The middle class is struggling more and more, after three tormented years that have gone through a lockdown and a global economic crisis from which we are slowly recovering. The confirmation, yet another, arrived this morning in Milan during the presentation of the first Report Of Overthe Vulnerability and Resilience Observatory born from the alliance between Acli – Christian Association of Italian Workers of Lombardy and research institutions Irs – Institute for Social Research e Ars – Association for social research. The report returns an interesting and, in some ways unprecedented, information framework on the Lombard middle class. The first part analyzes the economic condition, spending capacity and vulnerability profiles of Lombard citizens in the three-year period 2020-2022through a longitudinal analysis (which will be structurally updated and expanded in the coming years) of the tax returns of just under 300,000 Caf Acli usersdivided between employees and pensioners, whose average income actually coincides with that of the regional population as a whole.
A not small portion of the citizens of Lombardy is therefore at risk, and some factors more than others determine greater inequalities. In particular, the report found: gender inequalities (women have significantly lower incomes than male taxpayers, equal to 17,068 euros in 2021 against 21,589 euros for men, and are more exposed to the risk of vulnerability); generational inequalities (those over 67 have median incomes for the highest 44% of taxpayers aged 30-45; moreover, pension incomes are the only ones to have held up in the year of the first lockdown: between 2019 and 2020, among retirees, there was even an increase in income of +0.8%, against a decrease in ‘1.6% for workers); inequalities between families (among taxpayers with dependent children, there is a very low median income value, equal to around 12,000 euros compared to over 21,000 of those who have none, confirming the greater exposure to the risk of poverty among families with children who, as Istat reminds us, they also represent the family typology with a greater incidence among the absolute poor, especially if numerous and with minors); citizenship inequalities (those born abroad are certainly more exposed to slipping into situations of vulnerability, with declared incomes equal to around 50% of natives’ incomes: 10,878 euros against 20,122 euros in 2021, with lower spending power); geographical inequalities (largely related to the different structure of the labor market: the highest incomes are recorded in Milan, followed by the provinces of Monza-Brianza and Lecco; at the other extreme, the province in which the lowest average incomes are recorded is instead Brescia, while the wealthiest provinces are also the most unequal in terms of income distribution; educational inequalities (the pandemic has accentuated inequalities in the opportunity to access education, and the analysis of expenses relating to this item confirms important gaps between more and less well-off taxpayers of the Lombard panel; only a third of taxpayers with dependent children can afford private or equivalent non-college education expenditure and the incidence of taxpayers who declare expenses to cover their children’s university increases by as much as five times as income increases, as does the average amount of the aforementioned expense); health inequalities (healthcare and personal assistance expenses are the most reported, on average by almost four out of five taxpayers; almost all types of health-related expenses, from medicines to specialist visits, grow as income increases; dental and vision well-being expenses, more frequently incurred by taxpayers with dependent children, are typically used as a proxy for the level of well-being or economic deprivation of families: it is no coincidence that the richest taxpayers analyzed by the Report spend an average of 25% more in optics and 20% more for dental expenses than the poorest fifth of the population.
Expenditures for people with disabilities or non-self-sufficiency do not seem to be influenced by income growth, as there is substantial homogeneity between income brackets, both in terms of the amount of expenditure incurred and the share of taxpayers who have declared them, however very limited (only 2% of the panel). However, with reference to health care costs and non-self-sufficiency expenses, what really makes the difference is the sustainability of the expenditure and its overall impact, which increases dramatically as income decreases. Consider, for example, the costs for the purchase and/or adaptation of vehicles which, with an average value of over 15 thousand euros per year, account for almost 90% of the income of the taxpayers who support them. This middle class, on closer inspection, therefore reveals only an apparent stability.
The second part of the report is closely related, and is dedicated to an in-depth analysis of the dimension of vulnerability such as that of the non-self-sufficiency of a family member, promoting the most extensive research ever carried out on Lombard caregivers: specifically, it is a survey of almost 2,000 users of the ACLI patronage in Lombardy. Basically, when a family already under pressure also has a load of assistance for sick, elderly or people in difficulty, they risk not really making it. The photograph that emerges is in some ways the negative version of the previous one, but also in this case it highlights various elements of vulnerability, such as the thinning of family structures, the growth of “caregiver-grandparents”, the residual nature of the use of services whether public or private.
The research outlines a post-pandemic cultural change which sees, especially in younger caregivers, a new and strong awareness of the responsibility of public institutions in the care of frail elderly people and, consequently, a greater demand for services and supports instead of simple monetary contributions . Overall, the 2023 Report shows a chiaroscuro Lombard middle class, with individual and family situations which, although protected, are increasingly exposed to the risk of vulnerability, hence the need for a more convinced interpretation of resilience as a community, infrastructural element , multidimensional rather than individual/familial.
“We are going through years of extensive, profound changes, transformations and processes which, even in rich Lombardy, often lead to an increase in fragility, inequality, the risk of vulnerability for a growing part of citizens”, he comments Martin Troncatti, president of Acli Lombardia. “A broader and deeper knowledge of these changes represents a necessary step, both for those interested in research and for those involved in policies: it is in this context that the Vulnerability and Resilience Observatory fits in”.