This was revealed by the new weekly report of the Foundation led by Nino Cartabellotta which nonetheless signals the trend towards a constant decline in new infections which go from almost 31,000 in the previous week to over 28,000, with a 7-day moving average of just over 4,000 cases per day. THE TABLES.
20 FEB –
Cases and hospitalizations still decreasing but deaths return with the “+” sign, which grow by 7.2% in a week. This is the photograph of the latest report by the Gimbe Foundation on the progress of the Covid pandemic in our country.
In the week 10-16 February 2023, compared to the previous one, the report indicates a decrease in new cases (28,347 vs 30,901) (figure 1) and precisely an increase in deaths (299 vs 279) (figure 2).
Also decreasing are people in home isolation (182,174 vs 192,436), hospitalizations with symptoms (3,200 vs 3,459) and intensive care (154 vs 163).
In detail, compared to the previous week, the following changes were recorded:
- Deaths: 299 (+7.2%)
- Intensive care: -9 (-5.5%)
- Hospitalized with symptoms: -259 (-7.5%)
- Home isolation: -10,262 (-5.3%)
- New cases: 28,347 (-8.3%)
New cases. “Albeit largely underestimated – he declares Nino CartabellottaPresident of the GIMBE Foundation – the new weekly cases confirm their further decline (-8.3%): from almost 31,000 in the previous week they drop to over 28,000, with a 7-day moving average of just over 4,000 cases per day” (figure 3).
New cases are decreasing in all Regions with the exception of Campania (+2.1%), Friuli Venezia Giulia (+2.5%), Lazio (+1.2%) and Molise (+7.7%): from -3.4% of Basilicata to -31.9% of Marche (table 1).
An increase in new cases was recorded in 25 Provinces: from +0.2% in Bari to +57.1% in Sondrio, while in the remaining 78 Provinces there was a decrease in new cases (from -0.3% in Turin to -53.4% of Macerata); stable Frosinone and Enna with a variation of 0%. In no province does the incidence exceed 500 cases per 100,000 inhabitants (table 2).
Testing. There is a slight decrease in the number of total swabs (-2%): from 547,026 in the week of February 3-9 to 536,080 in the week of February 10-16. In particular, rapid swabs decreased by 6.5% (-27,797), while molecular ones increased by 14% (+16,851) (figure 4). The 7-day moving average of the positivity rate decreased from 5% to 4.2% for molecular swabs and from 5.8% to 5.7% for rapid antigens (figure 5).
Hospitalizations. “On the hospital front – he says Marco Mosti, Chief Operating Officer of the GIMBE Foundation, the number of hospitalizations continues to drop both in the medical area (-7.5%) and in intensive care (-5.5%)”. In absolute terms, the COVID bed places occupied in the critical area, which reached a maximum of 347 on 12 December, fell to 154 on 16 February; in the medical area, having reached a maximum of 9,764 on 12 December, they dropped to 3,200 on 16 February (figure 6). As of 16 February, the national rate of employment by COVID patients is 5% in the medical area (from 1.1% in Molise to 15% in Umbria) and 1.6% in the critical area (from 0% of Basilicata, Marche, Molise, the Autonomous Province of Bolzano, the Autonomous Province of Trento and Valle d’Aosta to 3.6% of Emilia Romagna) (figure 7). “Daily admissions to intensive care units are decreasing slightly – Mosti points out – with a 7-day moving average of 14 admissions/day compared to 15 in the previous week” (figure 8).
Deaths. Deaths are rising again (+7.2%): 279 in the last 7 days, with an average of 43 per day compared to 40 in the previous week.
Vaccines: unvaccinated people. As of 17 February (update at 07.42) there are 6.77 million people over the age of 5 who have not received even a dose of the vaccine (figure 9), of which:
- 6.43 million currently vaccinated, equal to 11.2% of the audience (from 7.4% of the Autonomous Province of Trento to 14.7% of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano);
- 0.34 million temporarily protected as they recovered from COVID-19 for less than 180 days, equal to 0.6% of the audience (from 0.3% in Basilicata to 1.3% in Friuli Venezia Giulia).
Vaccines: third dose. As of February 17 (update at 07.42) there are 7.24 million people who have not yet received the dose booster (figure 10), of which:
- 6.04 million can receive it immediately, equal to 12.7% of the audience (from 8.4% in Lombardy to 20.5% in Sicily);
- 1.2 million cannot receive it immediately as they have been healed for less than 120 days, equal to 2.5% of the audience (from 0.9% in Sicily to 4.8% in Veneto).
Vaccines: fourth dose. The audience for the second booster (fourth dose), updated to 17 September 2022, is 19.1 million people: of these, 12 million can receive it immediately, 1.1 are not eligible immediately as they recovered for less than 120 days and 5.9 million have already received it. As of 17 February (updated at 07.42) 5,946,113 fourth doses were administered, with a moving average of 2,279 administrations per day, down compared to the 3,304 of last week (-31%) “numbers that document a collapse in administrations – says Cartabellotta – which has been going on for over a month” (figure 11). Based on the official audience (19,119,772 of which 13,060,462 over 60, 3,990,080 frail and immunocompromised, 1,748,256 healthcare personnel and 320,974 nursing home guests who do not fall into the previous categories), the national coverage rate for the fourth doses it is 31.1% with clear regional differences: from 14% in Calabria to 44.6% in Piedmont (figure 12).
Vaccines: fifth dose. The audience for the third booster (fifth dose), updated to 20 January 2023, is 3.1 million people: of these, 2.5 million can receive it immediately, 0.2 million are not eligible immediately as they have recovered less than 180 days ago and 0.5 million have already received it. As of 17 February (update at 07.42) 466,880 fifth doses had been administered, with a moving average of 1,576 administrations per day, a decrease compared to the 2,032 of last week (-22.4%) and a downward trend that began at the end of January ( figure 13). Based on the official audience (3,146,516 of which 2,298,047 over 60, 731,224 frail and immunocompromised, 117,245 nursing home guests who do not fall into the previous categories), the national coverage rate for fifth doses is 14.8 % with clear regional differences: from 5% in Campania to 28% in Piedmont (figure 14).
February 20, 2023
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