More than two months since coup in Nigerthe tug of war continues between the coup plotters led by General Abdourahamane Tiani, and the countries demanding the restoration of constitutional order and the release of Mohamed Bazoumthe democratically elected president in March 2021. While there is no glimmer of negotiation, there is still high risk of armed conflict which could involve several West African states, with far-reaching destabilizing effects.
Il anti-coup front is broad – includes the EU, the US and the Economic Community of West African States (Economic Community of West African States, Ecowas) – but uncertain e divided inside on the strategy to put the council of Tiani on the rope. France, which has about 1,400 troops in Niger, has so far maintained the firmer position. The French ambassador is still in his place despite the fact that ten days ago he was ordered to leave the country within 48 hours. In a recent speech to the French ambassadors, the president Emmanuel Macron has proudly relaunched this gauntlet to the coup junta.
Accusations against France
However, there are various charges against the policy of France and the Western countries in West Africa, but essentially two: that they have not enabled local governments to regain control over their territories against secessionist forces and jihadist insurgency, despite financial assistance and repeated military operations; and to have supported corrupt and unpopular local leaders. The military that toppled civilian governments in Mali (August 2020) and Burkina Faso (January 2022) tapped into this widespread discontent.
The whys of the coup
To justify the coup, the Nigerien junta accused the civilian government of Bazoum of being responsible for a “continuous deterioration of the security situation” and of bad governance. However, Bazoum’s executive had achieved, by unanimous recognition, significant successes in the anti-jihadist struggle, unlike the overthrown civilian governments in Mali and Burkina Faso.
The question of bad governance is more complex. In 2020 Macron lauded Niger as an “example for democracy”. Even under the government of Bazoum and his predecessor Mahanadou Issofou, however, corruption and nepotism were widespread. The overwhelming power and abuses of the ruling party – the Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism – had aroused a strong popular resentmentgenerating distrust in the democratic system.
According to polls, a substantial portion of the Nigerien population thinks that the military can restore order and, in general, improve the situation of the country, and wish for a severing of ties with Western countries, especially France.
The issue of bad governance has though little to do with the real motivations of the coup. The goal of Tiani and the military elite who supported him is above all to defend their privileges. As head of the presidential guard, Tiani had amassed a fortune, which he distributed to his cronies. This power base was threatened by Bazoum’s attempt to reduce the funds available to him and gain more transparency on their use.
French troops in the crosshairs
The question of the French troops stationed in Niger is one of the most burning ones. At the beginning of August the military junta he denounced the military cooperation agreements signed with the French government between 1977 and 2020, demanding the closure of French bases by early September. Paris has so far moved only a limited number of personnel and equipment to neighboring Chad, where it has around 1,500 men. A total withdrawal would be logistically very demanding, not compatible with the rapid times that the Nigerien junta would like to impose.
For now, however, the French government holds firm, and is not willing to close the bases. French soldiers have already been forced to leave Mali (August 2022) and Burkina Faso (February 2023) following military coups. There presence in Niger is now of even more crucial strategic importance for France for projection in the Sahel area.
Risks for the military junta
Paris maintains this line of firmness also because it counts on a weakening of the Nigerien coup plotters. Certain factors may actually put them in increasing difficulty. Since they seized power we are witnessing a worsening security conditions. Attacks by jihadist militias are on the rise.
Then there are divisions within the army that could progressively come to light. The junta has already implemented some purges in the high commands. But the hold of the coup government is at risk above all as a result of the Western sanctions and persistent international isolationwhich have already severely eroded the military government’s ability to provide essential services to the population.
The military option and the diplomatic one
Macron reiterated that France is at the side of Ecowas and will support its diplomatic and military actions. In the event of an armed intervention by Ecowas, however, it is not clear whether the support would be political or even financial and logistical. Ecowas had set a ultimatum on August 6th for the release and resettlement of Bazoum to power, otherwise threatening military intervention, in which six countries (Benin, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria and Senegal) had declared their readiness to participate. The military in power in Burkina Faso and Mali have instead announced that they will consider any intervention in Niger a declaration of war against their countries.
When the ultimatum expired, Ecowas did not follow up on the threat to intervene. Up to now the fear of getting caught up in a conflict with unforeseeable effects has prevailed in the Ecowas countries, should the coup junta resist, while the jihadist threat remains more imminent than ever. A civilian government reinstated thanks to a military intervention would then risk being seen, even more so, as a puppet of foreign powers.
The military option remains on the table, but skepticism about the possibility of realizing it is growing. The US, which has 1,100 soldiers in Niger in an anti-jihadist function, has expressed a clear preference for the diplomatic route. The White House has moved with great caution. President Joe Biden has even avoided calling the seizure of power a coup by the military. So far Washington has received no requests to withdraw troops from the country. Many EU countries, including Germany and Italy, also have invited to be cautious, expressing fears about the risks that a military intervention could entail. Even the financial support for possible actions by Ecowas raises doubts and perplexities in the Union.
On the other hand, all the attempts made so far to open a dialogue with the Nigerien junta, while continuing to deny it the international recognition it aspires to, have failed.
The scope for action of the countries, particularly the Western ones, interested in putting an end to what Macron has called the “epidemic of putschs” and in restoring civilian government in Niger appears very limited also due to the growing hostility of the local population and the other challenges they face in the Sahel. The fear of a prolonged conflict on a regional scale induces to favor the negotiation route. However, the junta in power in Niamey could find it increasingly difficult to keep the country under control. They could come from it new destabilizing dynamics which would further call into question the responsibility of international actors.
Cover photo EPA/ISSIFOU DJIBO