The final number of both Deputies as of the Senate will only be known with the count of the generals of October 22but they allow us to begin to glimpse what would happen if the same figures were maintained as in the primaries at the national level.
The first data has to do with the confirmation that, as had been happening, no force will remain with its own quorum in the lower house (129 seats), and it will even be even further away from what the Frente de Todos is now with a total block of 118 legislators in Deputies and with 31 members in the Senate (where 37 are required). Added to this is the reduction of the two majority blocks that was already in the calculations of both Union for the Homeland as Together for Change. What was not in the preliminary readings was the possible exponential growth of Libertad Avanza that would position it as a central actor in any parliamentary negotiation. Until now, this role had been occupied by the Federal Interbloc and the set of provincial parties, with close to a dozen deputies, but LLA would be located in that “middle avenue”, not precisely because of its ideological spectrum but because of its numerical positioning among the two majority forces.
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In Deputies, Freedom Advances It is made up of two of its own legislators (Milei and Victoria Villarroel) added to Carolina Píparo who is also part of the space with her monoblock. If the results of the primary are repeated in October, the LLA could become a caucus of about 40 members, a figure of vital importance for the advancement of any bill.
In the Buenos Aires provincewhere 35 seats are at stake, Unión por la Patria would add close to 12 legislators, headed by Máximo Kirchner who renews his seat, some 11 of Together for Change (with Cristian Ritondo in front) and at least 8 for La Libertad Avanza, with “Bertie” Benegas Lynch and the journalist Marcela Pagano. Here the left could also aspire to a seat, which was close to 3%.
In the Buenos aires city, the alternative led by Maximiliano Guerra of bullrichism prevailed, so he will integrate his competing ballot into the internal one that led Maximiliano Ferraro as head of the list. If the figures are maintained in October, it would put between 6 and 7 national deputies, compared to about 3 from Unión por la Patria with Paula Penacca and at least two from La Libertad Avanza, with Diana Mondino at the helm.
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In Córdobawhere I know 9 benches are renewedLLA ranked first, which would allow it to have between 3 and 4 legislators, followed by Hacemos por Nuestro País, referenced in the outgoing governor Juan Schiaretti with at least two legislators, followed by Juntos por el Cambio, which would be in a similar number (won the intern Luis Picat, from Bullrich). Located in fourth place was Unión por la Patria with close to 8%, which would complicate the entry of legislators.
Santa Fe It is another of the provinces where they are put into play 10 seats for the lower house. LLA also prevailed there, with at least 3 seats to count if the results are repeated, followed by Together for Change with a similar number of places in Deputies (the bullrichista José Núñez won in the internal) and Unión por la Patria in third place with close to two national deputies.
Mendozathe fifth district in number of legislators to be renewed, also won La Libertad Avanza with the possibility of adding two deputies, while Cambia Mendoza with the radical Lisandro Nieri could have the same number of deputies although it was ranked in second place. Unión por la Patria would not reach the floor to have legislators, but the final number should be calculated using the D’Hont system with October numbers.
Electoral participation rebounded but remains among the lowest since the PASO was created
Senate. With a strong scenario of historical bipolaritythe arrival of Libertad Avanza would force reconfigure the strategies of alliances and negotiations that are maintained in the Upper House. It is that with the figures of PASO, Milei’s space could fit eight senators, an unprecedented situation for a new force such as La Libertad Avanza. The surprise occurred in Jujuy, La Rioja and San Luis, where it was ranked in first place, which would allow the entry of two senators per province, while it could access one more for Formosa and San Juan where it was consolidated in second place. In the province of Buenos Aires, the result would be reversed in favor of Juntos por el Cambio of 2017 and once again Peronism would have the two seats with “Wado” De Pedro and Juliana Di Tullio and a place for the opposition, for the list of Maximiliano Abbot who won the internal.