Financial Associated Press, October 9 (Editor Liu Yue) The increase in crude oil prices during the National Day topped all asset classes. The settlement price of international crude oil futures rose sharply this week, the largest weekly gain since March. The main contract of WTI November crude oil futures rose 16.54% this week.
On the news, the first OPEC+ ministerial meeting held offline after the epidemic was held on October 5. The meeting decided to reduce the OPEC+ production quota for November and December by 2 million barrels per day compared with August, and announced the current round of production cuts. The agreement framework will be valid until the end of December 2023.
It is worth noting that before the National Day, the main WTI crude oil futures contract was at the low level of the year, a correction of nearly 42% from the highest price of $130.50/barrel in March this year to $76.25/barrel.
“OPEC+” is the name given to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) as well as Russia and other related oil-producing countries. In the world‘s proven crude oil reserves, all “OPEC” member countries account for 80.4%, plus 11 “OPEC” partner countries, “OPEC+” member countries accumulatively own about 90% of the world‘s crude oil reserves, which greatly affects The supply of oil, which in turn affects the price of oil.
Sun Xiyu of Guotai Junan Securities believes that behind OPEC+’s insistence on reducing production is the long-term intensification of conflicts between producers and consumers: Saudi Arabia, Iran and Russia have also become tougher on the United States. For the Iran nuclear deal, which the market hopes to increase supply, there is no hope before Russia’s mid-term elections, which is lower than market expectations again.
According to a research report released by Everbright Securities analyst Gao Ruidong on September 28, the US oil production share has risen from 10% in 2010 to 18% in 2021, and its export share has risen from 2.0% in 2000 to 12.5% in 2020. %, and the Middle East’s share of oil exports fell from 43.4% in 2000 to 33.0% in 2020. So far, the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Russia have become the three major suppliers of the international oil market, forming a tripartite pattern. Analysts pointed out that OPEC’s production cut this time is a protest against the proposed price ceiling for Russia’s oil in Europe and the United States.
From the perspective of consumer countries, the Asia-Pacific region occupies an absolute position among OPEC crude oil exporters.
According to a research report released by Huatai Securities analyst Zhang Jiqiang on September 17, my country’s oil production will be 199 million tons in 2021, the scale of future production increases will be limited, and the degree of oil dependence will reach 72%. Everbright Securities Research Report shows that China’s crude oil imports are mainly from the Middle East and Russia.
JPMorgan forecasts that the average price of WTI crude oil will be $101/barrel in 2022 and $94/barrel in 2023; the average price of Brent crude oil will be $104/barrel in 2022 and $98/barrel in 2023. CITIC Construction Investment Securities believes that the supply side has contracted, crude oil supply and demand are expected to continue to be in a tight balance, and the resilience of high oil prices may exceed previous market expectations.
Sun Xiyu pointed out that oil prices fell sharply in the third quarter, but looking forward to the fourth quarter, the supply and demand of crude oil may change: ①The demand for winter is boosted, and the demand for crude oil reaches the annual peak in July-August every year, and falls in September-October, and then in the winter Demand rose again from November to December; ② natural gas prices were high, and the demand for gas-to-oil in Europe increased in the fourth quarter; ③ OPEC cut production on the supply side, and it may be difficult for U.S. crude oil production to increase rapidly in the short term; ④ Russia’s crude oil supply may face great differences Certainty.
Xie Nan of Zhongtai Securities predicts that the sharp decline in crude oil prices in the third quarter is a combination of multiple factors. Compared with the third quarter, without the support of a large number of strategic reserves, the supply and demand pattern in the fourth quarter may show a tight balance. Supply and demand balance The table re-enters the destocking stage, and crude oil prices are expected to rise, or return to the $100-120/barrel range.
A research report released by China Merchants Securities analyst Yu Jiaqi on March 20 pointed out that crude oil prices are mainly determined by supply and demand, and geopolitics indirectly disturbs oil prices by affecting supply and demand. Crude oil price fluctuations directly affect gasoline, diesel and PET (main raw materials), and also indirectly affect the costs of various downstream chemicals and building materials.
Xie Nan suggested to pay attention to “oil”, “service” and “replacement” related companies: PetroChina, CNOOC, Zhongman Oil, COSL, Diwell, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical and other companies. China Securities believes that the resilience of high oil prices is superimposed on the performance period of the three quarterly reports, and it attaches importance to the oil and gas exploration sector and investment opportunities that benefit from the continuation of high oil prices. It focuses on recommending oil and gas exploration and energy sectors, such as CNOOC, Xinchao Energy, and Guanghui Energy; At the same time, we recommend coal chemical sectors that are expected to benefit from the continuation of high oil prices, such as Baofeng Energy, Hualu Hengsheng, and Luxi Chemical.