;Resize=(1200,627)&impolicy=perceptual&quality=mediumHigh&hash=f1e88d8938aefe7feab003ea000ab01f9cffdfaad74431d79ca39e66231519a7 "How we are fooled with sleight of hand when it comes to fat children")
Has the number of obese children increased dramatically in recent years?
Definitely no. Unfortunately, there is not a single representative follow-up study with current data. But if you compare the different sources of trustworthy data, you can see that the rate of obese children and young people in Germany is not only low, it has not increased significantly for many years, but has stagnated at a low level. The current BARMER Doctor Report 2023 has once again clearly documented this.
What exactly did the current BARMER doctor’s report show?
96.45% of all German children & adolescents are not obese and the increase in juvenile (child-adolescent) obesity during Corona 2019-2021 was only a low 0.36% (2019 at 3.19% and 2021 at 3.55%). This means that the current BARMER total figures of 3.55% are even significantly lower than those of the only German follow-up study by the RKI, the KiGGS waves 1 & 2 (last data from 2017): Here the rate of obese children and adolescents was 5.9% in both waves. The 3.55% is almost 40% less – and the BARMER doctor’s report, like the RKI data, can be seen as representative for Germany. That is: really good news and absolutely no reason for “fat alarmism”.
Now one asks oneself: Why are the current reports in numerous media rumoring exactly the opposite: “Alarming, drastic, explosive revealed, extreme, enormous, warning! Children are getting fatter and fatter”? To do this, the “alarmists” use a very simple statistical sleight of hand.
Which sleight of hand was actually used to spread the alarm mood in the media?
If only the “relative risks” (RR) are communicated from study data, then you have significantly higher numbers that make a much more impressive impression. The harder and more meaningful values, however, are the “absolute risks” – and they are often “accommodatingly concealed”. Why? Quite simply: Because they are often far too low to make a headline out of them. The RR are much higher. An 11.3% increase sounds much more “alarmist” than “BARMER warns: childhood obesity is increasing by 0.36%!” But that would be the objectively more correct representation, because the BARMER doctor’s report states (p.142) that there was a “… relative increase in the documentation of the diagnosis of obesity with the code E66 by 11.3 percent, which was documented in 2019 in 3.19 and in 2021 in 3.55 of all children “. Would the 0.36% rise be headline news for the media? No.
Side note: Fortunately, from 2020 to 2021 there was only a minimal 0.4% increase in obese adults: from 10.2% to 10.6%. The myth that “the corona pandemic has made us fat” can finally be dismissed as a fairy tale.
To what extent do the current BARMER figures support the planned ban on advertising for “unhealthy” foods aimed at children?
The current data make this morally acidic measure completely absurd. Because: Firstly, from a scientific point of view, there is no evidence of “unhealthy” food, which is why the 7 big ecotrophological institutions in DACH (e.g. DGE, SGE, ÖGE, BZfE, DIfE ..) categorically reject the division into healthy and unhealthy food in unison and independently of each other.
Secondly, there is no evidence (causal evidence) that these supposedly “bad” products make children sick or fat. And now, thirdly, the doctor’s report also shows that we don’t have a big problem with fat children at all: Because almost 97% of the little rascals are not obese. But it is precisely this group that Minister Özdemir is addressing with his advertising ban, he wants to “protect” them in particular.
So what’s the point of the whole watering can principle if it could only help a small part of the offspring – and only in a highly speculative way, because see the first and second points mentioned above. So what is the goal of Cem Özdemir? Difficult to understand, because parents are currently being presented with vague hypotheses as hard facts and are thus afraid of non-existent dangers against which they and especially their little ones have to be protected by the state with prohibitions. According to evidence-based science, this is untenable. And there is no proof of benefit either. And there never will be. So it remains “Cem’s secret”.
Surf tip: Does Lauterbach not know the difference between correlation and causality?
In-depth questions & answers on the topic:
Why is the Greens’ proposal to ban the advertising of certain foods an example of a lack of data competence?
The proposal is based on the assumption that children see 15 commercials promoting unhealthy foods every day. However, this number is wrong because it is based on an incomplete study that did not take into account the commercial-free broadcaster KIKA and only refers to a special subgroup. This shows a lack of data competence in politics.
Catherine Schuller
Board member of the German Statistical Society as well as managing director and founder of the company “Stat-up”
What basic skills do politicians need in order to act based on evidence?
Politicians need data literacy to critically collect, manage, evaluate and apply data. They must be able to assess the quality and credibility of data and use this to inform their decision-making.
Catherine Schuller
Board member of the German Statistical Society as well as managing director and founder of the company “Stat-up”
What are typical mistakes that politicians make when reading studies?
Politicians often do not read studies or only read them superficially. They tend to blindly trust facts and figures without critically questioning them or obtaining expert opinions. This can lead to incorrect assumptions and decisions.
Catherine Schuller
Board member of the German Statistical Society as well as managing director and founder of the company “Stat-up”
Why is data literacy crucial for a functioning democracy?
Data literacy is important to be able to objectively measure political performance and detect misinterpretation or manipulation of data. This enables voters to make informed decisions and hold politicians accountable.
Catherine Schuller
Board member of the German Statistical Society as well as managing director and founder of the company “Stat-up”