According to the Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, researcher Yao Hui), the latest strategic views of the top ten securities firms have been released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: Incremental capital relay blue chip market continues
The central government’s policy setting for stable growth and future policy synergy will promote economic recovery beyond expectations. Intensive policy implementation and data disclosure will significantly boost market confidence. Abundant market liquidity supports incremental capital relay, and institutional funds dominate the New Year’s Blue Chip The market is expected to continue for several months. First of all, the central economic work conference’s policy set clearly and stabilised growth in order to cope with the “triple pressure” superimposition of economic operations; structural policies will be rebalanced, focusing more on the coordination of short-term pressures and medium-term goals; at the same time, policies will put more emphasis on implementation and future policies Heli is expected to promote economic recovery beyond expectations. Secondly, the gradually disclosed economic data shows that the economic growth in the fourth quarter is more resilient. At the same time, policies have eased real estate anxiety, monetary policy has been intensively implemented, subsequent credit repairs will continue for several quarters, and market risk appetite will continue to increase. Finally, the macro liquidity is still abundant, the market liquidity is extremely abundant, the relative attractiveness of renminbi assets is still very strong, the northbound funds will maintain the trend of continuous net inflows, and the re-allocation of domestic institutions and multi-year wealth management funds will form an incremental capital relay. Drive stock funds to adjust positions, and the market consensus on low-level blue chips will be further strengthened.
Structurally, high-low switching will continue, and it is recommended to resolutely focus on the “three lows” layout. Focus on: 1) Products with low fundamental expectations, pay attention to midstream manufacturing that was suppressed by cost and supply chain issues in the early stage, such as small household appliances, auto parts, power equipment, etc., and gradually increase the proportion of consumption whose valuation returns to a reasonable range And the pharmaceutical industry, such as liquor, food, tax exemption, medical equipment, vaccines, etc.; 2) Products whose valuations are still relatively low, pay attention to high-quality developers and building materials companies after the mitigation of real estate credit risk expectations, and experience the impact of Chinese concept stocks After the Hong Kong stock market Internet leader; 3) After adjustment, the stock price is relatively low, such as semiconductor equipment, special chip devices and military industries promoted by localized logic.
Huaan Securities: Positive policy signals confirm full participation in the New Year’s Eve market
The loose tone on the policy side has been gradually confirmed and further opened up room for improvement. Since Monday’s expected long-term RRR cut was expected to land, to the meeting of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, and then to the Central Economic Work Conference, it was mentioned that China’s economy is facing triple pressure and policy efforts are appropriately advanced. It can be seen that in the past week, the overall policy tone has been gradually increasing. In particular, the overall tone of the Central Economic Work Conference has exceeded expectations. The bottom of the economy has been basically confirmed, and the market will perform more positively in the future.
Therefore, for the follow-up configuration, we believe that while always prompting the active layout to participate in the New Year’s Eve market and emphasizing the opportunities for the growth sector, we can shift to a more positive thinking, tilting from a structural to a comprehensive configuration. First, in terms of growth, in the medium term, we will continue to adhere to the new energy vehicle, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen, energy storage and semiconductor industry chain, and further tap the supply and demand gaps and profit improvement links in the industry chain, such as the profit improvement of photovoltaic mid- and downstream modules; The second is the infrastructure chain, the increase in the allocation of building materials that benefited from the advancement of policies; the third is the consumption direction, structural opportunities focus on the recovery of the industry and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery that benefit from rising prices; the fourth is the financial direction, except for the transaction volume In addition to the securities companies affected by the full registration system, the policy of increasing allocations eases the real estate that has been superimposed on valuation repairs, and banks that have correspondingly improved asset quality. In terms of themes, focus on themed investment opportunities of military industry + digital currency + basic industrial chain substitution.
CICC: The main line of market transactions shifts to “steady growth”
The most core change in the market this week is the strengthening of expectations for stable growth of policies, and market performance continues to evolve around this main line. The Central Economic Work Conference continued the spirit of the previous Politburo meeting, emphasizing that we should continue to do a good job in the “six stability” and “six guarantees”. Next year’s economic work should take the lead and seek progress while maintaining stability. Looking forward, we believe that we still need to continue to pay attention to the “reversal” of the global economic cycle and the new changes in the epidemic. China’s capital market is currently in a more favorable environment compared to the world. With the strengthening of “stabilized growth” expectations, we will pay attention to the progress of future policy counter-cyclical adjustments. . In terms of style, we believe that the main line of “stabilized growth” will continue with the possible implementation of social financing credit and fiscal planning and deployment. Some manufacturing growth styles that have been relatively strong year-to-date may temporarily lag behind, and the market style may temporarily present a pattern of “big strong and small weak”.
The allocation continues to tilt toward policy expectations and the mid- and downstream directions, focusing specifically on three directions: 1) The marginal changes in policies or the development of potential support areas, including the industry chain related to the stable demand of real estate (home appliances, home furnishings, building materials, real estate, etc.), potential Possible consumer support areas, securities firms, etc.; 2) Mid- and downstream consumption that has been adjusted this year, the valuation is not high, and the mid-to-long-term prospects are still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including food and beverage, medicine, home appliances, light industry Home furnishings, automobiles and parts, the Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries, etc.; 3) The manufacturing direction that may be depressed in the short-term and pays attention to the high-prosperity in the medium-term, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardware semiconductors, according to the changes in the prosperity of the industrial chain. As for the allocation of shares, special attention is paid to the manufacturing opportunities in the links of transmission and distribution upgrades and auto parts.
Guotai Junan: Reduced economic uncertainty boosts New Year’s Eve market
Looking forward to the market outlook, economic uncertainty will be reduced, and the resulting downward risk evaluation and rising risk appetite will become the core drivers. On the one hand, the 2021 economic work conference pointed out that the current economy is facing three pressures of shrinking demand, supply shocks, and weakening expectations. Stable growth has become the primary goal of economic work. With the strengthening of fiscal policy expenditures, the advancement of the pace, the stable and broad monetary policy, and the superimposed structural industrial policy endogenous force, the pessimistic expectation of the economic downturn is expected to alleviate. On the other hand, the emphasis on “correct understanding” of a series of important issues such as dual control of energy consumption and carbon neutrality, the positive role of capital and barbaric growth has effectively reduced the uncertainty of market concerns from the perspective of policy correction. Based on the above, we believe that with the gradual clarity of the core contradictions, the downward profit forecast is gradually repaired, and the denominator end is used to promote the new year’s market to a higher level.
With the convening of important meetings, the core marginal policy of the policy is aimed at stabilizing the economy. In accordance with the order of steady growth and the revision of pessimistic expectations, recommendations: 1) Consumption: Accelerate to the bottom of expectations, and recommended performance is supportive and negative Diluted liquor, pigs, home appliances, furniture, and social service/tourism are expected; 2) Finance: securities firms, banks; 3) Technology manufacturing: consumer electronics and semiconductors; 4) New energy: photovoltaics, new energy vehicles and other high-prosperity directions .
West China Securities: policy tone seeks “stability” A-share market continues in the new year
“Stability” is the key word of the Central Economic Work Conference. In the context of the raging global epidemic and multiple pressures on the domestic economy, all parties must actively introduce policies that are conducive to economic stability, and the policy should be appropriately advanced, smooth the economic fluctuations before the 20th CPC National Congress, and keep the economy operating within a reasonable range. In the current vacuum period of corporate earnings data, “loose liquidity + stable growth policy force” has become the driving force for A-shares to interpret the “New Year’s Eve”. Subsequent counter-cyclical and inter-cyclical policies will force the economy to underpin the economy, while market risk appetite is expected to rise. Maintain our long-standing optimistic view of A-shares, and the structural market for A-shares continues. In terms of December alone, the A-share market is expected to continue the new year’s market, and the sectors/stocks will not chase the highs or kill the declines.
In terms of industry configuration, there are three main lines of investment: 1) new energy (vehicles) (smart grid, energy storage, wind energy, photovoltaics, etc.); 2) consumption upgrade-related, food and beverage, medicine, etc.; 3) benefiting from “city-specific policies” In the “real estate” sector with marginal changes in real estate policy, individual stocks focus on central enterprises that have increased their market share. Thematic investment concerns: “Dual Carbon, Military Industry, Consumption Upgrade”, etc.
Industrial Securities: New Year’s Eve Quotes Launch Economic Work Conference Boosts Four Main Lines
The New Year’s Eve market has begun. At the same time as the currency is widened, the expectation of the phased marginal “wide credit” is rising, which continues to promote the large and small resonant index market.
The economic work conference has boosted the four main lines of the New Year’s Eve market: 1) Pay attention to the broker, which is an important carrier for the interpretation of the New Year’s Eve market. The meeting put forward the “full implementation of the registration system for stock issuance”, referring to the normalization of IPOs in recent years, which is expected to support the long-term performance of securities firms. 2) New and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors that benefit from stable growth expectations and at the same time repaired at low valuations. 3) Dual-carbon related new energy and coal sectors. 4) Science and technology innovation growth segment represented by “small high-tech”.
The New Year’s Eve market continues to be interpreted, seizing the four main lines to actively participate. In the long term, focus on the five major directions of technological innovation. 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation of information and communication technologies (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, robots, etc.) Advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical equipment and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space stations, space shuttles, etc.).
China National Finance Securities: first decline and then rise, the market enters the second half
The downward pressure on the domestic economy is becoming increasingly apparent, and the economy is in the bottom-finding stage in the next six months. The economy is likely to bottom out in the middle of next year. The decline in performance has become the consensus expectation of the market and will not become the core factor leading the market. Policy is the core driving factor for A-shares in the next stage. Monetary and credit policies will reopen the marginal easing window, which does not rule out the central bank’s subsequent reduction of MLF interest rates. From the failure of market RRR expectations after the central bank’s press conference in October, to the reverie that the central bank’s monetary policy implementation report in the third quarter of November did not mention the liquidity gate, to the high-level re-recommendation of “timely RRR reduction”, and then a comprehensive reduction of the RRR by 0.5. Percentage points, a new window for marginal easing of policy to boost the economy has been opened, and subsequent reductions in the MLF interest rate cannot be ruled out to lead to a decline in the LPR interest rate.
Focusing on the market layout at the end of the year and the beginning of the year, focusing on the return of the main line of the new energy sector, focusing on opportunities for oversold rebounds in medicine and consumption, and short-term and fast opportunities for securities firms. Brokers may be the first to respond in the market at the end of the year, and the main line of the market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is still the long-term logic that is difficult to falsify, and there is no negative new energy sector for short-term performance. In addition, there may be opportunities for oversold rebounds in consumption and medicine at the end of the year. At the same time, there may be short-term and fast-paced opportunities for brokers. Continue to focus on sub-sectors in the midstream capital goods sector that benefit from domestic and overseas capital expenditures, such as smart manufacturing and parts. At the same time, the segmented industrial chain benefiting from new energy in the basic chemical industry is also worthy of attention.
Shanxi Securities: Policy releases loose signals, northbound funds “run into the market”
The current liquidity in the A-share market is relatively loose. This week’s targeted interest rate cut policy also verified what we mentioned in the previous issue. After the targeted RRR cut, there is a high probability that structural monetary policies will be linked to ensure “steady growth” of the economy. This year’s Central Economic Work Conference was held earlier, and the meeting released a clear signal of easing. The CPI data structure reflects the suspension of upward pressure on prices, providing space for follow-up policy follow-up and cross-cyclical steady growth adjustment. We believe that a new round of easing cycle is about to start, the new year’s market will be advanced, and liquidity and market sentiment will be better. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the opportunities of the high-prosperity growth track with policy support. At the same time, the market style may gradually switch to low Valuation of blue-chip targets, it is recommended to pay attention to segmented track profit expectations and valuation changes to actively adjust positions.
In terms of industry, (1) Food and beverages still have better opportunities under the gradual fulfillment of loose expectations. The high-level meeting mentioned that “expansion of domestic demand” is expected to accelerate the recovery of domestic consumption, guide the demand side to strengthen, and superimpose the peak consumption season at the end of the year, and the profit space of the food and beverage segment with a reasonable valuation range is expected to be restored. In addition, my country’s economy has shown better resilience in the face of multiple rounds of epidemics for a long time, and foreign capital’s preference for my country’s domestic market has increased significantly. Liquor and other sectors are more favored by foreign capital. Overlapping the main funds to adjust positions at the end of the year, it is recommended to focus on liquor under consumption upgrades. The sector’s leading label and basically target the good dairy and mass consumer sectors. (2) The policy thinking of the real estate sector is clear. Under the strategy of “common prosperity”, controlling housing price fluctuations within a reasonable range and promoting the construction of affordable housing is an important goal. On the one hand, it avoids “overcorrection” aggravating the pessimistic expectations and systemic nature of the real estate market Risks, on the other hand, solve key livelihood issues and stabilize real estate investment by accelerating the construction of affordable housing in key cities. As a result, the leading real estate central enterprises that are basically exhausted are expected to repair their valuations, and the sub-fields such as housing leasing and property services will also enter the stage of standardized development. It is recommended to pay attention to related sub-sectors with better management and strong competitiveness. Quality subject. (3) Under the idea of ”stabilizing the macroeconomic market”, “relief of the development of small and medium-sized enterprises” has attracted more and more attention, and the follow-up policy of guaranteeing funds to reach the real economy is gradually exerting force, which may drive financial institutions’ capital cost pressure to continue to decline and profit restoration. At the same time, the transition period of the new asset management regulations is coming to an end, and the liquidity of the equity market is expected to further improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the financial sector.
Cinda Securities: The tone of steady growth will allow the index to break through again
The tone of the Central Economic Work Conference is very optimistic. Since 2014 and 2018, it has once again emphasized “focusing on economic construction”, and “stability” has become the most important key word. Analogous to 2015 and 2019, one year after steady growth, The stock market has ample liquidity, but earnings will continue to decline for a long time. We judge that the keynote of steady growth this time will allow the index to break through again. As policies, funds, and sentiment are better, the probability of a breakthrough this time is even greater. If you can see that residents’ funds and credit exceed expectations in January, the New Year’s Eve market can last until March. After the New Year’s Eve market, it is appropriately turned into defense, stable growth can raise the valuation within the quarter, but it will take a long time to change the profit trend.
Configuration recommendations: (1) The supply and demand cycles of military industry, hotel, aviation and other industries are independent, and they can be watched throughout the year in 2022. (2) Financial real estate is generally able to advance and retreat in the middle and late stages of the economic downturn. The steady growth will gradually increase in the next six months and can be over-provisioned for six months; (3) Computers, media, food and beverages, home appliances, etc. have performed poorly this year The sector is in the process of quarterly rebound.
Bank of China Securities: Steady word as a breakthrough in technology
In addition to setting the economic tone for the coming year, the Central Economic Work Conference also has an important guiding role in the direction of stock market investment. From the perspective of the economic tone, a stable position next year is in line with the positioning of loose policies in the late period of the short-term recession.
It may have an impact on the pace of market industry allocation, but the upgrading of technology and manufacturing has made the dual-carbon main line more clear. On the whole, the development of traditional industries is expected to fall to a stable level, which is conducive to valuation and sentiment restoration, but the general policy tone is still not strong stimulus, so the characteristics of insufficient long-term profitability in related industries still exist. What is clear is the focus of the high-quality economic development goals, including the upgrading of the manufacturing industry represented by “specialized, special new” enterprises; the three-year action plan for the reform of the scientific and technological system, and the ten-year plan for basic research as the focus Escorted by the basic science and technology system; the leading industries represented by the reorganization of the dual-carbon policy are accelerating the development.