In 2022, the GDP of Piedmont grew by 2.7%, (+3.9% the Italian variation calculated by Istat). In the fourth quarter of last year – for the eighth consecutive quarter – there was an increase (+1.9%, against +1.7% of the Italian figure) compared to the same quarter of 2021. But war and expensive bills took their toll: for the first time since the pandemic, a negative change compared to the previous quarter (-0.2% the cyclical change). These are the estimates of the Torino Finanza Committee at the Turin Chamber of Commerce, which thanks to the model of the «PilNow» can give precise indications on the trend of the economy on a regional scale well in advance of Istat. Among other things, the reliability of the model developed by the Committee’s researchers is confirmed by the 2021 regional GDP data, which Istat has now released: the percentage change was +7.1%, against the 7.3% estimated by PilNow a year ago.
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«PilNow shows us a Piedmontese economy that is holding up, despite the uncertainty linked to the conflict in Ukraine, with the continuing supply difficulties and inflationary pressures. For the industrial sector of our region, 2023 will be a year full of unknowns. It must be said that the slowdown in gas and electricity prices is excellent news», comments Vladimiro Rambaldi, president of the Torino Finance Committee of the Turin Chamber of Commerce.
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Forecasts still down
As regards the latest data on the Piedmontese GDP, if the cyclical change is negative (-0.2%), the next trend change (compared to the same quarter of the previous year) will continue to decrease. We cannot yet speak of a recession, also because the value of growth in 2022 is so good that 2023 will start with an acquired growth of 0.3 percentage points. If then consumption and exports held, the recession could be avoided.
However, it must be said that the war in Ukraine has affected the manufacturing added value more than that of internal services and therefore the Piedmontese economy has been affected more than others. In fact, in 2021 its performance (+7.1%) was the same as in Italy (+7%), while in 2022 it fell below the national average (+2.7% against +3.9%). We must therefore expect a reduction in the upward trend also in the first quarter of 2023.
The average is 33,861 euros per capita
Growth in the fourth quarter remains in line with the EU average (+1.8%) and clearly exceeds that of Germany (+1.1%). The greater flexibility and variety of the economy, both Italian and Piedmontese, plays in our favor.
The current seasonally adjusted annualized Pilnow in December 2022 it reached a value of 147.5 billion (33,861 euros per capita), corresponding to a constant GDP (at 2015 prices) of 131.3 billion. During the pandemic crisis, Piedmont’s GDP fell from 133.6 to 120.6 billion (constant 2015 euros). There are therefore still 2.3 billion to go back to pre-Covid levels, i.e. 6-9 months of growth, while 11.9 billion are missing, i.e. 4 years of continuous growth, to return to 2008 levels (143.2 billion).
«The data processed by the Torino Finanza Committee show us a fragile and slowing Piedmont, which however does not want to give up on continuing to produce and invest in goods, products and services. A region – adds the president of Unioncamere Piemonte, Gian Paolo Coscia – that does not give up despite a complex picture both nationally and internationally. However, there are many initiatives put in place by local institutions to support the economic fabric, among which we cannot forget those of the Pnrr and the ERDF tenders 21-27 “