. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, as of January 17, the price of lithium iron phosphate electrolyte in my country was 120,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 189.16% from the price of 41,500 yuan/ton in the same period last year.
If the fundamental reason for the “rising volume and price” of electrolyte is the drive of sales of new energy vehicles, then the direct reason is the increase in the price of the raw material lithium hexafluorophosphate. It is understood that my country’s electrolyte companies generally adopt a cost-plus pricing method, of which lithium hexafluorophosphate, as the most widely used electrolyte solute in commercialization, accounts for the highest proportion of electrolyte costs. A research report from Industrial Securities once stated that in the current electrolyte cost composition, solutes account for 30% to 50%, solvents account for 20% to 30%, and additives account for 10% to 30%.
The research report of East Asia Qianhai Securities shows that since 2021, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has entered a clear upward trend. As of December 17, 2021, the mainstream price of lithium hexafluorophosphate in my country has closed at 550,000 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of about 428.85%.
For Tianci Materials, the “increase in volume and price” of electrolytes has a strong driving force on performance, because the company has mastered a certain production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate, which can be “self-sufficient” to a large extent.
In the first half of 2021, in the context of a substantial increase in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the gross profit margin of related products of Tinci Materials will increase instead of falling. The 2021 semi-annual report shows that Tinci Materials’ lithium-ion battery materials achieved revenue of 3.142 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 36.18%, an increase of 7.07 percentage points over the same period last year.
Can the “volume and price rise” continue?
Tianci Materials can benefit from the “increase in volume and price” of electrolytes, but how long can this “increase in volume and price” continue? Will the “pain of the cycle” recur?
It is understood that the “periodicity” of the price is a major feature of lithium hexafluorophosphate. According to GGII data, at the beginning of 2015, the average price of lithium hexafluorophosphate was 86,000 yuan / ton, and then rose all the way, reaching a high of 420,000 yuan / ton in 2016, and then plummeted. In the first half of 2020, the lowest price Even less than 70,000 yuan / ton.
Now that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate has broken through the previous historical high, will it repeat the same mistakes and fall sharply, and “drag the price of the electrolyte to the bottom”?
Previously, a reporter from “Daily Economic News” interviewed the staff of Tianci Materials Securities Department. The other party said that the reason for the price increase of lithium hexafluorophosphate in 2021 is different from that in 2015 and 2016. At that time, many companies produced lithium hexafluorophosphate to obtain relevant government subsidies. It is not based on market demand. Without the support of demand, the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate will “surge and plummet”. The price increase of hexafluorophosphoric acid is supported by strong market demand, and it is unlikely to repeat the historical situation.
The relevant research report of East Asia Qianhai Securities also believes that the new energy vehicle industry will continue to increase volume, and the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate may continue to remain high. Assuming that my country’s new energy vehicle sales will reach 35% of the total vehicle sales in 2025, the corresponding new energy vehicle sales in 2025 will be 9.1603 million units, corresponding to 3.213 million tons of power battery installed capacity, with more than double room for growth. Under the circumstance that the industry demand will continue to increase in the future, it is expected that the supply and demand relationship of lithium hexafluorophosphate will continue to be tight, driving the price of this product to continue to run at a high level.
However, it should be noted that many electrolyte companies are currently expanding their production capacity. Once the future sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected, these increased production capacity may affect the balance of supply and demand in the electrolyte market, thereby adversely affecting the performance of relevant listed companies. .
For example, Tianci Materials itself has frequently released capacity expansion plans last year. In December 2021, Tinci Materials announced that it plans to invest 820 million yuan to build a company “annual production of 200,000 tons of lithium battery electrolyte project”. In October of the same year, Tinci Materials announced that it planned to invest 1.533 billion yuan to build an “annual production of 300,000 tons of electrolyte and 100,000 tons of iron-lithium battery recycling project”.
According to incomplete statistics from GGII, from the beginning of 2021 to November 2021, the domestic planned new electrolyte production capacity exceeds 800,000 tons. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, my country’s electrolyte production capacity will be 750,900 tons in 2021. This means that in the next few years, the production capacity of electrolytes in my country will increase exponentially, and the competitive pressure of related enterprises will be further intensified.
Source of cover image: Photo Network-401706560
