Western sanctions against Russia over aggression against Ukraine have strengthened popular support for President Vladimir Putin, researchers have found.
In two studies, they examined the effects of sanctions after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 on subsequent elections in Russia itself, but also in the West using France as an example.
Both in Russia itself and in France, the effect is particularly strong where the economic consequences of the sanctions have also been particularly noticeable.
How are the Western sanctions against Russia working as a result of the war of aggression against Ukraine? So far, economists have mostly looked at the economic consequences. Interim result: Russia seems to be able to cope well with the costs of the war and the sanctions in the short term, but it is already noticeable that they are causing serious damage to Russia in the medium and long term. Economists at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel) have now also examined the political consequences. Their result: the sanctions against Russia increased popular support for President Vladimir Putin. This applies both within Russia itself and to the support of pro-Russian parties in the West, more precisely in France.
Authors of the research paper “To Russia with Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support“ are the researchers from Kiel Julian Hinz and Robert Gold and Michele Valsecchi from the New Economic School in Moscow. Their results refer to the sanctions imposed after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. The researchers show that in the following parliamentary and presidential elections in Russia in 2016 and 2018, the vote share of Putin and his party increased by an average of 13 percent as a direct result of these sanctions increased.
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“The sanctions as a result of the annexation of Crimea led to significant losses in trade and thus in prosperity for the population. In response, more people thought the government course was the right one and rejected the Western positions,” says Hinz.
In a second research paper, “Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections‘ Hinz and Matthieu Crozet from the University of Paris-Saclay also argue that the sanctions imposed in 2014 also influenced elections in democratic countries outside of Russia in favor of Putin. In the 2017 French presidential election, they led to an increase in the share of votes for pro-Russian and far-right candidates. In communities that were particularly affected by the embargo on Russian food and agricultural goods at the time, more than 16,000 votes for the far-right candidate Marine Le Pen can be directly attributed to the sanctions. This corresponds to the voters of a small town. However, the effect is too small to decisively influence the outcome of the elections at the national level.
According to the IfW Kiel, the researchers use complex statistical methods in both papers to isolate the sanctions as the reason for the vote gains. They determine the deviation from a counter-factual scenario – what would have happened if the West had not imposed sanctions.
Details of the studies and their methodology can be found under the following links: Elections in Russia: To Russia with Love? The Impact of Sanctions on Regime Support“ and here: Elections in the West: “Blowback: The Effect of Sanctions on Democratic Elections“
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