Italy risks stagflation. The alarm was raised by the Studies Office of the CGIA of Mestre. According to the association, “the risk is not immediate, but the danger that our economy is slowly sliding towards this perfect storm is very high”. Stagflation, recalls the CGIA, “rarely occurs, or rather when economic stagnation is accompanied by very high inflation which raises the unemployment rate. An economic situation – underline the craftsmen of Mestre – which could also occur in Italy, as it already happened in the second half of the 70s of the last century. Not in 2022, even if the trend seems to be marked: the difficulties linked to the post-pandemic, the effects of the war in Ukraine, the economic sanctions against Russia, the increase in the prices of raw materials and energy products risk, in the medium term , to push the economy towards zero growth, with inflation that would start to touch the double digits. A scenario that could make even the 235 billion euros of investments foreseen in the coming years by the NRP almost ineffective ».
According to the CGIA, it is necessary to intervene simultaneously on at least two fronts: “Firstly, through the drastic reduction of current expenditure and, secondly, with the cut in the tax burden, the only effective tools capable of stimulating consumption and for this food route also the aggregate demand for goods and services. These latter operations are not easy to apply to an important extent, at least until the European Stability Pact is “reviewed” ».
The CGIA asks to pay attention also to the “price-wage” spiral. Out of 992 employment contracts deposited in the National Archives of CNEL public and private contracts, 622 had expired as of 31 December last (62.7 per cent). The association reports that only in the second half of 2021, the employers’ associations together with the trade unions have renewed 363. With inflation that this year will touch 4 percent, the CGIA continues, «we must absolutely avoid feeding the “price-wage” spiral which, towards the end of the 1970s, helped to push the cost of living to a level higher than 20 per cent. As is already being done in part, with the renewal of national contracts, second-level bargaining (territorial or corporate) needs to be further developed, particularly by strengthening the use of corporate welfare1. An institution, the latter, which can play an important role in calming the cost of living and at the same time gratifying, at lower costs than those offered by the market, the needs for goods and services of workers and / or their families”.
After 16 days from the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the prices of the main raw materials have shot up, causing many problems for many companies, many of which were already weakened by the effects of the pandemic that had contributed to enormously decrease the offer of a good part of these materials. This was reported by the Studies Office of the CGIA of Mestre. According to the association, of the dozen items monitored, the one that suffered the most important price change between 23 February and yesterday was nickel (+93.8 percent). Followed by gas (+48 per cent), maize (+30.3 per cent), soft wheat (+29.2 per cent), steel (+25.1 per cent) and oil (+16 per cent). , 3 percent). On the other hand, lead (-1.3 per cent) and tin (-2.1 per cent) recorded a negative change.