The political analyst and one of the directors of Casa 3 interrupts her routine to find some reflections on the first hundred days in the presidency of Javier Milei.
The first claim is that he won the elections promising something different, opposed to the policies of the last Kirchnerist governments. This led him to consolidate a new rift between citizens, those who blindly trust the libertarian and those who criticize him.
“As the economy and especially inflationare the principal problem for the Argentines, They are supporting him because they believe that Milei is doing what needs to be done. But be careful, They don’t have their shirt on. If there are no results, I don’t think they will change teams, but they will stop supporting,” Mora Jozami shot in debate mode.
For three months, very little has been mentioned about two people who had a lot of prominence in national politics in recent decades: Cristina Fernández and Mauricio Macri. Both were left under the shadow of the “outsider” and the place of opponent remains vacant. No governor or leader appears on the scene who manages to balance the scales.
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He harsh and targeted speech on social media, mainly in X, sets the agenda for public and political discussion. In that sense, the president’s “challenge is to maintain the affinity” of his voter, but mainly of the electorate of the extinct “Together for Change”, especially those linked to the Pro.
Q: 100 days have passed since Milei’s government. Is there a new rift between the pro and anti Milei?
MJ: It is not new for Argentine political history that there are cracks and opposite poles that socially receive support and criticism. Since the electoral campaign for the presidency of the nation it was clear that Milei came to propose something different, totally opposite to the policies and ideologies of the last Kirchnerist governments.. As at the time there was a society pro or anti Cristina Kirchner, and pro or anti Mauricio Macri, today we can say that we have a pro or anti Milei division. Let us remember that the elections were defined by ballot in which Massa received the vote of over 44% of the population. That part of the citizenry will probably continue to remain against any Milei policy.
Milei knew how to handle this cleavage by depersonalizing it and generating a rift for or against change. In this way he allows many to be “on his side” who, even without agreeing with his ways or some of his ideas, consider the path he is taking to be correct.
In this sense, the challenge that Milei, his party and the national government have, is to maintain the affinity and support of a large part of the PRO voter who was the one who allowed him to go from thirty-something to fifty-something in the runoff. If this changes, the balance is likely to turn negative. On the other hand, there is also a smaller portion of the population, but that is pendulous, and that does not marry anyone, who today may agree with the president’s economic direction, but in the rest of the policies and modes is quite in disagreement. Since the economy and especially inflation are the main problem for Argentines, they are supporting it because they believe that Milei is doing what needs to be done. But be careful, they don’t have their shirts on. If there are no results I don’t think they will change teams, but they will stop supporting.
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Q: Leaders like Cristina and Macri lost prominence. Does Milei capitalize on that?
MJ: I agree with that statement in part. It is clear that Milei is the one who stars on the agenda and monopolizes the conversation either by the content of what it broadcasts or by the channel or the forms it decides to use. He is the president and decides to maintain direct, and often confrontational, communication that puts him on the front page uninterruptedly.
What is happening today is that the recognition of who is the leader of the opposition is vacant. People are not clear about it, and neither are politics. Milei is not opposed to someone specific but to ideas, concepts and specific people in particular cases as she did with Morales in the March 1 speech.
It is true that Cristina lowered her profile, left the daily scene, probably because within their space they are evaluating whether Axel Kicillof is finally the heir, or how and with whom to position themselves in this new context. But in contrast Mauricio regains prominence. He regrouped the PRO, decided to lead it now as president of the party, and begin a new stage. A space that, in last year’s elections, suffered internal conflicts that ultimately ended up harming the chances of electoral victory and that today needs to be focused again. Understand what the direction is. And in that the decision will be on the table of whether or not to accompany, and how much to accompany, the national government. Let us not forget that until not long ago The possibility of a co-government between the LLA and the PRO circulated, in which Mauricio would have been a main decision maker in the formation of that new cabinet. It didn’t happen, but what I want to tell you with this is that Mauricio continues on the field, maintains prominence and builds a new stage of leadership on the national scene, reviving a party that knew how to be the first to raise many of the flags that today They identify with ALL.
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Q: Are there PJ governors who can aspire to generate a counterweight with Milei? Mainly Martin Llaryora, can he hope to enter the scene?
MJ: It’s possible. But it all depends on how alliances between governors prosper, in blocs that effectively generate counterweight. Negotiation between a province and the national government individually is not the same as a block of provincial governments that defend regional interests. At this point I think that, if they achieve unity and align a position along axes, the national government will have to listen more and give in.
Regarding the political color of the governors, I believe that, in this possibility of regional alliances, It’s not something that relevant, as long as there are common interests. An example that recently is proof of this is the support that Nacho Torres, the Governor of Chubut, had in his conflict with Milei, where regardless of the political party, most of the governors supported him against the national executive.
For now, I visualize the counterweight to Milei more in regional blocks of governors, and not as particular figures that can stand out, beyond the fact that Martín Llaryora represents one of the most productive and populated provinces in the country. As I expressed before, the opposition leader to this government is vacant and in even years the possibilities of alliances always inflate but when it comes to defining candidacies the differences emerge.
Q: Does old politics understand the dynamics of networks and how to communicate with the central government in this discursive war over X?
MJ: The dynamics imposed by the national government, in particular Milei, on the networks and mainly on X, are effective and directed at their voters. You can agree or not with the forms, but they continually generate conversation and feed a very important portion of their electorate who find in the president’s statements arguments to defend the management. There is an overstimulation of information, communication is less formal and more direct, and this is possible thanks to society’s acceptance in this context of satiety. People want leaders and opinion formers to be clear, transparent and direct, to get to the point.
From my point of view, being clear and direct is a good way to communicate, but you cannot lose respect, increase the social rift and intervene publicly on the networks always with the shield and the sword. Those who occupy roles of mass and public representation have to be aware of the social impact that their statements can cause. Whether or not the old politics understands the new dynamics in the networks, especially in X, it is difficult to have a clear diagnosis, because the central problem of the old politics lies on a more complex side. The discussion of old politics revolves around how to adapt to these new times, how to reconfigure its DNA, and how to revalue the concept of good politics, the one with which at some point it was identified as the guarantor of solutions, the order and social peace.
Q: How long do people resist the economic shutdown and price increases?
MJ: That’s the million dollar answer. Until people endure the readjustment that means moving to an economy managed by market rules. According to INDEC, there has been a drop in inflation in recent months, the last publication was in February with 13% inflation. Therefore, logic would indicate that the rise in prices of food and services should gradually cease. The commercial opening to international products, that compete in the Argentine market, is along those same lines. This decision can have two consequences: competition and price stabilization, but also the closure of national companies that cannot compete. And therefore people who are left without work.
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Now, do people perceive this drop in inflation? Or on the contrary, you see increasingly inaccessible products and services that were previously in your domestic economy. The point to stop here is that, although society abandoned or applied a reduction in its consumption, 70%, according to surveys, are aware that we could not continue as we were. It was unsustainable. It would seem that in part Milei made people see reason and accepted that change had to be done. She was a candidate who won the elections saying that an adjustment had to be made and that the near future was going to be worse than the situation in 2023.
As long as people continue to believe that Milei and his government are capable of lowering inflationand solve Argentina’s economic problemsthat positive expectation will continue to exist. If the dollar remains stable, prices stabilize, inflation drops month by month and salary increases begin to match it, people will have more predictability and therefore the positive expectation will continue. As long as people continue to believe that in the future they will be better, they will endure.