Is it fifth wave or is it not fifth wave? The doubt about the new surge in infections, caused by the Omicron 2 variant, creates no little confusion. According to some experts it is a surge of the fourth wave, for others it is a new wave. On one thing they are all pretty safe: no bezels and no spacing the infections will continue to rise.
The variant Omicron BA.2, more commonly known as the Omicron 2 variant, is more contagious than the original variant and the intensity of hospitalization waves could block the hospital system again. There mortalityas well as i hospitalizations in intensive care they are decreasing, but if the virus continues to circulate, hospitalizations of fragile and unvaccinated people could increase.
The oscillating trend of the epidemiological curve visible in these days could become the norm, that is, we should learn to live with the peaks of the variant, especially in view of the massive elimination of restrictions. Second Matteo Bassetti this variant is irrepressible with or without restrictions and the only way to ensure that the virus does not spread is to press for vaccination.
Masks and spacing are not enough against Omicron 2
In recent weeks, the trend of the pandemic has returned to concern. The numbers of infections have started to rise again, thanks to the entry of a new variant in the game against the pandemic. This is Omicron’s sub-variant, Omicron BA.2, and represents an ever-increasing percentage of positives week after week. Last week a 40% positive rate for the Omicron 2 variant was reported by laboratories.
Omicron 2 is more contagious (+ 30%) than Omicron, which itself was more contagious than Delta, but they don’t differ much in symptomatology or response to vaccines. The transmission speed, however, entails a further problem: the spread of the virus on fragile or unvaccinated people. Consequently, the curve of intensive care admissions, which continues to decline, could meet a new obstacle and start to grow again.
According to the experts restrictions are no longer enough with this variant, so much so that with or without it will spread easily for a few more weeks, reaching the new peak of the fourth wave before summer. The period coincides with the abandonment of restrictions such as outdoor and indoor masks and the use of the grenn pass. This, together with the decreasing attention on the part of the population and the decline in vaccine protection, could have a considerable effect on the number of infections.
Omicron 2 and the risks associated with contagiousness
Not even a week ago Walter Ricciardi had declared that Italy will soon be forced to do step back. Some expert epidemiologists and virologists speak of mid-May, others of June, but in both cases the time of “free all” does not seem to last long. In fact, the government may have to change its mind on the lifting of restrictions in response to the increase in infections and hospitalizations.
We have said that Omicron 2 is no longer lethal, but with 30% more contagiousness it represents a danger for all those who have not been able or wanted to get vaccinated, as well as other fragile vaccinated categories. At the moment the level of contagiousness is equal to 1 a 10, such as that of measles. The experts then return to draw attention to the vaccinationthe only defense that with or without masks would allow to limit the damage of this new peak of the fourth wave.