ROME – Electric cars? Italians are willing to buy but to pass from intentions to facts they wait for the price to drop significantly, because currently the gap with respect to thermal cars is still around 30%. The turning point could be in 2030, when the current price gap is expected to be eliminated even for the models of the cheaper and therefore more accessible segments. In 8 years, therefore, the new registrations of electric cars could represent 51% of the total demand in Italy. And in 2050 as much as 77%, or almost 4 out of 5 motorists could buy one.
This is the scenario that emerges from the report “Electric mobility: inevitable or not? Analysis from the point of view of consumers ”, created by Motus-E and Quintegia, with the support of the European Climate Foundation. The report, which analyzes the opinion of 14,052 consumers in Germany, United Kingdom, France, Italy, Spain, Poland and the Netherlands, of which 2,004 in Italy alone, argues that the determining factor for the purchase of an electric car is the price, while autonomy, recharging and operating costs are secondary aspects. It is therefore necessary to accelerate the achievement of price parity, which essentially depends on the reduction in the cost of batteries, on the introduction into the market of models belonging to lower segments and on the use of dedicated platforms, which would allow car manufacturers to save on the cost of production between 10 and 30%. If manufacturers exclusively used platforms dedicated to electric vehicles, price parity between power supplies would be reached by 2028, bringing electricity demand to 80% by 2030. For this purpose, incentives and initiatives at the state and European level they will continue to play an important role.
What car would you buy today: electric, hybrid or petrol?
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The survey also shows that consumers find neither synthetic fuels nor hydrogen a convincing alternative to electric cars. Synthetic fuels – underlines the study – are about 80% more expensive than traditional fuels and it is estimated that price parity cannot be achieved at least before 2037. To make a comparison with electric cars, total costs in 2030 of conventional cars powered by synthetic fuels would be 23% higher. So if between 2025 and 2035 synthetic fuels were introduced on the market, the zero-emission power supply most requested by consumers would still be electric. A scenario that would be reproduced even if a substantial number of hydrogen-powered car models were introduced to the market from 2025 (especially in the medium-high segments) which, it is estimated, would have an average surcharge of 12,000 euros compared to an electric car, destined to drop to 4,800 euros in 2040.
Even access to public charging infrastructure, often cited as one of the main obstacles to buying an electric car, according to 63% of respondents would not be an obstacle to buying an electric car if there were enough points fast charging at all petrol stations. Furthermore, for 77% it is important to have access to charging points in the places they visit (e.g. public car parks in the city center) and 72% would make long journeys with an electric car if there were fast charging stations on the motorway and in the main arteries.
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The study, on the other hand, highlights a 12% lower propensity to buy an electric car if consumers did not have access to home charging. In particular, in order for consumers who do not have access to private charging to take their purchase into consideration, an electric car should cost an average of 4,600 euros less than alternative power supplies. Even the autonomy of the batteries, while relevant, is not considered by the study to be a determining factor in the purchase choice. It has been calculated that if the purchase price and operating costs of the various power supplies were the same, most consumers would buy an electric car if the range was between 270 and 635 km. Having drawn this scenario, the study concludes by arguing that the transition to electric is inevitable. Therefore, institutions are advised not to waste investments on other power supplies, for example synthetic fuels or hydrogen, which should be limited to heavy transport, but to concentrate them on the transition to electricity. To promote parity in the purchase price as soon as possible and to upgrade the public recharge infrastructure and to facilitate the installation of home recharging.
In order to invest resources efficiently, however, it is necessary to design a support plan for the development of the electricity, which is precise and detailed, putting all the main players involved in the transition into a system, private and business consumers, car manufacturers, distribution companies. energy, companies in the supply chain and public bodies. Certainly not an easy task