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(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – Easter break for the stock markets in Europe and the USA, which after the brilliant performance achieved in the first quarter, can take advantage of the holidays to evaluate whether the latest inflation data, which overseas have seen an annual figure growing at 2.5% (as expected) and a monthly slowdown at +0.3% (better than consensus), are consistent with the expectations of a cut in interest rates by central banks, starting from the Fed. In Asia, meanwhile, the Tokyo Stock Exchange ended the session on the rise, following the movement of the American stock markets, which reached new highs thanks to the positive economic indicators. The Nikkei index recorded a gain of 0.5% to 40,369.44 points, thus closing a quarter with a pink jersey on a global level (+21% since the beginning of the year). Gold rises to new highs.
Milan +14.5% since the beginning of the year, second only to Tokyo
The balance sheet of Piazza Affari in the January-March period was second only to that of the Japanese Stock Exchange, with a progress of 14.5%, which brought the index steadily above 34 thousand points to new highs since 2008. After the +1 .3% in January and +6% in February, the price list accelerated further in March, recording an increase of 6.7 percent. Among the other main European stock exchanges, Frankfurt gained 10.5%, Paris 8.8% and Madrid 9.6 percent in the quarter. London remained behind with +2.8 percent.
US inflation rises to 2.5%, Powell cautious on rates
On the macroeconomic front, American inflation for personal consumer purchases (PCE) grew in February by 0.3%, a tenth less than consensus expectations, and by 2.5% on an annual basis, in line with estimates . Core PCE inflation instead rose by 0.3% on the month and 2.8% on the year. This is the Fed’s preferred indicator for evaluating monetary policy adjustments. Strong rebound for consumer spending, which rose by 0.8% in February against the consensus of 0.5%. For the president of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, speaking during the conference on monetary and macroeconomic policy organized by the San Francisco Fed, «it is nice to see something in line with our expectations but to cut rates we need more good data like the ones we have had in the second half of last year.” The US central bank remains cautious, since “the economy is strong and the job market is solid”, Powell underlined. For the president, it is essential to find a balance between the risk of cutting too early, which could lead to a new jump in inflation, and the risk of cutting too late, which could cause unnecessary damage to the economy.
In Italy prices accelerate to 1.3%, inflation drops in France
In Europe, meanwhile, Istat estimates that consumer price growth in Italy slowed down in March to 1.3% per year from 0.8% in the previous month. «The acceleration of the inflation rate is mainly due to the attenuation on a trend basis of the decline in the prices of unregulated (from -17.2% to -10.3%) and regulated (from -18.4%) energy goods to -13.8%) and, to a lesser extent, to the growth of those of transport-related services (from +3.8% to +4.4%)”, notes the statistics institute, specifying that inflation the underlying trend, net of energy and fresh food, accelerates from +2.3% to +2.4%, while that net of energy goods alone decelerates from +2.6% to +2.5%. The acquired inflation for 2024 is equal to +0.6% for the general index and +1.3% for the underlying component.
In France, on the other hand, inflation slowed to 2.3% year-on-year in March after +3% in February. On a monthly basis, inflation recorded an increase of 0.2%, slowing down from +0.9% in February. “This slowdown would be due to the slight drop in energy prices, in particular gas and petroleum products,” the French National Statistics Institute noted in a statement.