In the middle of the night, big things happen frequently!
Photovoltaic giantLongi sharesThe official website adjusted the official quotation of monocrystalline silicon wafers on November 30.The price of silicon wafers of various sizes dropped by 0.41 yuan/piece to 0.67 yuan/piece, a decrease of 7.2% to 9.8%. When this happened, the industry was in an uproar. Some investors believe that the price war for silicon wafers has officially started, which is the result of the crazy expansion of silicon wafers. The price reduction of silicon wafers has just begun. With the increase in silicon material production next year, more and more silicon wafer factories will expand their production scale, and giants such as Longi are facing challenges.With the start of the price war, the silicon wafer track next yearPerformanceMay face major changes.
E-cigarettes also face major variables.This track has performed well recently, but on Tuesday the sector slumped across the board. On Tuesday evening, the “Consultation on the National Standard for Compulsory Electronic Cigarettes” was officially released on the National Standards Planning Platform, entering the stage of public comment solicitation. According to this opinion, synthetic nicotine will lose the market, and the attributes of e-cigarettes are completely labeled as containing tobacco ingredients, that is, the regulatory authority is completely owned by the Tobacco Bureau, and there will be no separate regulatory authority.
At the same time, the external market has also ushered in major changes.In the afternoon of the 30th, the external market will suddenly dive across the board. The European market opened bleak, while the US stock Dow Jones futures fell nearly 400 points before the market. But then, the global market stabilized slightly. From the perspective of the reasons for the diving, Stephane Bancel, CEO of vaccine giant MODERNA with a market value of nearly one trillion yuan, told the Financial Times that he expects the vaccine‘s effect on the new strain of Omicron will be reduced. This statement once again caused global concern.
It’s also good at night, when the market suddenly spreadWuliangyeIncrease the ex-factory price.This will have a certain stimulus effect on consumption. Next,Kweichow MoutaiWill there be actions too?
Two major tracks suddenly have major changes
On Tuesday night, there were two major circuits that sparked heated discussions in the market, namely solar wafers and e-cigarettes.
First of all,Longi sharesThe official website adjusted the official quotation of monocrystalline silicon wafers on November 30.The price of silicon wafers of various sizes dropped by 0.41 yuan/piece to 0.67 yuan/piece, a decrease of 7.2% to 9.8%. Some investors believe that the price war has just started, and the profitability of the entire industry next year may face greater variability.Before that, there were also well-knownAnalystSaid that the logic of the photovoltaic industry is getting more and more chaotic. So, what changes will this price cut bring?
Guojin SecuritiesSaid that the official price reduction of LONGi silicon wafers is basically in line with expectations as a whole. The actual transaction prices of silicon wafers in the first two weeks have dropped significantly, and the official price has been lagging behind to update.Regarding the understanding of price changes in the industry chain at the current point in time and possible subsequent deductions, the negative demand-price feedback will happen sooner or later, and it should start with silicon wafers. Considering that after this price adjustment, under the current 26w-27w silicon material price, the marginal capacity of silicon wafers may be close to the break-even point. It is expected that silicon material companies will also “carry forward style” in the near future. According to the price adjustment of LONGi’s silicon wafers, the corresponding component cost has dropped by 7-8 cents/W. It is expected that a large number of projects will enter the “installable” cost range, effectively stimulating the demand for rush installation at the end of the year, and the annual domestic/global installed capacity will reach 50- The 60/160 GW certainty is improved, and the marginal benefit is the realization of the annual revenue/profit of the inverter and power station EPC business.
The other track facing variables is e-cigarettes.According to media reports, on November 30, the “Consultation on the National Standard for Compulsory Electronic Cigarettes” was officially released on the National Standards Planning Platform, entering the stage of public comment solicitation. According to the “Opinions”, the concentration of nicotine (nicotine) in e-cigarettes should not be higher than 20mg/g, the total amount of nicotine should not be higher than 200mg, the maximum atomization temperature should not exceed 350°C, and the provision of atomization additives is permitted. 122 kinds of substances are used, and the maximum addition amount is limited. Some professionals believe that based on the above opinions, synthetic nicotine will lose the market, and the attributes of e-cigarettes are completely labeled as containing tobacco ingredients, that is, the regulatory authority is completely owned by the Tobacco Bureau, and no separate department will be established for supervision. In the future, the fewer additives, the easier it is to be accepted, and the taste of e-cigarette products is limited. Injecting e-cigarettes may be over, and the future will be a closed e-cigarette market.
Zheshang SecuritiesIt is believed that the regulatory thinking in the draft opinion is basically in line with previous expectations, and the industry is expected to develop in a healthy and orderly manner under supervision. In essence, the harm reduction properties of e-cigarettes are still the foundation of the industry’s long-term expansion. As long as they develop under the regulations, there must be room for them, and the market share of leading brands with standardized operations will increase steadily during the development of the industry.
Modena CEO frightens the world
The global market is also facing major changes.Although health authorities have stated that it will take several weeks to fully understand how Omicron’s more than 30 mutations affect its response to existing vaccines, Moderna’s chief executive Stephane Bancel told the Financial Times on Monday that he expected Vaccines will be less effective against new strains, and it may take months to develop and deliver vaccines specifically for Omicron variants.
Affected by this, the Asia-Pacific stock market plunged in the afternoon. South Korea’s Kospi Index closed down 2.4%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.6%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index also fell 1.6%.
European stock markets fell in early trading on Tuesday, almost erasing Monday’s gains after the market tried to rebound after a sharp global sell-off on Friday. By early afternoon, the pan-European Stoxx 600 index had fallen 1%. In late Beijing time, European stock markets rebounded slightly.
The U.S. stock market was frightened for a while. Dow Jones index futures fell more than 400 points in pre-market trading, and the three major index futures fell across the board. At 4:30 am Eastern Time, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield fell 8 basis points to 1.4443%, while the 30-year US Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 1.8281%.Around ten o’clock in the evening Beijing time on Tuesday, the worldOil priceShort-term rapid decline, U.S. oil next year’s January contract and Bursa oil next year’s February contract fell more than 4%; domestic crude oil futuresMain forceThe contract fell more than 5%.
JFDBankResearch director Charalambos Pissouros said that the trend so far this week proves how sensitive market participants are to Omicron’s headlines. Any new negative headline is very likely to lead to another round of large-scale selling. Volatility may be significant in the coming weeks, but investors are urged to stay the course and continue to focus on the long-term fundamentals unchanged.
WuliangyeSudden price increase
On Tuesday night, there is another heavyweight worthy of attention. According to the 21st Century Business Herald, learned from various sources,WuliangyeThe dealer will sign a new sign next yearcontractThe price has changed. The unplanned price of the 52-degree eighth generation Wuliangye has been increased from 999 yuan/bottle to 1,089 yuan/bottle, the planned price is 889 yuan/the same, and the contract volume inside and outside the plan is 3:2. Based on calculations, the ex-factory price of the eighth-generation Wuliangye has increased from 889 yuan to 969 yuan, an increase of nearly 9%, which is consistent with the ex-factory price of the 53% 500ml Feitian Moutai. Some dealers said that the new price increase policy is expected to be officially announced at the Wuliangye dealer meeting on December 18 this year.
According to the research data of Xinhua Finance and Economics, during the period of Wang Guochun (1985-2007), Wuliangye insisted on raising prices. From 1989 to 1994, Wuliangye raised prices several times, and product prices exceededLuzhou LaojiaoFenjiu, Fenjiu and Moutai have become the most expensive liquors in China’s liquor industry, laying the foundation for consumers’ recognition of Wuliangye’s high-end brands; active expansion will provide guarantees for Wuliangye’s subsequent share in the high-end liquor market. The price increase and production expansion jointly laid the foundation for Wuliangye to dominate the high-end liquor market for a while, but the buyout business model it promotes also laid hidden dangers for future development. In 2008, the ex-factory price of Puwu was overtaken by Moutai. In 2012, Wuliangye’s revenue wasKweichow MoutaiOvertaking, and at the same time, the price strategy suffered a major blow. With the influence of factors such as the existing brand confusion and sluggish demand, Wuliangye entered a period of in-depth adjustment. In 2015, the liquor recovery cycle began. In 2017, Wuliangye entered the Li Shuguang era. In the same year, Wuliangye’s second venture began. A series of reforms involving products, brands, channels, management, and incentives were implemented successively. Wuliangye was once again revitalized and entered into development. Fast lane.
Historically, Wuliangye’s price increase strategy has not always been successful. The price increase has not yet received an official response, but it is difficult to say if it is implemented. At present, the price of Moutai has not been raised, and the difficulty of raising it is relatively high. From the perspective of retail prices in the market, Sanfei’s prices have continued to decline recently. Due to the economy and the epidemic, the current consumption situation is not good. Whether Wuliangye can use price increases to break the embarrassment of the third quarterly report still needs further observation.
(Article Source:BrokerageChina)
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