Is the Covid pandemic over (and is there a risk of a new wave next winter)? – breaking latest news

Is the pandemic over? The latest report by the World Health Organization is clear: in the world, between 16 January and 12 February, there were 6.7 million new cases and 64,000 deaths, with a drop of 92% and 47% respectively. % compared to the previous 28 days. The only caveat: the data on infections are underestimated due to a reduction in testing activities.

However, the slowdown was confirmed by hospitalizations, in ordinary wards and in intensive care, which fell respectively by 53% and 24%. The most important drop in infections (-96%) concerns the Western Pacific Region, even if Japan and China alone are responsible for more than 40% of global cases (almost three million).

In the European Region, from January 16 to February 12, there were 1.2 million new cases: the highest number in Germany (297,000), followed by Russia (216,000) and Italy (138,000). Deaths are also decreasing: 11,000, 52% less than the previous month. Tops the blacklist United Kingdom (2,269 dead), Italy (1,393) and Russia (1,153).

Looking at data from the World Health Organization we can reasonably assume that the pandemic is winding down – he says Paul Bonanni, full professor of Hygiene at the University of Florence and member of the Italian Society of Hygiene, Preventive Medicine and Public Health -. Please note, when it comes to viruses, surprises are always around the corner, so it’s best to avoid categorical statements. As the WHO itself states, the drop in infections is also due to a smaller number of “official” tests. Looking at deaths and hospitalizations (even in intensive care), which cannot be underestimated, the trend is very clear. It is legitimate to assume that the virus is moving towards a phase of endemization, i.e. a more stable and less aggressive coexistence with humans.

Another signal of normality comes from the decision of the EU member states to gradually eliminate, by the end of February, the mandatory tests for those arriving from China.

Some fear concerns the recombinant variant XBF (called Bythos), another derivative of Omicron, of which cases are reported in about fifty countries. The latest variants all derive from Omicron – explains Bonanni -: probably Sars-CoV-2 does not have the possibility of giving life to a new strain, it could have “exhausted” its cards. Also because the mutation possibilities, which mainly concern the Spike protein, are not infinite. Furthermore, for several months the virus has encountered a population with widespread immunity, both due to vaccination and the wide natural circulation of the infection, two factors that guarantee us an extremely effective hybrid immunity.

Another doubt related to next winter: Is there a risk of a new wave? Difficult to answer – clarifies Paolo Bonanni -, even if a certain optimism, in the face of today’s numbers, is admissible. Whatever happens, the anti-Covid vaccination booster remains essential for fragile subjects of all ages, including children, and the elderly, just as the flu vaccination is very important.