Last Friday, the major stock indexes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets pulled back across the board. The Shanghai Index fell by more than 1% and fell below 3,300 points. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index both fell by more than 1%. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.12% to 3272.36 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.23% to 11005.64 points, the ChiNext Index fell 1.06% to 2252.38 points, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index fell 1.32%; the total turnover of the two cities was 848.1 billion yuan, and the northbound funds were net buyers Income was 1.326 billion yuan. Most of the sectors in the two cities fell, the media sector fell sharply, the auto, petroleum, financial, wine and other sectors all fell, and the textile and garment sector was active against the market.
Regarding the recent market trend, CITIC Securities stated that the comprehensive and systematic recovery of the economy after the epidemic is a gradual and gradual process. It takes time and patience to re-rotate the flywheel. Thematic trading is a phased product in the process of lowering excessive economic expectations. The effectiveness of market pricing has been reduced, but the potential return of performance-driven strategies has also been increased. The peak of thematic transactions has passed, and it has returned to the low-level performance-driven sector.
Analysis of investment opportunities:
Apple MR will be released soon, and the industry chain stocks are expected to benefit
According to media reports, Apple is expected to release its first MR head-mounted display device at the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) in June. It is expected that the new MR product will be mass-produced in September and delivered to users as soon as autumn.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out that the first Apple MR will be released soon, and the second-generation affordable version of Apple MR is expected to be released by the end of 2024. Performance iterations and price declines are expected to drive shipments to a new level, and the core targets of the Apple MR industry chain are expected to fully benefit. In addition, Apple, as the vane of global consumer electronics innovation, the release of MR is expected to refresh the public’s perception of VR products, superimposed Meta, Pico, Sony and other VR brands continue to upgrade the hardware ecological end, the VR market is expected to accelerate development, the domestic industry chain related Target will also benefit. Core targets of the Apple MR industry chain: Luxshare Precision (whole machine OEM), Changying Precision (structural parts), Zhaowei Electromechanical (IPD adjustment module), Cowell Electronics (camera module), Lingyi Zhizao (functional parts/structural parts), Huaxing Yuanchuang (Micro-OLED testing equipment), etc.
Nvidia GPU continues to be out of stock and price rises, focus on domestic alternatives
According to news from Jiwei.com, an agent revealed that the price of Nvidia A100 began to rise in December last year. As of the first half of April this year, its cumulative price increase in five months reached 37.5%; the cumulative price increase of A800 reached 20.0% during the same period. At the same time, the delivery cycle of Nvidia GPU has also been lengthened. The delivery cycle was about one month before, but now it basically takes three months or longer. Even, some new orders “may not be delivered until December.”
Caitong Securities pointed out that in recent years, domestic GPU manufacturers have launched relatively mature products in the fields of graphics rendering GPU and high-performance computing GPGPU, constantly catching up with the industry’s mainstream products in terms of performance, and reaching the industry’s first-class level in specific fields. In terms of ecology, most domestic manufacturers are compatible with Nvidia CUDA, integrating into the big ecology and realizing the continuous import of clients. In the context of the limited import of high-end GPU chips, domestic GPU manufacturers are expected to take advantage of the policy and seize the opportunity of domestic substitution to grow rapidly.
Energy storage welcomes policy support again
Recently, the General Department of the National Energy Administration issued the “Notice on Further Improving Matters Concerning the Planning and Construction of Pumped Storage Energy”, proposing that we should promptly carry out demonstrations of the development needs of pumped storage energy, focusing on the “14th Five-Year Plan” and coordinating the “15th Five-Year Plan” Start the project. At the same time, it is necessary to do a good job in the orderly implementation of new projects, and vigorously improve the supporting capacity of the industrial chain.
Industry insiders said that in the process of transitioning to a new power system, the importance of energy storage has gradually emerged, and relevant parties are actively promoting the investment and construction of pumped storage and other energy storage projects. In the next few years, the pumped storage market has a bright future.
Cinda Securities pointed out that large-scale storage has rigid demand in the current power system. In 2022, the new installed capacity of large-scale storage will grow rapidly. Due to the combination of European energy transition and geopolitical emergencies, the demand for household storage has exceeded expectations. It is expected that in 2023, the new installed capacity of energy storage in my country and the world will still maintain a double-fold growth, and the high prosperity of the sector is expected to continue. It is recommended to pay attention to the industrial chain targets that are expected to benefit from the high demand for energy storage.
Other market-impacting news：
MSCI Quarterly Adjusted Results Announcement
MSCI recently announced the results of the May 2023 quarterly adjustment review of the global index series. The MSCI China Index has newly included 51 A-shares this time, including 42 from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and 9 from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. According to the estimation of free market capitalization, it is estimated that after the adjustment, the weight of constituent stocks in Shanghai stock market will be about 61%, and the weight of constituent stocks in Shenzhen stock market will be about 39%.
State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission promotes central enterprises to vigorously develop strategic emerging industries
On May 13, Zhang Yuzhuo, Secretary and Director of the Party Committee of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, visited the central enterprises in Shanghai to investigate, emphasizing adherence to high-level technological self-reliance, vigorously developing the real economy, and strengthening strategic emerging industries. It is reported that the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission will further strengthen the top-level design, optimize policies and measures such as assessment, investment and financing, selection of personnel, and model innovation, and make a “combined fist” to guide and promote central enterprises to vigorously develop strategic emerging industries and accelerate the deployment of new areas of value creation. Create a new track and create a modern industrial cluster led by innovation.
A number of banks adjusted the agreement and notice deposit interest rates
A few days ago, Guilin Bank, Ping An Bank and other financial institutions announced that they will adjust the interest rates of call deposits and agreement deposit products from May 15. It is reported that the interest rate adjustment is due to the fact that the bank received a notice from the regulatory authority to control the upper limit of the interest rate of call deposits and agreement deposits. Among them, the upper limit of point addition for large state-owned banks cannot exceed 10 basis points, and other financial institutions cannot exceed 20 basis points.
Industry insiders analyzed that the above-mentioned two types of deposit products were included in the self-regulatory upper limit adjustment this time, which is intended to regulate the disorderly competition in deposit pricing, further ease the pressure on commercial banks’ interest margins, and control the cost of bank liabilities. The agency said that the decline in the risk-free central interest rate brought about by the decline in deposit rates has increased the allocation value of the high dividend sector. The current dividend rate of the banking sector in 2023 is 5.68%, and it will continue to pay attention to the future value increase of the banking sector.
This week ushers in an important window for interest rate cuts
According to reports, relevant departments have notified banks to lower the self-regulatory upper limit of interest rates on agreed deposits and call deposits. CITIC Securities believes that this will help ease the pressure on bank interest margins. May 15th is the time for MLF operation, which is the window period for the central bank to push down the policy interest rate. The economic data in April showed that the economic situation was divided between hot and cold. Since May, the data on both ends of the supply and demand have continued to diverge. Therefore, if you pay attention to the weak economic fundamentals, the policy may consider continuing to strengthen the support for the real economy and adopt the operation of cutting interest rates . However, Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, publicly stated in March that the current level of actual interest rates is more appropriate, and if the MLF interest rate is lowered, there is a high probability that the LPR interest rate and loan interest rate will also be lowered, and the interest rate spread of banks will narrow again. bring pressure. Therefore, the current market expectations for interest rate cuts are clearly differentiated, and changes in MLF will have a significant impact on the market.
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