Used car prices have soared wildly, increasing inflationary pressures. The US May CPI is absolutely shocking? _ Oriental Fortune Network

Original title: The crazy price of second-hand cars has increased inflationary pressure. The US May CPI is absolutely shocking?

Summary

[ThepriceofusedcarshassoaredwildlyincreasinginflationarypressuresTheUSMayCPIisabsolutelyshocking?】Thisweek’sCPIreportcanfocusontheissueofsoaringusedcarpriceswhichmaymaketheFedconsiderinadvancetoreducethescaleofdebtpurchasesoratleastcontinuetoissuesignalsofgradualreductionofemergencystimulusinthefuturethissummer(GoldenTenData)

This weekAmerican FinanceThe market’s top priority should be the U.S. inflation indicator, which is no less important than non-agricultural indicators at the moment, and the latest in MayCPIThe report will be released this Thursday (June 10).

The well-known financial blog site Zero Hedging pointed out that in the core inflation report to be released this week, there are two sub-data worth focusing on-the increase in used cars and housing rents. Among them, the recent skyrocketing of the former will undoubtedly be particularly noticed.

With the recovery of the US economy and continued tight supply, the price of second-hand cars in the United States has been soaring in recent months. Previously, the biggest driving force behind the US April CPI data entering the “four eras” was the increase in the prices of used cars and trucks. In April, used car prices rose by more than 10% month-on-month and 21% year-on-year, contributing approximately 3%. % 0.8% of the year-on-year increase in core CPI.

Some analysts said that the surge in used car prices was mainly due to the slowdown in new car production due to shutdowns and semiconductor shortages. At the same time, people’s tendency to ride in private cars during the epidemic has also stimulated demand for cars, and the huge amount of fiscal policy and bailout funds in the United States have also added fuel to this market.

According to data from Manheim Consulting, the largest used car auction platform in the United States, used car prices are expected to further climb to a year-on-year increase of 50% in May or June.Northern EuropeUnion BankPoint out:

“If we predict that used cars will grow by 50% year-on-year in May, the core inflation rate may exceed 4%. Supply chain disruptions, semiconductor shortages, and epidemic isolation have all disrupted the price trend of the automotive market to a certain extent, but these factors may not necessarily It is the root cause of inflation and can be seen as a signal.”

If NordicUnion BankThe forecast came true, then this Thursday we will see a shocking May CPI report.Northern EuropeUnion BankSaid:

“We expect that the core inflation rate may be around 4% or slightly higher than 4%. Rising inflation in the United States has become the main concern of the market. Another wave of inflation shocks may occur in June, but the question is whether the market will still believe it. Is this a temporary inflation effect?”

Regarding the next trend of used car prices, market participants are divided into two factions. Jonathan Smoke of Cox Automotive, a car dealer consulting company, pointed out:

“Our several leading indicators at the auction show that the price increase trend may end.”

But Carey Cherner, a 36-year-old used car dealer in Kensington, Maryland, said:

“The demand in the used car market now exceeds the supply, which makes prices crazy. Until the supply far exceeds the demand, (the price of used cars) will not drop significantly. Automakers still need chips to produce new cars, and the prices will keep rising. trend.”

Cherner recently sold a 2001 Ford F-150 that drove nearly 200,000 miles for $7,500, which was more than 50% higher than the price before the outbreak.

Laura Rosner, senior economist at Macro Policy Perspectives, said that this is a “perfect storm,” which can also be seen in the price of used cars.

　　UBS GroupIt also said that due to the lag between the wholesale price and the retail price, the price of used cars in the next few months may still only rise.

Quite a few at presentMidlandThe U.S. government officials and U.S. government officials have also begun to pay close attention to the price of used cars as a basis for predicting the path of future inflation.If commodities represented by second-hand cars rise too fast, the United States may face the first long-term economic overheating in decades.MidlandEconomic decision makers such as Chu and Biden pose a major challenge.

　　MidlandReserve official Brainard also mentioned the risk of second-hand cars driving up inflation. She previously stated that pressure on second-hand car costs “may continue in the summer and is expected to be reversed in the next few quarters.”

Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income and former deputy secretary of the U.S. Department of the Treasury, stated that unprecedented fiscal stimulus and other forms of fiscal expenditure stimulated the economy, superimposed on supply chain disruptions, and led to a “V-shaped” recovery, which eventually lifted prices. .

All in all, this week’s CPI report can focus on the issue of soaring used car prices, which may make the Fed consider in advance to reduce the scale of debt purchases, or at least continue to issue signals this summer to gradually reduce the emergency stimulus of the epidemic in the future.

(Source: Golden Ten Data)

(Editor in charge: DF537)