Since January, over 3 thousand deaths on average per month among the over 80. An important number that tells how much the virus can still hurt the most fragile even in the middle of the Omicron wave, a variant that has dominated since January and which has been found to be much more contagious of the previous ones even if less dangerous. However, not in the most fragile, such as those who suffer from serious diseases or are elderly, who risk more even if vaccinated with a third dose. In fact, the protection of immunization from severe forms of Covid drops after 4 months. Hence the invitation to make the fourth dose for this category which, however, has been a flop so far: less than 10% of the over 80s who could do it received it.
Over three thousand deaths a month among the over 80s
“In these hours, on my public occasions, I appeal for the second booster for people over 80, for those who live in RSA and the 60-69 year-olds with frailty”, insisted the Minister of Health in recent days Roberto Speranza. “People must still be informed because – the minister stressed – mortality fluctuates between 83, 84, 85 years, and boostering can save lives”. In fact, if you go to check the data, the numbers say that a large part of the deaths recorded in recent months is concentrated in this age group. In fact, if you look at the integrated surveillance bulletins published weekly by the ISS where the numbers of Covid divided by age group are lined up in three months, almost 10 thousand deaths among the over 80s were recorded, in practice over 3 thousand a month : to be exact, 9802 deaths over 80, of these about half (4643) had also received the third dose. In particular, 5262 deaths of over 80s were recorded between January 14th and February 13th, another 2,158 from February 11th to March 13th and finally another 2,382 between March 11th and April 10th.
Vaccinated with the fourth dose 9% of the audience
A month has now passed since the invitation to the fourth dose for over 80 and frail 60-79 years. And over 2 and a half months from that for the very fragile and immunocompromised, which started on March 1. But the fourth dose doesn’t work. On 11 May, 384,600 were administered: according to the official audience (4,422,597 of which 2,795,910 over 80, 1,538,588 fragile patients aged 60-79 and 88,099 guests of the RSA), the rate of national coverage for the fourth doses is 9%, with clear regional differences from 2.4% in Calabria to 18% in Piedmont. These are the data from the monitoring of the Gimbe Foundation. Also on 11 May, 166,483 fourth doses were administered to the immunocompromised, with a coverage of 21% and clear regional differences: from 3.8% in Molise to 73.1% in Piedmont. «The unacceptable regional inequalities on coverage with fourth doses – he comments Nino Cartabellottapresident of the Gimbe Foundation – show that active calling strategies are much more effective than voluntary reservations ».
The risk of the “wait-and-see strategy” of updated vaccines
But as Cartabellotta of the Gimbe Foundation always points out, “the slowness with which the administrations proceed is a sign of a snaking vaccination hesitation, often fueled by questionable health advice, which invites us to wait for the autumn to carry out a further booster with updated vaccines“. In reality, this wait-and-see strategy can be very risky – underlines the president of Gimbe – for three reasons: «First of all, there is no certainty about when these updated vaccines will be available; secondly, the data show both the progressive decline in vaccination efficacy on serious disease and a high mortality in the over 80s already covered with the third dose; finally, the evidence of efficacy of the fourth dose in reducing hospitalizations and deaths is increasingly consolidated. In no uncertain terms: taking into account both the particular fragility of the audience at risk and the high viral circulation, the fourth dose must be done immediately “.